The 2019 Maharashtra assembly election marked a significant shift in the state’s political dynamics, with consequences still felt today. Although the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the largest party, winning over 105 seats with a 36.5% vote share, it fell short of an outright majority.
Its reliance on its coalition partner, Shiv Sena, highlighted a vulnerability that soon unraveled. Shiv Sena, with 56 seats and 19.4% of the vote share, eventually broke ties with the BJP, forming an unlikely alliance with Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). This coalition not only shifted the balance of power but also showcased a growing discontent with BJP’s central leadership and the rise of regionalism in Maharashtra.
Over the past five years, the splits haven’t just been limited to political parties alone but even families; those within the NCP will tell how personal relationships were tested in the most brutal manner possible, revealing political opportunism within the strongest bonds.
The recent split in the NCP, particularly the rift within the Pawar family, and the breaking apart of key allies like Shiv Sena, reflect a broader trend of political opportunism where leaders prioritise personal gain over voter mandate. Such moves are often seen as betraying public trust, which can lead to disillusionment among the electorate.
The consequences of this fragmentation are likely to resonate in these elections, as voters demand accountability and stability in governance where key projects are developed and delivered.
Jharkhand: Local Issues
Jharkhand’s 2019 assembly election results painted a similar picture of diminishing BJP dominance marking a clear shift towards regional leadership. After governing the state for five years, the BJP’s performance fell short of expectations, with the party winning only 25 seats with a 30.9% vote share. This loss was significant compared to its earlier dominance and reflected growing discontent with the party’s handling of local issues.
In contrast, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), under the leadership of Hemant Soren, achieved a decisive victory, securing 30 seats with a 37% vote share. The JMM’s success was rooted in its ability to address the concerns of the state’s significant tribal population, particularly around land rights, natural resources, and local governance.
The party’s alliance with Congress, which won 16 seats, further strengthened its position, enabling them to form a stable government. This victory underscored the importance of regional politics in Jharkhand, where local issues often take precedence over national agendas or perhaps sometimes blatant propaganda.
The arrest of Hemant Soren, followed by Champai Soren’s change in allegiance after he joined the BJP, raises very serious questions about how the new political landscape of Jharkhand was shaped for the 2024 assembly elections. Soren’s arrest had shaken the ruling JMM government, leaving an air of uncertainty around its future for leadership.
The shift of Champai Soren to BJP strengthens the opposition and signals a growing BJP resurgence in the state. With the tribal vote likely to be split, especially after the BJP’s renewed focus on local issues, this election may be highly competitive. The Congress-JMM alliance, which won convincingly in 2019, will have needed to refine its strategy.
Maharashtra’s political realignment: General election analysis
The graph below shows a significant shift in Maharashtra’s political landscape between the 2019 and 2024 elections. Congress, now part of the INDIA alliance, has made notable gains in seat count by more than doubling its seat share to 9 reflecting a drastic improvement in its performance compared to 2019 where it ended up getting only four seats.
This resurgence could be attributed to the coalition’s strengthened voter outreach, targeted policies focusing on social welfare, and anti-incumbency sentiment.
In contrast, the BJP-led NDA alliance has seen a decline of three seats in its vote share, despite retaining a significant number of seats. The split within Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP, with factions aligning with BJP, initially helped consolidate power in the short run, but overall voter sentiment appears to have shifted.
Despite appeasing efforts like the toll waiver and other schemes without any regard to consequences the BJP alliance’s decreased vote share suggests some dissatisfaction or loss of trust among its core voter segments to challenge the BJP-led NDA in the assembly elections. But the BJP only needs about 10% more vote share to secure victory and extend its winning streak following the unexpected turnover in Haryana.
The People’s Mandate
In Jharkhand, a key factor has been understanding and engaging with critical focus groups, especially those that may be leaning away from the BJP.
In 2024, the BJP has seen a decline in seats compared to its 2019 performance, a reflection of growing voter dissatisfaction. This shift opened an opportunity for opposition parties like the JMM and Congress to consolidate support among these disillusioned voters.
One prominent focus group includes Jharkhand’s tribal communities, who have historically supported regional parties like the JMM. Their issues around land rights, mining laws, and autonomy have not been fully addressed by the BJP government, creating an opening for more localised and empathetic leadership. Many in these communities may perceive the BJP as out of touch with their needs, especially when faced with policies that promote industrialisation at the expense of tribal land protection.
Similarly, young voters facing unemployment and disillusionment with the BJP’s economic policies present another crucial group. Jharkhand’s unemployment rates remain high, and despite promises of economic revival, job creation has not matched expectations. These voters are likely to be swayed by parties that offer tangible solutions for local industries and job creation.
