New Delhi: The selection of BJP candidates for the ensuing assembly elections signals two significant trends – both leading to further centralisation of power in the top two.
The first trend is the diminishing role of the party’s central election committee where, in an earlier era, senior leaders discussed the pros and cons of each candidate. Now Amit Shah visits each state, discusses the situation and draws up a list which the election committee, if at all it meets, approves. It is not at all like the meetings of the party’s national executive, once known for lively debates by Jaswant Singh, Murli Manohar Joshi and others.
The second signal is more sweeping and aimed at wiping out the established hierarchies in states. In one stroke, Shah has negated powerful state leaders like Vasundhara Raje Scindia in Rajasthan and four-time chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh. Hereafter, nominees handpicked by Modi-Shah will head all state governments – in true high command style. The idea is to wipe out the remaining pockets of small fiefdoms.
The appointment culture is an old Congress tradition. But Congress first sent central observers to the states, tried for a consensus candidate or in the alternative took the views of individual MLAs. Amit Shah has done away with even such niceties.
Regional leaders of all parties cultivate cadre who are personally loyal to them; in turn, these leaders provide them with tickets and funds. Such fiefdoms strengthened the party. Now Modi wants to demolish these vestiges of resistance.
This was how Vijay Rupani was removed and a relatively unknown Bhupendra Patel imposed on Gujarat in 2021. Many veterans protested and threatened to keep off the swearing ceremony but meekly surrendered later. Among them were Nitin Patel, Mansukh Mandaviya, Gordhan Zafadia and Praful Patel. The Gujarat model is now being replicated in all BJP strongholds. Hereafter, as in Gujarat, it will be Modi who commands the cadre’s loyalty; there will be no middle persons like Vasundhara Raje Scindia or Shivraj Chouhan.
(L-R) Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje Scindia and Raman Singh. Photos: Official Twitter accounts
This is how the duo, like all good elected dictators, have extended their powers to junk and fix chief ministers at will. The whole concept of ‘double engine’ is passé – except in the case of Uttar Pradesh, under Yogi Adityanath.
There have been murmurs of protests in Madhya Pradesh by those who were denied tickets. “What kind of a joke is this?” asked Narayan Tripathi, who is one of the victims.
As of now, such protests are not likely to lead to any organised rebellion. CM aspirants are in a compromising mood. While Vasundhara Raje will try her luck if her party wins in Rajasthan, Shivraj Chouhan has tried to play smart. Addressing the crowds, he asked: “Do you want me to continue as CM?” The crowd responded, “Yes.”
This has not gone well with the Delhi bosses who view this as a clever move by Chouhan to preempt the high command’s rights.
The next four months will unfold a kind of cult buildup that India has never witnessed – both in scale and content. Such an elaborate super system can be the envy of even the hardened dictators. Look at these:
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The BJP’s social media network, which is 1,50,000 strong, is being expanded so that it will have an impact on 140-160 Lok Sabha seats and hopes that 30% of voter penetration will come from social media. For this, 300 high-level volunteers in each state will train workers of the party’s different morchas.
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Piyush Goyal and Anurag Thakur are the main organisers of the ‘influential bloggers’. The former had a meeting with some 50 prominent YouTube and Instagram warriors from whom he sought cooperation. After the meeting, they were separately offered ‘help’ for ‘expenses.’ Cumulatively, these YouTube and Instagram influences have 284.3 million subscribers and 49.17 million followers.
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Over 200 bloggers across the country were invited to the BJP headquarters to seek their ‘cooperation’ for the party. As part of the deal, a separate panel of spokespersons could be formed comprising of bloggers.
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The party will also identify 100 singers, dancers, comedians, bhajan singers, intellectuals and food bloggers among others in each district and senior BJP leaders will draft them for the campaign. In Rajasthan, it is already on going.
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For the 2019 elections, a biopic eulogising Modi was released and a new ‘Namo TV’ channel was created. This time it will be on a much bigger scale.
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With TV media reaching a saturation point, there will be more pressure on print to go on the offensive against the opposition.
