Despite comprehensive victories registered by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recent assembly elections of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, well-wishers of the Congress have shown surprising optimism in their interpretation of the results. They say given the fact that the Congress has retained much of its vote shares in these states, it still has the wherewithal to challenge the Narendra Modi-led BJP in the Lok Sabha polls next year.
The optimism, however, ignores the current predicament of Indian politics and the fact that the challenge before the country is not merely electoral. It is a more serious socio-political challenge, and merely thinking of it in terms of an electoral solution without a simultaneous battle for the soul of this civilisation can be a misleading exercise.
The big question that the opposition forces must face sooner or later is whether they have the political and ideological strength to stop the divisions in the country and halt the multiplication of Hindutva votes at the grassroots.
A group of women hold a poster of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at an election rally in Rajasthan. Photo: Facebook/Narendra Modi.
Muslims compensate for Congress’s loss of Hindu vote
A closer analysis of the assembly elections indicates that in Madhya Pradesh, where Scheduled Caste and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) together make up for around 65% of the population, Congress has lost 4% and 6% of its votes among these communities respectively. On the other hand, the BJP has not only retained its vote share among the SCs at 33%, but its vote share among the OBCs has risen by 7% from 48% to 55%. It has also increased its vote share among the Scheduled Tribes (STs) by 9% from 30% to 39%.
While the Congress’s vote share among STs has also increased by 11% as compared to 2018, its highest increase of votes is among the Muslims. In 2018, only 52% of Muslims voted for Congress according to the CSDS-Lokniti Post Poll survey but this time around 85% of Muslims voted for it. A phenomenal increase of around 33% of Muslim votes is the single most reason behind the Congress holding on to 40.40% votes in spite of its loss of votes in its other social bases.
The Muslim population of the MP is around 6.5% and Congress might have reached its peak share among the Muslim community. Among many other things, one of the major reasons behind the shift of OBCs and Adivasis towards BJP is the vicious Hindutva campaign by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and its organs consistently throughout the year without any political challenge. This will be amplified during the months leading up to the Lok Sabha elections resulting in further polarisation of Hindu OBCs and others. The INDIA bloc or the Congress does not seem to have grassroots ideological or organisational counters to this challenge. Nor do they seem to have a vision of cultivating the same to provide an alternative.
In Chhattisgarh, Congress obtained a vote share of 43.04% in 2018, and in 2023, in spite of its humiliating defeat, has retained 42.23% of the vote share. Thus, an argument is being made that Congress’s social base is intact.
The Congress continues to have a good social base among the SCs in Chhattisgarh which has been reflected in the increase of SC votes by 6% to 48% when compared to 42% in 2013 as reflected in the CSDS analysis. But its vote share among STs, who constitute 32% of the state population, has decreased by 5%, from 47 to 42%, and among OBC a further decrease of 3%, from 42 to 39%.
Also read: Three Things BJP’s Definitive Victory in the Assembly Elections Tells Us
This decline in Congress’s vote share among Hindus in the state is majorly compensated by, again, a phenomenal increase of Muslim votes by 12% (41% to 53%). Unlike MP, in Chhattisgarh, the BJP has increased its vote base among Muslims five-fold, from a mere 5% to 27%. Not only that, the BJP has increased its vote share among SCs of the state by 14% (25% to 39%), among the STs by 21% (25% to 46%), and among OBC by 5%.
Thus, the honour of 40% vote share of the Congress is majorly due to the arithmetic increase of votes by Muslims. Unlike MP, it is not saturated in Chhattisgarh, but BJP itself has become a strong contender for Muslim votes here.
In Rajasthan, Congress polled 39.53% votes, hardly 1.11% less than in 2018. The BJP has increased its vote share by more than 2% to 41.69%.
Now, what the CSDS survey informs us is that though the Congress has increased its vote share by 9% (39% to 48%) among SCs, its vote share among STs has decreased by 6% (41 to 35%), and among OBCs a decrease by 3%. (36 to 33%).
But its vote share could sustain its 2018 figure, majorly because the Muslim vote share increased by an astounding 28% (62% in 2018 to 90% in 2023). The emergence of an independent Adivasi party has cut into the ST vote share of both BJP and Congress. But the BJP almost retained its vote share among the SCs at 33% and increased its vote share among the OBC by 5%, when compared to the Congress’s loss of 3% vote share of OBC votes.
Thus, the phenomenal increase of Muslim votes for the Congress by 12%-31% in the three states could compensate for its loss of votes among its traditional Hindu vote base.
Further, the survey also suggests that among the Hindus, especially SC, ST, and OBCs, the Congress’s vote share has either stagnated or sharply decreased. On the contrary, the BJP has increased its Hindu vote share by 16 to 34% by encroaching upon the Congress social base of the SCs, STS, and OBCs. It is also reflected in the depleting vote share of the smaller parties in the fray, much to the benefit of the BJP.
Being a BJP’s political replica won’t help Congress
Such a polarisation is ominous for the 2024 elections. Even among the rural-urban, male-female, and other class categories, the BJP has made significant inroads, with its twin agenda of communal polarisation and last-minute personalised welfare dole-outs.
In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, it is already obvious that BJP-RSS is pitching on issues like national security, Ram Mandir, pride of Hindu Rashtra, and such mythical and emotive agendas to which the INDIA bloc’s counters are either collusive or complementary instead of confronting with alternate vision and agenda.
The electoral data of the recent assembly elections has many political and ideological lessons. It would be self-deception to take comfort in the vulnerable vote share of the Congress and dream of a miracle in 2024.
There are high chances that in a Lok Sabha election fought on hyper-religious nationalism, the very same Congress votes may shift to the BJP. The battle of 2024, therefore, is not a mathematical calculation for the opposition, and surely cannot be won by diluting the secular agenda or becoming BJP’s political replica.
While BJP-RSS is fighting an ideological and political battle against the Indian Republic, of which electoral victories are one among the many strategies, the INDIA bloc, including the Congress and its supporters, cannot dream of saving the idea of India by staging an unprincipled electoral battle with the diluted versions of the same agenda.
Serious politics demand imagination and preparation beyond 2024 and the electoral arena with an agenda and vision for a battle for substantive equality, social-economic justice and fraternity, and not a diluted version of Hindutva.
Shivasundar is an activist and a freelance journalist based in Bangalore.
