Mumbai: At every step, Eknath Shinde continued to be ahead. From deciding to launch his sudden rebellion against the outgoing Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government on June 21, to finally announcing that he would be the new chief minister of Maharashtra, Shinde always made the first move. The former chief minister and Shiv Sena party chief, Uddhav Thackeray, was merely responding to his moves.
Shinde first moved to Surat, along with 16 MLAs, all considered to be his close confidantes. Arrangements were made for their stay and the local Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders were seen making frequent visits. This, even when the BJP leaders both in Maharashtra and in Delhi claimed that they had no role in Shinde’s dissidence. When the situation began to tense up, they were all flown to Assam, another BJP-led state.
In Guwahati, the state chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma visited Shinde at the five-star hotel, Radisson Blu. By then, the number of rebelling MLAs had grown to over 40. The number further rose, and Shinde claimed that his camp had the support of 55 MLAs, which included Sena, other smaller parties and a few independent MLAs.
While congratulating Shinde on the new position, Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar on June 30 commented on the BJP’s claims that it had nothing to do with the Maharashtra political crisis. In a press conference, he told reporters, “I congratulate Eknath Shinde on his new responsibility. He showed the power of taking such a large number of MLAs to Guwahati. He inspired people to quit Shiv Sena. I don’t know if it happened earlier. But it didn’t happen without preparation. Otherwise, Surat, Guwahati can’t happen so quickly.”
I congratulate Eknath Shinde on his new responsibility. He showed the power of taking such a large number of MLAs to Guwahati. He inspired people to quit Shiv Sena. I don’t know if it happened earlier. But it didn’t happen without preparation: NCP chief Sharad Pawar#Maharashtra pic.twitter.com/SZ1zuWOAEq
Advertisement— ANI (@ANI) June 30, 2022
पण जे ऐकायला मिळते आहे त्यानुसार इथून सूरतला जाणे, तिथून गुवाहटीला व्यवस्था होणे, त्यानंतर पुन्हा गोव्याला येणे, या सर्व गोष्टी काही एकाएकी घडत नाहीत.
— Sharad Pawar (@PawarSpeaks) June 30, 2022
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Around the same time, the Supreme Court had on June 29 refused to intervene against the governor’s decision to call for a floor test and Thackeray subsequently quit as the state chief minister. Meanwhile, Shinde and his camp had already moved to Goa, another BJP-run state. Thackeray’s resignation was meted with celebrations in the BJP and among Shinde’s faction, too.
On June 30, Shinde finally returned to Mumbai after 10 days and addressed the press with former state chief minister Devendra Fadnavis on his side. It was announced that Shinde will be the state chief minister and Fadnavis, along with the BJP’s 105 MLAs, will extend support from outside.
Within hours, the senior party leaders in Delhi announced that Fadnavis has shown “large heartedness” and now is a part of the new government. While Shinde is the new chief minister, Fadnavis is the state deputy chief minister. This is perhaps the first time that a chief minister has stepped down to become a deputy chief minister.
The suspense that was built over the past week and a half in the state politics now becomes clearer. This move was to sideline Thackeray in his own party. Thackeray, who emerged as a capable administrator during the COVID-19 pandemic, saw his ministers leave his side one by one. In the end, the Sena chief was left with mere 16 MLAs by his side.
What about the anti-defection law?
Shinde, an old Sena leader, who rose in ranks over the past three decades, was considered to be Thackeray’s man on the ground. From party roadshows to public events, Shinde was the man that Thackeray relied on. Shinde, who first became a corporator in 1997, holds a strong control over Thane, an adjacent district to Mumbai and also a district with Sena’s prominent presence.
Shinde has maintained that he is the “real Sena” and he never abandoned the party. He claimed to have only objected to Thackeray’s decision to join hands with the Congress and NCP. And with most MLAs by his side, Shinde claimed he is “the” party leader.
In order to claim his control over the party name and symbol, Shinde and other rebels will have to move before the Election Commission. Thackeray, his close confidantes claim, will counter “tooth and nail”. “These MLAs were elected following the party head Uddhav Thackeray’s decision to hand over the party seat. Their candidature was decided by Thackeray ji, he continues to be the one that runs the real Shiv Sena party,” said a senior party leader.
Thackeray’s camp has also claimed that Shinde’s “whip” (which is considered a binding direction on the party) is not valid. Bharat Gogawale, who was appointed as a “chief whip” by the Shinde camp is not an “official appointee,” Raut had maintained before media earlier.
Propping Shinde as the state head just months before the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC) elections would have a serious bearing on brand ‘Thackeray’ in the city. With Thackeray appearing fragile in his party, the real threat would be to reign control over the Sena corporators in the city.
Shinde, a leader belonging to a powerful Maratha-dominated community, which is a majority in the state, is also seen as the right candidate to face the Maratha leadership of the Congress and NCP.
If Shinde were to part ways or float his own party, or is compelled to stay – depending on the Election Commission’s decision – it is likely that the Sena corporators too might be swayed towards him. This is something that Thackeray can’t afford at any cost if he wants to ensure his political relevance.
With over two-thirds of the total Sena MLAs by his side, Shinde and his faction might manage to dodge the anti-defection proceedings, against which the Shinde camp has obtained protection from the Supreme Court until July 12. Now with the change in government, the application before the Supreme Court could well be infructuous, says V. Venkatesan, editor of The Leaflet and author of the book Constitutional Conundrums: Challenges to India’s Democratic Process. If Thackeray and his camp wish, they will have to file a fresh petition now.
It is no more about the pending anti-defection proceedings. Now that Shinde has continued to maintain that he is the “real” Sena, it would have to be proved before the assembly speaker as to who is the real Sena here, Venkatesan adds. “With Shinde claiming “I am the real Shiv Sena” and that two-thirds numbers are with me; this makes Thackeray group a rebelling camp. The speaker will have to now deal with two separate defection applications,” Venkatesan further explains.
Legally, everything might not be lost for Thackeray yet. Venkatesan feels that Thackeray remains the real Sena, strictly by law. “The law says the party that gave party tickets during the last elections is the original party. And in this case, it is Thackeray. In the Election Commission’s record too, it is Thackeray. The burden, hence, lies on Shinde to prove his claim in order to not suffer disqualification,” Venkatesan says. If Shinde shows that he is merging with another group, he can skirt disqualification and if he doesn’t, he suffers disqualification.
Under the anti-defection law, if interpreted properly, Shinde still has to fight legally against his disqualification. But for now, Thackeray’s stand is unclear. Whether he chooses to go with Shinde or chooses to take a legal path, this will be clearer only in the days to come.
