A Test for Ruling Parties as Bypolls in Five Crucial Constituencies Get Underway

New Delhi: Voting for bypolls in five crucial assembly constituencies spread across four states ended on June 19, amidst pitched campaigns by all parties in the fray. The bypolls will test the political mettle of ruling parties, especially in West Bengal and Kerala, where assembly elections are slated next year, while in Gujarat and Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party that has kept a low profile since its loss in Delhi assembly polls, will look to recover some ground. 

The constituencies where bypolls were held are Nilambur (Kerala), Kaliganj (West Bengal), Ludhiana West (Punjab), Visavadar and Kadi (Gujarat).  

The Election Commission of India released the provisional voter turnout at 5 pm. Kerala's Nilambur saw the highest turnout with 70.76%, closely followed by Kaliganj at 69.85%. Gujarat's Kadi saw a turnout of 54.49%, while a similar number of people (54.61%) cast their votes in Visavadar. The high-profile Ludhiana West seat saw a poor turnout of 49.07%.

Nilambur (Kerala)

The polls in Nilambur are particularly interesting, as the seat was vacated by two-time Left-backed independent legislator P.V. Anvar after his much-publicised fallout with the chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Anvar, who began as a leader of Congress-backed Kerala Students Union has had a patchy political journey; he joined the breakaway faction Democratic Indira Congress led by the late K. Karunakaran after breaking ranks with the Congress and later joined hands with the Left Democratic Front as an independent contestant from Nilambur. 

He was seen as a zealous supporter of chief minister Vijayan but later blamed the state police for its alleged anti-minority mindset. He accused the police under Vijayan of stigmatising Muslim residents of Malappuram district as “gold smugglers” and “hawala operators” and severely lashed out at the chief minister for its conspicuous silence. 

Anvar even attempted to seek support from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, only to be rebuffed by Tamil Nadu chief minister M.K. Stalin. Finally, he joined the Trinamool Congress, declared that he would lead its expansion in Kerala, and submitted his resignation as the Nilambur MLA to evade anti-defection law. 

Malappuram: Polling officials receive electoral material at a polling center on the eve of Nilambur Assembly by-election, at Chungathara Marthoma Higher Secondary School, in Malappuram district, Kerala, Wednesday, June 18, 2025. Photo: PTI.

Although popular, Anvar is in the fray as an independent candidate without backing of any political front and is less likely to repeat his previous performances. The Left Democratic Front-led by Vijayan will look to win the seat to establish its control in the important Malabar seat. Vijayan has picked M. Swaraj, who has sharply risen in stature in the CPI(M) over the last few years, as the LDF’s candidate, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front has nominated its 2016 candidate Aryadan Shoukath to the constituency. Shoukath’s father Aryadan Mohammad had won the seat eight times. 

The UDF faces a challenge too, as it has lost two successive state elections and a win from its traditional seat will boost its confidence and galvanise edgy allies like the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). In any case, the contest is likely to be tight as Anvar has won the seat with a margin of only 2,700 votes in 2021 when he defeated Congress’s V.V. Prakash. 

Ludhiana West (Punjab)

The urban constituency in Punjab has suddenly become keenly-watched fare, as its electoral outcome will signal whether the ruling Aam Aadmi Party still enjoys its popularity in the state or not. Many observers have noted that the AAP government in the state has been facing a lot of criticism from many sections of the population. 

Since Ludhiana (West) is an affluent constituency, majorly comprising Hindu Khatris, the BJP is looking to make a comeback and has fielded the popular Jiwan Gupta to take on AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP and industrialist Sanjeev Arora, who is contesting his maiden election. 

The seat fell vacant after sitting AAP legislator Gurpreet Bassi Gogi’s death in an accident. AAP’s top brass – Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Atishi – have camped in Ludhiana to campaign for Arora, and is said to be overseeing all preparations. In 2022, Gogi defeated Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a little over 7,500 votes. Ashu has been fielded by the Congress again. 

