Disappointed But Not Surprised, NDA Had the Advantage: Yogendra Yadav on Bihar Results

In terms of social and caste-based alliances, the NDA has a far larger pool of social groups to pull votes from, Yadav said.

The Wire Staff

In terms of social and caste-based alliances, the NDA has a far larger pool of social groups to pull votes from, Yadav said.

Yogendra Yadav.

New Delhi: Speaking to The Wire as the Bihar assembly election results are coming in, psephologist and National Convenor of the Bharat Jodo Abhiyaan Yogendra Yadav has said that while he is disappointed by the results as they look now – with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on its way to a clear majority, currently leading in more than 170 of the state's 223 seats – he is not surprised.

Explaining why, he made the following three points:

1. NDA is a large political alliance (in terms of parties), Mahagatbandhan (MGB) is a small one. With Chirag Paswan and the LJP back in the NDA, it made it an alliance hard to defeat.

2. In terms of social and caste-based alliances, the NDA has a far larger pool of social groups to pull votes from. The MGB was largely hoping to count on Muslim and Yadav voters, while the NDA had its core base as well as 20-22% of the EBC votes.

3. Women voters in Bihar, who sometimes vote differently from the family or caste-based alliances, are pulled towards the NDA. The proposed payment of Rs 10,000 to women under the Mukhyamanthiri Mahila Rozgar Yojana also played a big role to bolster this – since "Rs 10,000 is no small amount in Bihar".

When asked whether the fact that this is the first election after the SIR has played a role in the result, Yadav said that the Election Commission's role in this election cannot be seen as negligible. However, to assign all credit for this result to the EC would be a political mistake, he said – and the opposition should not resort to that. Instead, the opposition MGB must assess why it has been unable to extend its social base beyond the Yadav-Muslim combine.

Sounding a warning bell for what the continued attachment to the BJP and NDA might mean for the JD(U), Yadav said that while we are unlikely to see an overnight takeover of Nitish Kumar's party – especially given it's very good performance in these elections, currently leading in 78 seats – a slow undermining of the JD(U) is already underway. It is likely that even if the BJP is forced to make Nitish the chief minister once again, a strong BJP deputy chief minister will be installed and JD(U) leaders may slowly be engulfed into the BJP.

This article went live on November fourteenth, two thousand twenty five, at fifteen minutes past eleven in the morning.

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