Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari 
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to keep off campaigning in Baramati, the pocket borough of Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar, where his estranged nephew and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar is fighting the Maharashtra elections.
Strange but true. Given that the three parties of the Mahayuti — the BJP, Eknath Sindh-led Shiv Sena, and NCP (Ajit Pawar) — are fighting together, surely the BJP’s star campaigner should have done his bit for his allies. But no. Ajit Pawar, who leads the NCP, has himself indicated this.
But seen in the context of some of Ajit Pawar’s other statements, this absence of Modi acquires significance. Without directly referring to Adityanath and his controversial plank of ‘batenge to katenge’, Ajit, who is the senior most leader of the Mahayuti for having the longest tenure of deputy chief minister in the state, has made it clear that any campaigning affecting communal harmony is unwelcome.
“Maharashtra has a tradition of Shiva (Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj), Shahu, Phule (Mahatma Jotiba Phule), and Ambedkar. And has a tradition of communal amity. So no one should speak contrary to this,” Pawar insisted and was critical of divisive outsiders.
Ajit Pawar’s remarks come at a time when the prime minister has just launched the campaign in a state where the Mahayuti is locked in a fierce fight over the control of the 288-member House with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, which is fully charged after a good show in the Lok Sabha polls in the state.
Pawar Junior has taken other steps notwithstanding the BJP’s objections. The NCP, whose party is a key ally of the BJP in the state, has also fielded controversial former minister Nawab Malik from a Mumbai seat. Ajit Pawar has also nominated Sana, daughter of Malik, from an adjoining constituency.
What is becoming obvious is that Ajit Pawar is distancing himself from his ruling partners – the BJP and the Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena – in the middle of the crucial Maharashtra assembly polls. Pawar is desperate after his party’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections and he clearly does not want to lose the minority vote.
Thus the Mahayuti might present a united picture on the outside. But it looks deeply divided on how to face the polls, the campaign theme, and the possible outcome.
The other Mayayuti component, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena meanwhile has been training its guns on former CM Uddhav Thackeray and his Sena faction is virtually silent on both, the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
The fact of the matter is that the Assembly election is virtually a life-and-death issue for the rival Senas. Both have to prove who is the real inheritor of the legacy of Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray, who had claimed to be the original proponent of Hindutva, before the BJP latched on to it.
Interestingly, the ambitious Shinde has a good rapport with the prime minister and especially Union home minister Amit Shah, who is personally leading the Mahayuti battle. Shinde, with all his actions, has signalled that he would like to be the next chief minister, even though the Mahayuti and the BJP central leadership is not projecting anyone for the top job.
But it is equally true that Shinde, whose interests clash with Ajit Pawar in the Mahayuti, has sought to project that he is also close to Sharad Pawar. The CM has not only publicly shown his reverence for the Maratha strongman on several occasions but has been pro-active in meeting him to discuss state matters.
In fact, the closest ally of the BJP appears to be Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, despite the fact that it is not a part of the ruling alliance.
Uddhav Thackeray, Raj Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. Photo: Official X account.
The BJP is in pro-active mode in the Mahim assembly seat to back Amit, son of Raj, who is seeking to make a maiden entry into electoral politics. The Shinde Sena on the other hand has refused to withdraw its candidate and sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar from the constituency. Raj had given unconditional support to the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha polls and had not fielded any candidate, or sought any seats.
Also read: Who Has the Most to Lose in the Three Senas’ Race for the Marathi Vote?
The MNS chief, who in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections campaigned vigorously against the BJP-led NDA without much success, has so far proved to be the man at the wrong place in electoral times. This time, he has apparently calculated that the next CM of Maharashtra will be from the BJP.
Raj had contested the 2009 Lok Sabha elections with all its strength, which had helped the Congress to trounce the then BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in most of the seats in and around Mumbai, helping the UPA get a second term.
As compared to Raj, senior NCP leader Dilip Walse Patil is speaking in a different tone. Walse Patil, who shocked political circles by siding with Ajit Pawar despite being known to be close to Sharad Pawar, has insisted that there will be a change of equations after the polls when the performance of every political party will play an important role.
Sharad Pawar, on the other hand, has brushed aside suggestions that Ajit would join the Maha Vikas Aghadi after the polls to get a slice of the power pie.
The BJP, which wants to emerge as the single largest party, is aggressively attacking the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, but it’s allies are not following this line.
Home minister Amit Shah has suggested that the next chief minister could be from the BJP and it could be Devendra Fadnavis. This is bound to demoralise Eknath Shinde.
The fissures are clear. BJP allies are not toeing its line completely, which is not a good development for the Mahayuti. This unrest could develop a free-for-all situation after the results, despite the threat of the Enforcement Directorate, the Central Bureau of Investigation and the income tax department. Each party and coalition component will be on its own. All in all, it is going to be an unprecedented election.
Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari are New Delhi-based journalists.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.