The election season kicks off next week in real earnest when the first phase of voting in Chhattisgarh will take place in the mainly southern and western tribal areas of the state. This state is a must-win for the Congress, who bounced back into power in 2018 after 13 years in the wilderness.
Its huge majority, winning 68 of 90 seats, made it impervious to any ‘Operation Lotus,’ which toppled Congress coalition government in Karnataka and Maharashtra and almost succeeded in Rajasthan. And if opinion polls are to be believed this is one state that they are ahead in.
Two questions that arise are whether they can defend this majority, and if so by how much since a small minority in a small assembly leaves them open to defections.
Almost all opinion polls show that the Congress is losing ground and the range of victory is from a small 5 seat majority to a 15 seat on. In a poll of polls of the last four opinion polls (see below) the Congress would seem to be coming home with a working majority.
The problem with these polls is that all but one of them has the others (which includes the BSP) at a very low percentage when compared to previous assembly elections where they have averaged 22%.
Of course this vote has been split between the BSP, Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh, the Gondwana Gantantra Party and independents (including rebels). But with the BSP and GPP coming together and JCCJ without Jogi not a real force, any consolidation here could make life difficult for the major parties in key seats ST/SC.
Interestingly, it would seem that the BJP actually suffers more from third-party candidates in assembly elections. In the chart below, the BJP vote falls in each assembly election that of ‘others’ rises.
Data: deKoder.com
There is an acute fall in support for the BJP in assembly elections compared to the general elections. In assembly elections, they average only 39%, while in the general elections they storm close to 50%, winning all but 1 or 2 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats. More importantly, the Congress vote bank seems to remain quite steady at around 40% whatever type of election it may be. That steady support, despite breakaway parties, and the annihilation of its leadership in the bomb attack of 2013 probably gives some confidence to Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel that he will be able to hold off the BJP challenge.
The Congress did remarkably well in 2018, it not only won, but it won big time. With 45% of the vote, its highest in 15 years, it swept 75% of the seats literally hammering the BJP in each of the three zone. In the South, which votes this week, the BJP really underperformed.
If the BJP is going to make a match of it, it really needs to do well in this first phase and exploit the reported disillusionment of the tribal population with the Bhupesh Baghel government. To succeed in a comeback to power the BJP will need capture more than the marginals that the Congress holds.
There are only 22 seats that the Congress holds with a margin of less than 10%. To pull those back the BJP needs a swing of 5% and while that is not beyond the realm of possibility, since 2018 was its worst performance ever, even those 22 seats would leave the Congress with a tiny majority. Of course, the BJP has much experience in reversing tiny majorities, so the big question will be whether the voters in Chhattisgarh are displeased enough with the Baghel government to move decisively to the BJP. The BJP, even when it has won, has won by a small margin of votes that has given it benefit of being first past the post. Surprisingly they have never won more than 50 seats or got more than 41% of the vote. That means the BJP needs to perform well across the board in order to win back power.
While anti-incumbency will hurt MLAs who have not performed, that may not by itself be enough to topple the Congress.
The BJP’s campaign rests on claims of corruption, with Union home minster Amit Shah calling Chhattisgarh as the “ATM” of the Congress. They also accuse the Congress of being soft on conversion to Christianity and not supporting Sanatan Dharma. Baghel has focussed on a Chattisgarhi identity and soft Hindutva to maintain the Congress’s goodwill and is promising a caste survey in the state where SC/ST and OBCS are over 70%. Both parties have promised a lot of giveaways so that is unlikely to be a major deciding factor.
What could decide the election is the will to win. So while RSS cadre and Narendra Modi campaigning will boost the party’s chances, will saving the BJP government in MP take precedence and leave a headless BJP in Chhattisgarh to fend for itself?
Ishwari Bajpai is senior journalist and TV producer who has covered and analysed Indian elections since 1980 with UNI, ITV & NDTV.
