Omar Rashid 
New Delhi: The results of the bypoll elections in Uttar Pradesh and the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will no doubt have a big bearing on the future course of national politics. But also at stake is the brand of Adityanath, the Uttar Pradesh chief minister who campaigned actively in the three states, marketing his strategy of Hindu consolidation through the alarmist slogan of ‘Batenge toh katenge (if we stand divided , we will be slaughtered)’.
Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) poor performance in Uttar Pradesh in the 2024 general election, Adityanath focused his energies on rebuilding the party’s support base in the nine assembly seats bound for by-poll elections. He toured these constituencies multiple times in August and September, launching and inaugurating projects and job schemes worth more than Rs 5,000 crore, The Wire calculated as per official figures. Then, as the election dates were announced, Adityanath unleashed a blitz of public meetings in November, dividing time between Maharashtra, Jharkhand and his own state.
Over a period of 13 days — November 5 to 18 — Adityanath addressed as many as 37 election public meetings and two roadshows in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh. That’s on an average three campaign rallies a day. He held 13 rallies in Jharkhand, where he held back no punches in his attempt to demonise the minority Muslim community by dubbing them as infiltrators, land grabbers and stone pelters.
Even in Maharashtra, Adityanath repeated the polarising catchphrase “Ek rahoge toh nek rahoge. Safe rahoge. Bate thay toh kate thay,” which means, “Stay united and you will be fine. You will be safe. Stay divided and you will be slaughtered.” He addressed 11 rallies in the state.
In Uttar Pradesh, Adityanath held 13 rallies and two roadshows. He addressed two rallies each in Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar), Phulpur (Prayagraj), Khair (Aligarh) and Majhawan (Mirzapur) constituiences. In Kundarki (Moradabad), Karhal (Mainpuri) and Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), he held a rally each. He also addressed a rally and roadshow each in Ghaziabad and Shishamau (Kanpur).
Through Adityanath’s campaign and speeches, his polarising slogan emerged as the key messaging tactic of the saffron party, with both the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi endorsing it.
In his campaign, Opposition leader Akhilesh Yadav made the elections a mandate on Adityanath’s political future. If the BJP lost in Maharashtra and performed badly in Uttar Pradesh, Adityanath would be replaced as the chief minister, Yadav said in rally after rally. Yadav also implied that Adityanath was campaigning hard to salvage his own position after a dismal performance in the general elections held in the summer.
Also read: In Jharkhand and Maharashtra, Yogi Unleashes Rhetoric of Hatred to Mobilise Hindus Behind BJP
It is true that in recent months, the Adityanath model of governance has been facing heat on different fronts, especially on the question of jobs and law and order. The Bahraich communal violence in which large-scale vandalism and arson took place over two days truly exposed his claims of tight law and order in the state.
Adityanath’s government was also pushed on the backfoot after the killing of a Yadav youth, Mangesh Yadav, in an alleged “encounter” after the Opposition accused the police of executing him because of his Yadav background. And in recent weeks, Adityanath’s ‘bulldozer’ model of demolishing properties and homes of rivals as well as ordinary citizens accused in criminal cases without following due process of law, finally received a pushback from the top judiciary in the country with two adverse judgments.
A three-judge bench, including former Chief Justice D.Y. Chandrachud on November 6, directed Adityanath’s government to pay a senior journalist Manoj Tibrewal a compensation of Rs 25 lakh after his ancestral house and shop were unlawfully demolished by officials for widening a road in Maharajganj. “Bulldozer justice is simply unacceptable under the rule of law” and “Justice through bulldozers is unknown to any civilised system of jurisprudence,” the court said in a scathing tear-down of the Adityanath model.
Then, on November 13, the apex court described ‘bulldozer justice’ as “totally constitutional” and equated it to a “lawless state of affairs,” as it prescribed individual costs on officials who were involved in such unlawful demolitions of homes and properties of people merely because they were accused in criminal cases.
A day later, the government received another setback after it was forced under pressure by students and job aspirants to roll back its arbitrary decision of conducting provincial civil services examinations in a staggered manner. The centre of the protests was Prayagraj, where one of the nine seats, Phulpur, that voted in the bypolls is located. Then, in the latest incident, the Adityanath government received criticism after several infants were killed in a fire at a government hospital in Jhansi.
The outcome in the bypolls will also be a reflection on Adityanath’s governance. Even before the bypoll elections were announced in Uttar Pradesh, Adityanath started campaigning in these constituencies through government events. He distributed tablets, loans and job appointment letters in ‘rogzar melas’ during his visit to these nine districts in August and September.
During his extensive tours, Adityanath launched or inaugurated 8,822 development projects worth Rs 5,755 crore in these nine constituencies alone. In Katehari seat in Ambedkar Nagar, a tightly-locked constituency, Adityanath launched or opened as many as 6,778 projects worth Rs 1,231 crore. In Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), Adityanath laid the foundation of or opened 91 projects worth Rs 159 crore. This included laying the foundation stone of a mini sports stadium in Qasampur Khela Gaon at the cost of Rs 78 crore.
The election results in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, to some extent would also be a commentary on Adityanath’s polarising slogan of ‘batenge toh katenge’. If the BJP fares well, it will get emboldened to further propagate the slogan in order to consolidate Hindus.
Also read: Arson, Loot and ‘Unidentified’ Vandals: How Muslims Were Targeted in Bahraich
Any adverse result will raise questions over the potency of such communal rhetoric, and in particular, show Adityanath and his much-publicised slogan in poor light.
It must be noted that in the 2024 election, the BJP left no stones unturned to communalise the elections by pitting OBCs and Dalits against Muslims. However, the results were not desirable for the saffron party as it could not efficiently handle the consequences of its misadventure of a slogan, 400-par, which raised concerns among reserved sections of the society that the party could scrap reservations by altering the constitution.
In this election, too, Adityanath indulged in communal rhetoric, comparing the Opposition Samajwadi Party to the Muslim League and reminding Hindus about the demolition of temples in Mathura and Varanasi under Mughal rule. At a rally in Prayagraj, Adityanath said that the “biggest challenge” in the country today was that “people who are trying to divide people on the basis of castes are working as enemies of the country.”
“They will divide you in the name of caste and walk on the policy of appeasement,” said Adityanath. A positive result is necessary for Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh, not only to salvage his own record after a dismal show in the summer, but also to arrest the flow of the backward castes and Dalits towards the Opposition.