As BJP Bows to Caste Census, How Will the Clash Between Social Justice Politics and Hindutva Play Out?

After nearly 11 years of political dominance built on Hindu consolidation, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken a surprising turn by agreeing to a caste census – an idea long resisted by its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

The decision marks a major victory for the Congress party and the wider Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which had centred their 2024 campaign around caste-based enumeration as a tool for social justice.

The Modi government’s announcement to include caste enumeration in the nationwide census represents a shift in the BJP-RSS axis’s ideological stance. It also lays bare the contradictions in their position on caste politics. While the RSS has long advocated for Hindu unity over caste divisions, this move acknowledges the persistent relevance of caste-based mobilisation in Indian politics.

Historically, caste data collection in India began under British colonial rule in the late 19th century. The last full-scale caste census occurred in 1931, identifying over 4,000 castes.

Post-independence, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru discontinued caste enumeration (except for SCs and STs), believing it would hinder the building of a casteless, unified nation.

Yet caste remained central to governance, policy and political mobilisation.

The 1980 Mandal Commission, based on 1931 data, recommended 27% reservations for other backward classes (OBCs), which V.P. Singh implemented in 1990. Despite fierce resistance from upper-caste groups and right-wing parties, this move transformed Indian politics by making caste a key factor in electoral arithmetic.

In 2011, the UPA government conducted a socio-economic survey, but the caste data was never released – officially due to errors, though political hesitation played a role.

The call for a caste census was rejuvenated by socialist leaders like Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav, and by Kanshi Ram’s slogan, “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedari” – demanding representation proportionate to population.

In recent years, the Bihar caste survey conducted by the Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan government reignited the debate nationally. The survey, published in 2023 before Nitish’s defection to the BJP’s camp, revealed that OBCs and extremely backward classes made up 63% of Bihar’s population.

Interestingly, the BJP initially challenged the Bihar caste survey in court. Modi remained silent when an all-party delegation from Bihar met him in 2021 to press for a national caste count. The BJP and RSS had dismissed the idea of a caste census as ‘divisive’. Modi derided it as an “urban Naxal” idea, and RSS commentary warned that such surveys were attempts to “fracture Hindu society”.

But the issue persisted as a cornerstone of the opposition’s campaign. Rahul Gandhi’s embrace of a caste census began with the Bharat Jodo Yatra and intensified during the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in 2024. He framed the demand as part of a broader quest for social and economic justice, often repeating: “Gine nahi jaoge toh sune nahi jaoge. Bahut hui vinti, ab INDIA karega ginti.”

His messaging resonated. Congress leaders adopted #GintiKaro in their social media bios, and the party’s most circulated campaign video focused on caste-based discrimination and data.

Rahul Gandhi's speeches in parliament after becoming Lok Sabha leader of opposition kept the issue front and centre. Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party and Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal supported him, with Akhilesh coining the term PDA (pichhda, Dalit, alpsankhyak) to mobilise backwards, Dalits and minorities together.

The BJP, facing heat from this united front, shifted gears. With the 2024 election results showing a significant drop – from 303 to 240 seats – particularly in states with large OBC populations, the party needed to recapture the social justice narrative. Its decision to greenlight the caste census after years of public resistance reflects the electoral pressure exerted by a reinvigorated opposition.

This shift, however, may unsettle the BJP’s traditional upper-caste base. For over a decade, the party had balanced upper-caste dominance with the strategic inclusion of non-dominant OBCs, through ministerial representation, local leadership and the appropriation of backward caste icons. The caste census could realign power structures in ways that challenge this delicate balance.

Also read: Modi’s Somersault on Caste Census is a U-turn Fraught with Long-Term Challenges for the RSS-BJP

For the RSS and BJP, which have long projected a vision of Hindu unity superseding caste identities, the caste census represents an ideological compromise. It also risks validating the opposition's claim that caste-based inequality is foundational to Indian society, and that affirmative action must be expanded.

For Rahul Gandhi and the Congress, this moment is especially significant. The party, long dominated by upper-caste leaders, has historically struggled to build a backward-caste base. Many Congress leaders were lukewarm to the caste census idea; in Karnataka, the state government delayed publishing its caste report amid internal dissent. Yet Rahul Gandhi’s persistence has now positioned the Congress as a credible advocate for social justice.

In his press conference following the cabinet’s announcement, Rahul Gandhi demanded clarity on the timeline and a budget for the census exercise, and proposed two follow-up measures: removal of the 50% reservation cap and implementation of Article 15(5) of the constitution, which enables reservations in private, unaided, non-minority educational institutions.

This opens the door for a new political era: one where the axis of competition shifts from religious polarisation to demands for equity and representation. If the opposition sustains its focus on caste justice, it could reshape national politics, fostering a broader democratisation of power.

The question remains: can the BJP and RSS control the political consequences of caste data once it is released? And will the Congress and its allies be able to institutionalise this momentum into long-term support from marginalised communities?

Either way, the Modi government's approval of a caste census has ushered in a paradigm shift. What was once dismissed as divisive is now at the centre of national political discourse. The road ahead is uncertain – but its direction has unmistakably changed.

Zoya Hasan is professor emerita with the Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Avishek Jha is a doctoral candidate at the University of Melbourne.

This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.

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