Anand K. Sahay 
The outcome of the recently held assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir is of historical proportions in both parts of the former state and, in the case of the Kashmir valley, a rare ideological magnificence, reflecting the focused will of the people in spite of every dangerous distraction that New Delhi could lay in their path and despite the absence, from the winning alliance, of a regional party (PDP) that is a part of the national-level INDIA bloc.
A verdict such as this can paint the sky blue if New Delhi is imaginative and constructively supports the people’s efforts and their popularly elected government, which is to be led by National Conference vice-president Omar Abdullah.
On the flip side, the sky can just as easily be painted in the frightful dark colours that have marred life in Kashmir, most notably since militancy and terrorism emerged on the scene in the late 1980s, and once again in pronounced fashion since August 2019, when the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government removed J&K’s special constitutional status, severely impacting civil liberties and human rights.
A psychological sense of having been forsaken and left bereft descended upon Kashmir when the Union government downgraded the former state to a Union Territory, in violation of constitutional practice so strong, that wishing not to tread on uncertain territory, the Supreme Court avoided adjudicating on it when duly urged to do so.
It’s therefore principally up to New Delhi to determine whether conditions can be brought about for a civilised and enduring peace to descend on Kashmir under the government expected to take office shortly. The choice is not any more just Pakistan’s, which harbours terrorist bases and is in the habit of despatching desperadoes to J&K to perpetrate violence and disturb the conditions.
On account of its impressive electoral showing in the Jammu region, the BJP, which runs New Delhi, could be tempted to disrupt governance on a communal basis in an effort to discredit the NC, its leadership, the Congress party (a key NC ally and the INDIA bloc.
Electorally, by casting their lot with the NC, the people of Kashmir have delivered a strong ideological message against terrorism – foreign and home-grown – and against communal elements in New Delhi as well as their political hangers-on in Kashmir.
This can be an intimation of healing. It challenges the assiduously disseminated canard that every Kashmiri is secretly a Pakistani, and a terrorist to boot, for no reason other than having the same religion as most Pakistanis.
Underlining the pervasive nature of the swing back to NC in Kashmir’s electoral politics, the NC-led alliance won in a steady pattern across the valley, leaving only a pitiable number of seats for other parties and independents (most of whom were NC rebels and are likely to return to the party fold). Such a result ensues from the common voter’s spectacularly clear-headed voting for brand NC, without really caring for candidates and rejecting most other choices.
The Congress, as the NC’s close associates, thus managed to pick up a few seats, although showing little flair of its own other than Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra in 2022-23, to uphold constitutional values, which had drawn a warm response in the valley. That’s about as far as the Congress’ contribution to the electoral effort goes, other than the fact that the national party consciously chose to stand with the NC.
If Mehbooba Mufti’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) were a part of the NC-led winning alliance, a fuller phalanx in the true spirit of the national-level INDIA bloc to challenge the BJP may have emerged. It could’ve helped to perhaps reduce BJP numbers in the Jammu division, where the saffron party has performed remarkably well.
Keeping out the PDP reflected disregard of the intra-INDIA coalition ‘dharma’ or duty, but the voter stayed on focus and went with the storied NC whose history has many strands, perhaps the most significant of which is to disregard Jinnah’s urgings to join a Muslim Pakistan and choosing instead to go with Mahatma Gandhi’s ‘secular’ India.
In Kashmir’s context, the present election result marks a pivotal moment. It has come after many trials and tribulations and hits and misses. Given the valley’s decades-long trauma, the foregrounding of the NC by voters re-tells a past tale, with shades of atonement stitched into it. At various times in Kashmir’s history, dubious diversions have beguiled the populace.
A defining aspect of the NC’s story is the path-breaking decision of its founder, Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah, to dissociate with the Muslim Conference and establish the National Conference in 1932, enabling Kashmiris of all faiths to join.
Thus, in October 1947, when the so-called tribal raiders from newly-created Pakistan descended on Kashmir to seize the valley, the people’s militia organised by the NC – which resisted the invaders before the Indian Army could arrive- – had among its sector commanders Syed Mir Qasim (a future chief minister) as well as Durga Prasad Dhar, an important figure of the Indira Gandhi-era, and Pran Nath Jalali, a well-known journalist who would later head the PTI’s Srinagar Bureau. Under the NC’s stewardship, the Kashmiri Pandit has never been discriminated against on grounds of faith. This deserves to be recalled.