The BJP believes that its candidate Gupta will get votes from traditional AAP and Congress supporters, and is likely to challenge the two parties like never before. However, the BJP has never won this seat. On the other hand, the Congress has won the seat six times since its creation in 1977, while the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) has won it twice. 

In this image released by @msisodia via X on June 17, 2025, AAP leader Manish Sisodia during a roadshow for the Ludhiana West Assembly constituency by-elections, in Ludhiana, Punjab. Photo: X/@msisodia via PTI.

The saffron party, however, hopes to repeat its Lok Sabha performance in the seat. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Ludhiana seat was won by Congress’s Amarinder Singh Raja Warring but the BJP’s candidate Ravneet Singh Bittu, who had recently defected from the Congress, had taken a lead in the assembly segment. The party’s performance will also be a test case for Sunil Jakhar, who was made the party president of the state after the former senior Congress leader defected to the BJP.

The SAD has fielded Parupkar Singh Ghuman, a prominent lawyer in the city, and it will look to claw back into relevance after a series of electoral setbacks in the state. However, its presence in the urban seat has been marginal lately.

Kaliganj (West Bengal)

Here, the contest appears to be polarised between the ruling Trinamool Congress and a fledgling BJP. While TMC has fielded Alifa Ahamed, daughter of the sitting MLA Nasiruddin Ahamed who died of a cardiac arrest, the BJP has nominated Ashish Ghosh.

The seat has historically seen a tight contest between the TMC and the Congress, the latter having been dominant for many years. However, over the last decade, the TMC has registered its strong organisational presence in the seat, while Congress has weakened considerably. 

The shift can be seen in the difference between the electoral outcomes of 2016 and 2021. In 2016, the Congress’s Hasanuzzaman S.K. narrowly defeated the TMC ‘s Nasiruddin Ahamed but the grand old party faded into a distant third position in 2021 registered on around 12% votes. TMC’s Ahamed won the seat with over 53% votes in 2021 but the BJP, which had received only 5.56% votes in 2016, shot to the second position with nearly 31% votes, indicating a strong Hindu-Muslim polarisation.

The saffron party has yet again attempted to polarise the elections along religious lines by raking up memories of the recent Murshidabad riots where Hindus were allegedly attacked by Muslim protestors against the Waqf (Amendment) Act. It has attempted to consolidate Hindu votes, while hoping a division among the Muslims between the TMC and the Congress in the minority-dominated seat. 

The Congress has fielded a relatively new face, Kabil Uddin. 

TMC candidate Alifa Ahmed during a campaign rally for the bypoll of Kaliganj Assembly constituency, in Nadia district, West Bengal, Tuesday, June 10, 2025. Photo: PTI.

Visavadar and Kadi (Gujarat)

The saffron party will look to consolidate its presence in Kadi, which it has won with over 50% votes in the last two elections. However, the Visavadar seat has turned out to be an interesting battleground, with the Aam Aadmi Party fielding Gopal Italia, who shot to fame during the 2015 Patidar agitation in the state. 

Kejirwal has himself addressed multiple rallies in Visavadar in support of Italia. AAP’s Bhupendrabhai Gandubhai Bhayani had won Visavadar in Gujarat’s Junagadh in 2022, but his recent switch to the BJP left the seat vacant. 

Bhayani had won the seat by securing nearly 45% votes and defeated BJP’s Harshadkumar Ribadiya by over 7000 votes. However, the BJP did not field Bhayani for the bypolls and has instead chosen its former district president Kirit Patel. Making the contest triangular is Congress’s Nitin Ranpariya, who will be looking to gain a foothold in this former party bastion. 

BJP appears to be confident in Kadi which it secured over 50% even amidst strong anti-incumbency sentiment against the party in 2017. The chief opposition here is the Congress, which has only fallen through the charts in the last two elections.

An earlier version of this piece had mistakenly said that P.V. Anvar is not contesting the bypolls.

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