New Delhi: The slump in the voter’s turnout continued even in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections, in which 88 constituencies across 13 states went for polling. The average turnout was nearly 64.7% as against 69.4% in 2019. Analysts say that the lower turnout marked a clear lack of enthusiasm among people.
A pan-Indian urban-rural divide was seen in much sharper ways than before. The rural booths saw a much better turnout than their urban counterparts.
Although the soaring temperatures may have played a role in the relatively poor turnout, comparisons with the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in similar weather conditions are bound to happen. The drop from the 2019 elections has been drastic, averaging around five percentage points, with states like Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh witnessing a drop of over seven percentage points.
Let us compare how the constituencies that went to the polls in the second phase fared in terms of voter turnouts in 2024 (tentative figures) and 2019, according to the Election Commission’s figures.
How should one understand the drop? Those critical of the Modi government like the political analyst Yogendra Yadav view the trend as visible apathy towards the Centre, and claim that the drop in voter turnout is higher in seats held by the BJP-led NDA than those held by non-NDA parties. But supporters of the BJP believe that the grueling heat could be the reason, and think that those opposing the Modi government may not have turned up out of exasperation that the prime minister’s re-election is predetermined.
Yet, field reporters and those traveling in election-bound seats sense a great degree of resentment among voters towards the Modi government’s reticence in addressing their bread-and-butter concerns. They have also spoken about a sense of fatigue, if not anger, against the 10-year-old Modi regime. The resentment, they have said, is directed more towards the BJP representatives – MPs, MLAs, local leaders – for being inaccessible, poor performers, and arrogant than Modi himself whose perception has remained intact because of a favourable coverage in the big media 24*7.
As a result, none of the campaign talk that the BJP has raised like the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya or Viksit Bharat and so on has really provoked or enthused the voters in the run-up to the polls. Instead, voters have been critical of the Modi government for rising inflation and unemployment. Unemployment, mismanagement of competitive exams for jobs, and price rise continue to be the most burning issues.
Also read: Survey Finds Deep Economic Discontent, Job Pessimism; 52% Say Modi’s Policies Favour ‘Big Business’
The opposition parties, on the other hand, lag behind in reaching out to the voters, even though they have constantly spoken about these material concerns of voters. But the way the INDIA bloc was rocked by the exits of Nitish Kumar and Jayant Chaudhary and arrests of Arvind Kejriwal and Hemant Soren has forced the opposition parties to defend themselves rather than to address people’s grievances. Their campaign, too, has swayed away from raising such issues to calls for “saving democracy and the Constitution”. This has prevented the opposition from creating a political narrative that not only echoes the failures of the Modi government but offers a credible, alternative political model.
Sensing the lack of coordination among the opposition ranks, the BJP’s real narrative on the ground has focused only on a simple message that although there are many promises that the Modi government could not fulfill in the last 10 years, there is no other alternative (TINA) at the moment. In other words, you may not be fully happy but Modi is still the best bet.
The cynicism in the BJP’s campaign, and the opposition’s failure to gather itself quickly from a series of reverses, perhaps, is the biggest reason that voters have remained unexcited about the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, fearing more than ever before the possibility of a one-party regime in the future.
The Lok Sabha polls are being conducted like a business-as-usual, routine affair. The BJP leaders, led by the prime minister himself, have indulged in unprecedented hateful remarks against minorities with impunity, with no real intervention by the ECI. The opposition ranks, barring a few regional leaders, have struggled with mobilising its cadre and gathering resources, giving an impression that there is no credible challenger to the excesses committed by the Modi regime.
The lack of a level-playing field is there for everyone to see. It isn’t a secret anymore. Local concerns dominate in the polls to elect the 18th Lok Sabha, even as there is a perceptible exhaustion with repetitive campaigning. And that may be the real reason why voter turnout is dipping, both among the supporters of the Modi government and its critics.