As the BJP grapples with a visible decline in voter support in Jharkhand, these elections present a crucial moment for the opposition, particularly the JMM and Congress. By focusing on the grievances of tribal communities, these parties had the potential to gain significant ground. However, the BJP’s well-established organisational strength and ability to rally its core voter base may yet offer a path to regain lost momentum.
Challenges on the Access Divide
Drawing upon the insights shared from the Access (In)Equality Index, this analysis focuses its critical reflection narrowly on the states of Maharashtra and Jharkhand, while analysing their AEI performance levels across the different pillars, and the nature of progress made in five key areas.
Maharashtra’s Socio-Economic Landscape
The political landscape in Maharashtra has been constantly evolving, shaped by shifting alliances, emerging leadership, and changing voter priorities. Political instability has ruined the states’ economic performance for years now.
Also, over the years, the state has witnessed structural political shifts that reflect a broader set of socio-economic challenges on identity based markers and changing aspirations of its youth. This evolving environment continues to influence policy decisions, electoral outcomes, and governance, making Maharashtra a key state to watch in the upcoming elections (later) in November.
Drawing from the Access (In)Equality Report 2024, Maharashtra emerged as a strong performer, ranking 8th overall with a composite score of 0.52, marking a significant leap from its 13th position in 2021.
When it comes to access to basic amenities, Maharashtra again secured 8th place, with 70.1% of households having piped water connections within their homes or yards, and 76.8% residing in pucca houses. However, the state’s performance in healthcare lagged behind, ranking 20th, with a child mortality rate of 28% and only 22.4% of households having at least one member covered by any health insurance or financing scheme. Figure 1 helps understand where does Maharashtra stand as compared to the other states.
Figure 1 : Health Index Score for States
Source : Access (In)Equality Report 2024
In areas of measuring access to education, while Maharashtra boasts a high net enrolment ratio of 63.1%, only 47.9% of schools are equipped with functional internet. On the socio-economic front, public assistance to the disabled population is notably low, with just 12% receiving aid. Nonetheless, the state performs well in financial inclusion, with 93.7% of individuals owning bank accounts.
In terms of legal recourse, Maharashtra demonstrates strong performance with 1,168 police stations and 87.6% of services provided through the state’s citizen portal. However, prison overcrowding remains a concern, with an occupancy rate of 148.8%. Figure 2 sheds light on the state of legal recourse across states of India.
Figure 2 : Legal Recourse Index Score for States
Source : Access (In)Equality Report 2024
Maharashtra’s overall progress highlights its strengths in basic amenities, education, and legal recourse, though significant challenges remain in healthcare and social support. Continued efforts are needed to address these disparities and ensure more inclusive development.
Jharkhand’s ‘Access Equality’ Landscape
Jharkhand’s inequality landscape remains a critical issue. Ranked 18th overall with a composite score of 0.37, the state has made significant strides, climbing from 28th in 2021, yet it continues to be categorised as an aspirant state.
In terms of access to basic amenities, Jharkhand is the worst performer, with only 15% of households having access to clean cooking fuel and just 9.2% benefiting from piped water supply. Figure 3 showcases how Jharkhand fares as compared to other states in terms of basic amenities.
Figure 3 : Basic Amenities Index Score for States
Source : Access (In)Equality Report 2024
The healthcare scenario is equally concerning, ranking 24th, with only 38.6% of mothers receiving four antenatal care visits and 75.8% of births occurring in institutions, well below the national average.
However, Jharkhand shines in education, with an annual dropout rate of 9.3%, and it shows promise in the socio-economic sphere, where 90.4% of individuals own bank accounts and the worker population ratio stands at 60.9%.
Despite these improvements, the state struggles with legal recourse, ranking 24th. There are 443 inmates per police officer, and prison overcrowding remains a challenge with an occupancy rate of 121.5%. Although progress has been made, substantial work is needed to close the gap in essential services.
An analysis of the two states’ performance across key sectors highlights both areas of progress and ongoing challenges. Maharashtra has shown significant improvement overall, particularly in education, financial inclusion, and legal recourse, but struggles with healthcare accessibility and social support.
Jharkhand, despite making notable advancements from previous rankings, continues to lag in basic amenities and healthcare, while excelling in education and workforce participation. Both states must focus on addressing these disparities through targeted policy reforms to foster inclusive growth.
Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, and Director, Centre for New Economics Studies. He is a Visiting Professor at London School of Economics and an Academic Visiting Fellow to AMES, University of Oxford.
Ankur Singh is a Research Assistant with Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES) and a team member of its InfoSphere initiative.
