Bengaluru: In the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections, the news portal Eedina had accurately predicted a victory for the Congress, which it said would win 132 to 140 seats. For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the survey has predicted anywhere between 13 and 18 Lok Sabha seats out of the state’s 28 constituencies for the Congress, with a possible vote share of 46.41%.
In an exclusive interview with The Wire, Eedina project head Dr. H.V. Vasu underlined that the Congress party is likely to perform better in North Karnataka which goes for polls on May 7 and called the “Lingayat dominance” factor “a myth”. Further, he underlined that “85 to 89% people feel that price is an issue and relatively more people feel that the BJP is responsible for it”.
Edited excerpts from the interview are as follows.
How do you think the Prajwal Revanna sexual abuse cases will impact the next phase of polls in Karnataka?
The Prajwal Revanna issue will impact but not in a big way. I think by now people have already decided what [to do], whom do they [want to] vote for. I don’t think there will be a very big impact for two reasons. One, people have already decided. Second, Prajwal is a JD(S) candidate and South Karnataka is a JD(S) belt and the JD(S) contested in three parliamentary constituencies in which the election is already over.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
There will definitely be a small impact. There was the Neha [Hiremath, who was stabbed by a man in a case that was communalised] incident in Hubli. Now, when there is another incident which is bigger than the first one then people tend to neutralise the first incident. For example, when Amit Shah came to visit Neha’s family in Hubli by that time the Prajwal incident had already happened and he also could not make communal statements when he came because of the Prajwal incident.
So in that sense, in bringing up the morale of the cadre and enthusiasm amongst voters, such factors do affect. Otherwise in voters’ mindset, I do not think there will be a big change.
You have predicted 13 to 18 seats for the Congress party in your second survey. One phase is over now. Do you still stand by your prediction?
Well, yeah. In fact, the Congress may do even better than that.
Out of 14, how many do you think the Congress party will win in the previous phase?
Well, that is a difficult question because we have said in our discussions after the survey that the Congress has come down from 11 to nine in terms of winning constituencies i.e. surely winning constituencies. The BJP has come down from 10 to seven. And in 12 seats there is a close fight.
The problem here is that the undecided voter chunk is more amongst women. And that is the difficult part in order to assess even in the survey.
And women, of course, are voting in favour of Congress more than men. But is it 3% or is it 11% is the question — that is not yet known. Women have not disclosed their political leaning fully. If they vote in favour of guarantees more, then Congress will get more than 20 seats.
Also read: Second Eedina Survey Also Says Cong. Ahead of BJP-JD(S), May Spring Surprise in K’taka LS Poll
More than 20 seats?
More than 20 seats. And if it does not happen, then Congress will come down to 13 – nine to 13. That is the issue and the closer seats are in South Karnataka.
Do you mean to say that South Karnataka seats are more closely contested compared to North Karnataka?
North Karnataka is mostly favouring Congress except for three or four seats. So that is the reason why we are saying that we are not sure about those seats.
Can you tell us something about the methodology that you follow to do the survey?
This is called scientific random sampling. We decide on a sample size first, and then we take the voter list. And in each constituency based on how many people we have to speak to, we distribute that evenly across the constituency. We conduct face-to-face surveys. We don’t do telephonic surveys.
Enumerators go and meet the particular voter who is selected according to a random sampling method. Once we come back after, I mean, we don’t select say, 50% women and 13% Muslims, 18% Dalit, that we do not know. But when the survey is finished, if we have, say, 49% women, roughly, and different demographic communities are represented in the same proportion that they are present in the society, then that sample is correct. This is what is called sampling.
Secondly, we also get all the demographic details, not just gender and age. But also their [voters’] caste, community, sub-class sometimes, and their economic status, education status, all that. Then there will be questions regarding their political leaning and the issues on which they vote for. We have enormous data to look into their political leaning and all that. This is the method that we follow.
Also read: Interview | ‘Yediyurappa, Devegowda…BJP Has No Right to Talk Dynasty’: Karnataka Minister Laxmi Hebbalkar
Out of the 28 constituencies, you have predicted that the Congress will win nine seats and the BJP will win seven seats. Which are those seats?
We have not mentioned it outside, we will not mention it here also. And people also have a misconception that, for example, there are 224 assembly constituencies in Karnataka. People think that we conduct the survey in all the 224 assembly constituencies and decide who is winning in which constituency and then we add up all that and finally submit the report. No, that is not the method. Of course, we have done surveys in all the constituencies. But after that, we generally look at the vote share at the state level and then calculate the swing and apply that swing to the vote share in the previous election, and sometimes we also apply this swing region-wise. That is how it is done.
People in fact think that we conduct surveys for each parliamentary constituency or assembly constituency and then add up the number. No, that is not the method.
In fact, in a state like Karnataka where there are 224 assembly constituencies, some people conduct surveys in only 112 assembly constituencies and they project it to the whole state. And they calculate the swing. There are several methods to do it.
