Bihar, which was expected to play a pivotal role in countering Narendra Modi’s brand of Hindutva, has lagged behind its neighbouring states–Uttar Pradesh in the west and West Bengal in the east–in this endeavour. Instead, it has “rescued” Nitish Kumar from what looked like his imminent downfall due to his repeated flip-flops.
The expectation from the state to smother the venom of vendetta and the divisiveness of communal politics arose when Kumar, the embattled Bihar chief minister, had dumped the Bharatiya Janata Party in August 2022 and joined the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). Initially, it was Kumar who anchored what has now emerged as a resurgent Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) from the just concluded general elections.
However, Nitish jumped back to the BJP in January this year, rocking the boat he had himself built. He chose to leave INDIA at a time when the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and other regional parties were struggling to present a united front to “save” the Constitution, democracy and secularism from the onslaught of authoritarianism that Modi’s 10 years of spell symbolised.
Now, the poll result–particularly in Bihar–has breathed a fresh lease of life into Nitish’s political career. At the same time, it has given a clear message to Modi to shun his divisive streaks and learn the art of inclusive politics which he has been inimical to, all through his political career. In Bihar, his BJP has come down to 12 seats in 2024 from 17 in 2019 elections.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Resurgence of CPI (ML) Liberation
At the same time, it has infused new hopes and energy in young Tejashwi Yadav–the spearhead of anti-Hindutva campaign in the state–to carry forward his campaign for social justice and secularism with more vigour and diligence. The results, by giving nine seats to INDIA–four to RJD, three to the Congress and two to the CPI (ML) Liberation–have created a salubrious climate for the progressive and democratic forces to intensify their efforts at the grassroots level.
Moreover, by giving a victory to Pappu Yadav–infamous for his strong-arm tactics but famous for his Robin-hood image rooted to his love for the minorities and inclusivity–the result has also suggested the RJD to be more accommodative while fighting the larger battle for social justice and secularism. By trumping the NDA nominee in Purnia, Pappu has asserted his commitment to the “secularism and humanity,” bringing cheers to the INDIA bloc. His Sikh wife, Ranjeet Ranjan is a Congress MP in the Rajya Sabha.
By all accounts, the results have indicated that the Left in Bihar, primarily represented by the CPI (ML) Liberation headed by Dipankar Bhattacharya, deserves better space to carry forward the battle against totalitarian politics. The CPI (ML) Liberation nominees, Sudama Prasad and Rajaram Singh have wrested the Arra and Karakat seats of central Bihar from NDA.
Among the INDIA partners, the CPI (ML) Liberation has the highest strike rate. It had only three seats including Nalanda–the pocket borough of Nitish–in its share. The party had a phenomenal strike rate in 2020 assembly polls, too, as it won 12 of the 17 assembly seats spared for it.
The CPI (ML) Liberation rightly harbours the grudge for not getting the Siwan Lok Sabha seat in its share. The Janata Dal (United) nominee has, now, won this seat defeating Hena Sahab, widow of the former ‘don’ and deceased RJD leader Mohammad Shahabuddin. The RJD’s Awadh Bihari Choudhary has trailed third at this seat of north Bihar bordering Uttar Pradesh.
Gains for INDIA
Though in terms of winning the seats, the NDA has performed better by winning 30 of the 40 seats, the INDIA partners have made heavy inroads in the caste groups which had been supporting the BJP-JDU combine from 2004-2005 elections onwards.
The victory of the RJD’s Abhay Kushwaha in Aurangabad by defeating Sushil Singh of the BJP is a clear testimony of how the RJD has impregnated into the Koiri/Kushwaha caste which was considered a loyal support base of the NDA.
The Kushwaha leader Upendra Kushwaha, contesting on the NDA’s ticket has trailed third in Karakat. Moreover, the INDIA nominees have garnered the votes of Kushwahas almost all over the state reducing the victory margins of the NDA nominees in Vaishali, Munger, Nawada, Gaya, Maharajganj, Ujiarpur, East Champaran and several other seats across north and south Bihar.
The spirited campaign of Tejashwi Yadav, sticking to the issues of employment, livelihood, health, price-rise and bhaichara (communal amity) has surely worked wonders which might not be getting reflected in numbers in terms of the seats won or lost but it is obvious from the victory margins between the INDIA and NDA candidates.
Apart from attracting the young voters–aspiring for jobs–the RJD has got votes from almost all the sections while keeping its core support base Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination intact barring in the seats in which the NDA had fielded Yadav candidates.
The Sangh Parivar has used the Seemanchal region comprising Kishanganj, Araraia, Purnia and Katihar seats with the numerical preponderance of the Muslims as a laboratory of the politics of polarisation for a long time.
In fact, Amit Shah began his campaign in the state from Purnia and Kishanganj after Nitish Kumar switched over to the Mahagathbandhan in August 2022. Narendra Modi addressed an election rally at Araria on the day the polling was taking place in Purnia, Kishanganj and Katihar. His speech was tinged with the overt doze of communalism.
That the Seemanchal’s air is still not fully free from the virus of communalism has become apparent with the RJD Muslim nominee losing to his BJP’s Hindu counterpart by a margin of over 20,000 votes. The results suggest the last minute polarisation on Hindu-Muslim lines in Araria even as Pappu Yadav and the Congress veteran Tariq Anwar have wrested the Purnia and Katihar seats from the NDA and Congress’s Mohammad Javed has retained Kishanganj. The grand old party has taken its tally to three seats in the state with Manoj Ram wresting the Sasaram seat from the BJP.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author, media educator and independent researcher in folklore.
Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.