The recent Assembly polls and the Lok Sabha election in May had one thing in common – the voter participation was impressive. Both exercises appeared free as well as fair to observers. There was an important important difference, though.
In the Lok Sabha election, NC leader Omar Abdullah was defeated by separatist leader Engineer Rashid who was jailed in Delhi under the stringent Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). Rashid was facilitated in fighting elections from prison by the ruling party’s allies. The NC fared below par.
The jailed man’s relatives in Kashmir played the victim card to the hilt in the campaign and, seizing widespread public alienation, trounced Abdullah and another well-known politician. Kashmir was suddenly agog with possibilities as assembly polls were round the corner.
The banned Jamaat-e-Islami, whose credo rests on the idea that Kashmir ought to be Ilaqa-e-Pakistan (a territory of Pakistan), was sufficiently emboldened by these developments to field some of its own cadres as independent candidates in the assembly polls. There were widespread rumours that the ruling BJP was pulling strings from behind in order to further its long-term plan of dismantling the NC, Kashmir’s heritage party along with the Congress and the PDP, on the grounds that they were “dynastic” and seeking to create a new breed of politicians in “New Kashmir”.
This was to be achieved by creating conditions for all kinds of candidates, including those of the banned and communal J-e-I, to enter the poll fray and divide the anti-NC vote. As Hindu and Muslim communal politics appeared to march in tandem, the big fear was: Is the BJP’s action creating the conditions for the return of pro-Pakistan extremist politics in the valley? This was the subject of public discussion for many weeks before the assembly polls. An incipient sense of panic was overtaking the Valley.
Ordinary voters have sturdily demonstrated, however, that they have a mind of their own and that they appear to have no interest in returning to the bad old days. Additionally, they voted in sufficient numbers and in a particular pattern to leave no room for doubt that they wanted a regional party to form a stable government, hoping, in the process, to negate the national BJP’s ambition to install a Hindu chief minister in a Muslim-majority Union Territory.
In Jammu –in contrast to the unfolding of events in the valley – this indeed appeared as a concrete possibility, should the BJP cross a certain threshold of support in the wider Jammu region.
The Prime Minister’s rallying call in the plains of Jammu, as the campaign closed, was to raise hopes of a Hindu chief minister. For Modi, a history-making event of unimaginable ideological value glimmered in prospect in the theatre of India’s politics – a prize that might equal, if not surpass, the making of a new Ram temple in Ayodhya, and far exceeding election successes in any other part of the country.
Jammu voters eventually chose to overlook the bubbling dissatisfaction with the BJP’s decision to dilute Article 370 of the Constitution to end J&K’s autonomous status (which brought to the local people exclusively the benefit of land rights, jobs and education) as the BJP astutely shaped communal sentiments, taking advantage of the challenger Congress’ rank inability to exploit anti-incumbency.
So, where does Jammu and Kashmir go from here? A national party in power at the Centre, widely seen as a communal entity, has beaten all comers in the Jammu region and may have knocked on the doors of the chief minister’s office if it had won some half a dozen more seats. In the valley, a regional party whose birth and history has defined the making of Jammu and Kashmir in the modern era, has stormed the citadel, defeating BJP’s carefully laid out plans, set to form government tomorrow.
Will the BJP permit a government led by the NC – which the saffron party has done everything to denigrate, degrade and demolish – to function smoothly? This will be a question in people’s minds in Srinagar, Jammu and Delhi. Will Modi’s BJP return statehood to J&K when it has failed to come to power?
The rules were amended by the Centre last July. to transfer control to the Lieutenant Governor a wide array of subjects which, in the federal system, belong to the state and its chief minister. These subjects include law and order and jurisdiction over the police. The emasculation of Article 370 has already taken out land and land use from the former state’s jurisdiction. Are these potential flashpoints for J&K politics that may derail any prospect of tranquillity? And will that expand scope for Pakistan’s meddling?
In his post-election comment, Dr. Karan Singh, who would have been the hereditary ruler of J&K if the feudal order had not passed and was indeed made Sadr-e-Riasat, has urged the restoration of statehood “without delay”. It is noteworthy that he has also urged that “domiciliary provisions” be introduced in J&K as in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
This effectively means that the right to land should be with the people of J&K with exceptions made for those who qualify to become its domiciles. This may be a useful line of enquiry after the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A. But it is important that the Centre permit the post-election authority to function without hindrance. That is the least that may be expected. Kashmir has a worldwide resonance.
Anand K. Sahay is a journalist and political commentator based in New Delhi.