Of course, we have surveyed every constituency. That’s a different matter. But this misconception is there in people that we add up the numbers and finally come to a conclusion. That is not the way. This is one reason why we are not actually talking about the particular constituency. Secondly, generally, that is not mentioned by any (pollster) anyway.
What are the factors which you think will determine the results in the next phase of elections in Karnataka? Because in the first phase, we had mostly Southern Karnataka and then only Mangalore and Chikmangalur. So now in the next phase, what factors do you think will determine which parties will win most of the seats?
Besides Shivamogga and Davangere, all the other constituencies in the second phase of the election belong either to Mumbai Karnataka or Hyderabad Karnataka – that is how they are called because these regions were earlier with Bombay Province and Hyderabad Province. This is a relatively underdeveloped part of Karnataka, particularly Hyderabad Karnataka, there are more poor people and the proportion of oppressed communities is relatively more there.
Here the issue is the strength of the BJP versus the strength of the Congress party which is its core social base and also the guarantees that were implemented quite effectively. I think this is the basic fight that is going to happen here and there are caste dynamics also mostly they are in favour of the BJP.
Of course, when we say more guarantees and more people, 85 to 89% people feel that price is an issue and relatively more people feel that the BJP is responsible for it, similarly corruption and unemployment are also issues. But any single factor which affects people’s lives won’t decide an election. So there are multiple factors which boil down to one particular narrative or feeling or learning, for example, people think that BJP is responsible for issues like unemployment, price rise and things like that will be there in the background and they boil down to an emotion in the minds of the people, in the minds of the electorate, then that becomes a change in the political leaning.
Sometimes it so happens that people feel that everything was bad in the last 10 years. But when you ask who is the most popular leader that you like, they say Mr Narendra Modi, it can be like that also.
But the relatively poorer section of people, relatively more oppressed communities are there in North Karnataka and that demography favours Congress more than the BJP.
In terms of caste equation, aren’t most of the seats in North Karnataka more favourable to the BJP due to the Lingayat dominance? Also, since the BJP-JD(S) are in a coalition now doesn’t that mean that the chunk of votes that the JD(S) used to get in certain pockets in North Karnataka will be transferred to the BJP?
I must say that Lingayat dominance is a myth. It is not actually true that Lingayats are more in number in Karnataka. Lingayats are the dominant community and that is true. There is a claim that Lingayats are 17% in Karnataka.
It does not have a proper basis, the caste census is still not out and I doubt that Lingayats are in that big a number. Secondly, Lingayats are distributed in about 20 plus districts in Karnataka, not just North Karnataka.
Also read: Why the Choice Between ‘Hindutva’ and ‘Lingayat’ Led to BJP’s Defeat in Karnataka
Since they are dispersed like this, they are not like the deciding community in any constituency unlike the Vokkaligas who are concentrated in about seven or eight districts. For example, in Mandya parliamentary constituency Vokkaligas are about 46%.
There is no such constituency in entire Karnataka where Lingayats are more than 30% in number. That’s not a correct estimation. But such a perception is there that Lingayatas are dominant in most of the places and that is not true.
There is another reason why people think like that because BJP wins more seats in North Karnataka than South Karnataka. But in the 2023 (assembly) elections, the Congress party won more seats in North Karnataka even our survey before 2023 election had predicted that the Congress would sweep North Karnataka though they didn’t sweep like we had estimated but it got more seats in Northern Karnataka.
The second question that you asked about the JD(S) votes going to add up to BJP. For example in Bidar Lok Sabha constituency, in one particular seat the JD(S) was winning say the Bidar assembly segment and even in Humnabad the JD(S) got considerable number of votes but still the combined votes of both BJP and JD(S) in the eight assembly segments of Bidar Lok Sabha constituency in 2023 is almost 10% less than that of the Congress. Similarly, that’s the case in Kalaburagi.
You see a better picture in Raichur. They [JD(S)] are in Devadurga, Manvi and some other places but the principal opponent for BJP was JD(S) but they don’t add up in Parliament that’s because JD(S) votes there are in the anti-BJP space. But in places like Kolar and Chikkaballapur or even in Mysore for that matter there are assembly segments in which it is Congress vs JD(S) or Congress vs BJP, it is not JD(S) vs BJP, so both JD(S) and BJP are in anti-Congress space in Southern Karnataka barring Tumkur. Tumkur is a different picture. But in Northern Karnataka wherever JD(S) presence is there, the principal opponent is BJP.
For example in Devadurga [in Raichur], Karemma [from JD(S)] and Shivana Gouda Nayak [of BJP] fought against each other – it was BJP versus JD(S) – and now there’s a BJP candidate in Raichur, I don’t think Karemma’s voters will vote for the BJP since her principal opponent is Nayak.
So this natural transfer of votes that was being discussed won’t really happen?
Not in North Karnataka, but in South Karnataka, barring Tumkur, they will sink. Even our survey showed that BJP and JD(S) voters are happy with the alliance. But the same thing does not happen in North Karnataka. So, these reasons, combined with the guarantee of implementation, will help Congress win more seats in North Karnataka.