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The BJP had appointed booth-level panna pramukhs for the 2019 elections to manage the voters in their respective areas. To replicate the Gujarat model, Modi presented ID cards to 10 lakh of the 38 lakh panna pramukhs in June this year at a Bhopal event. It is being replicated all over the country.
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Very expensive and electronically aided display ads are being planned for 2024 polls but details have not been revealed.
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Call centres are being set up in each parliamentary constituency to coax the beneficiaries of Modi’s welfare schemes.
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Hate-driven vote bank, the BJP’s most assured constituency, is being left to Hindutva hardliners. The VHP has already held its fortnight-long ‘Shaurya Jagran yatra’ between September 30 and October 15 to ‘re-energise’ the workers.
The use of government machinery is an important element in Modi’s toolkit for elections. Airport terminals, health centres and road projects are inaugurated or foundation stones are laid during his frequent forays to election-bound states.
Projects worth Rs 19,260 crore for Madhya Pradesh and Rs 7,000 for Rajasthan were inaugurated by Modi. Similarly, projects worth Rs 7,500 crore in Chhatisgarh and Rs 13,500 crore for Telangana were already inaugurated during Modi’s visits. These are called Modi projects.
Go to any of the hundreds of Jan Aushadhi outlets. You will find a huge hoarding prominently displayed with a Modi portrait. This is a condition for giving a licence. And on it, the acronym ‘BJP” — for Bharatiya Janoushadhi Pariyojana — is highlighted in big letters. ‘Sankalp Saptah’ was another Modi persona buildup with public money which he announced at Bharat Mandapam this month. It is being linked with 500 ‘aspirational blocks’ across 329 districts.
Now the defence ministry has also been roped in to create ‘selfie points’ in public areas extolling the government’s ‘achievements’ and with a mandatory photograph of Modi as a part of the display.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses an election campaign rally. Photo: PTI/File
By far, the most expensive pre-election Modi buildup is the high-tech Grameen Samvad Yatra.
The yatra comprises 1,500 raths equipped with GPS and drones – yes drones – and will cover over 2.5 lakh panchayats across the country. Through audio-visual displays, each rath will constantly blare Modi’s speeches and songs in praise of him. This is done in the name of ‘educating’ the people on welfare programmes.
The specially designed raths with flood lights, sparkling colour and large official entourage will be an attraction for rural crowds. It will go on for two months just before the Lok Sabha elections. To pull the crowds, cultural programmes will be organised a day before the arrival of the rath. It will cover three panchayats every day.
In July last, 38 regional parties attended the NDA meeting. Most of those outfits do not have enough strength to win seats on their own. They, however, can add votes to the BJP’s kitty in their strongholds. To that extent, it helps the BJP. But Nitish Kumar’s caste survey has triggered tremors among these single-caste, non-OBC parties.
Most of the allies have already expressed support for the caste survey. This adds to the BJP’s worries. They include the Suhaldev Bharatiya Samaj party, NISHAD party, Apna Dal, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), PMK in Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand’s AJSU-P. In the next few weeks, we will know the full impact of Nitish’s bombshell.
The alliance with Karnataka’s JD(S), which has been in a frantic search for partners, has been a significant gain for the BJP. However, the crucial issue of seat adjustment remains a problem. The understanding with the BJP has already triggered rumbling among ticket aspirants. Several senior leaders, especially from minority communities, have quit in protest. This week, the JD(S) Karnataka chief, CM Ibrahim said that the party will not ally with the BJP.
But the biggest blow to the BJP came from its long-time ally AIADMK, which has ‘finally’ decided to snap ties. The BJP was expecting as many as six seats from Tamil Nadu in addition to the AIADMK’s own tally. Among the reasons cited for the breakup was minority votes. The BJP is trying hard for a patch-up, but so far the latter has brushed these efforts aside.
The BJP had made considerable headway in its outreach programme, especially with Pasmandas. Last year, there were concerted efforts to woo Muslims and Christians in states like Kerala. On instruction from the centre, BJP workers, rather reluctantly, visited Muslim families during Eid. However, no one talks about the outreach after the worst attacks on Christian churches in Manipur and the confrontational ambience created Modi’s daily harangue.
P. Raman is a veteran journalist.
