Bhubaneswar: The crushing defeat of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in the just-concluded Nuapada assembly by-poll has not only jolted the state’s most successful regional party but also raised question marks over its future. Though party leaders are trying to put up a brave face saying that by-poll results usually go in favour of the ruling party there is no denying their disappointment at the outcome with BJD candidate and former minister, Snehangini Chhuria finishing a poor third.

While Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Jay Dholakia, son of former BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia whose death caused the vacancy in Nuapada, polled 1,23,869 votes his nearest rival, Congress’s Ghasiram Majhi got 40,121 and Chhuria could manage just 38,408. Her defeat is a rare case of a BJD candidate losing a contest by such a big margin and being placed third, even behind the Congress. In the 24 years that the BJD ruled the state its candidates almost always recorded emphatic victories in elections and if they lost the margin was never too big. Nuapada has been an exception and the embarrassment caused by the defeat is being made worse by the fact that it was BJD’s seat which treated the constituency as its stronghold.

Things have changed for the party since its shock defeat at the hands of the BJP in 2024 general elections. Soon after the BJD lost the 2024 assembly polls the BJP, emboldened by its ascension to power in the state for the first time on its own strength, began poaching leaders of the regional party with a particular eye on Rajya Sabha members. Notably, it needed to shore up its own strength in the parliament’s Upper House. 

The first to go was Mamata Mahanta, a backward caste leader who was elected to the Rajya Sabha from Odisha on a BJD ticket in March 2020. She resigned towards the end of July last year and was immediately inducted into the BJP which sent her to the Upper House on its own ticket. The suspicion about the BJP engineering defections in the BJD was confirmed by the vague reasons Mahanta cited for leaving the party that had nurtured her and sent her to parliament. Her resignation letter simply said that the BJD no longer required either her or her community’s services.

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A month later another resignation hit the Naveen Patnaik-led regional party with Sujeet Kumar quitting his Rajya Sabha seat. He, too, joined the BJP and was soon elected to the Upper House on its ticket.

The BJP staged a coup of sorts when BJD’s former Rajya Sabha member and strategist Amar Patnaik joined the saffron bandwagon while campaigning for Nuapada by-poll was in full swing. It was an unexpected jolt for the BJD which found it hard to digest and explain. The defection of the former accountant general of Odisha laid bare the deepening crisis within the BJD which is yet to recover from the shock of the 2024 defeat which threw it out of power.

Political analyst Sabita Mohanty describes BJD’s crisis as multi-pronged. “So many factors have plunged the party into the situation where it finds itself today. The advancing age of former chief minister and party head Naveen Patnaik and his failing health and apparent inability to manage BJD affairs on a day-to-day basis has resulted in the erosion of his authority. His brand value has also taken a knock after the defeat last year blew up the myth of his invincibility. The BJD being the largest opposition party of the state now, its crisis presents an opportunity for the ruling BJP which is trying to lure away its leaders,” said Mohanty.

Admitting that signs are ominous for the BJD, Mohanty said the regional party has made things even more difficult for itself by refusing to behave like the main opposition party. “In Odisha, the job of the main opposition party is being done by the Congress which has been taking up important public issues and fighting the government both inside and outside the state assembly. The BJD through its lackadaisical approach to issues is only yielding space to the Congress which can be suicidal for the party,” remarked Mohanty. 

State Congress spokesperson Amiya Pandav agrees. “This is also the message from Nuapada. The fact that Congress came second in the contest proves that people now treat us as the main opposition party of the state. They have faith in us as they think we are capable of taking on the BJP government. In contrast BJD is seen as BJP’s B team. They are seen as two sides of the same coin,” said Pandav, adding that the regional party led by Naveen Patnaik was neither popular nor relevant anymore. 

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BJP MLA Irasis Acharya asserts that his party’s growing popularity has directly impacted the BJD resulting in its decline. “See, the massive mandate in Nuapada, propelled by the growing popularity of chief minister Mohan Charan Majhi among women, whose vote percentage rose by 3 per cent this time, and farmers who are happy with the schemes of our government, is an indication that BJD is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Its time at the top is over and it must reconcile to this reality,” said Acharya, dismissing allegations of the BJP trying to engineer defections in the regional party. 

Former BJD MLA Latika Pradhan, however, continues to ooze confidence about her party staging an emphatic comeback. “The result of just one assembly seat is unlikely to impact us much. We will review the outcome and see where we made mistakes and take corrective steps. I am sure we can sort out minor problems and work with greater purpose to ensure that BJD retrieves its lost glory in the state,” said Pradhan. 

The former MLA does not attach much importance to developments such as Jay Dholakia’s sudden switch to the BJP and his becoming its candidate in Nuapada, or former BJD Rajya Sabha member Amar Patnaik joining the saffron party in the midst of the by-poll campaign.

“These things happen in politics. Perhaps BJP lacks good leaders, so it is borrowing leaders from us. But this won’t have any impact. We are determined to bounce back and prove that we are still the best in the state,” asserted Pradhan.

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