Will BJP's Formidable Victory in Jharkhand Wake the Opposition up From Its Slumber?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and routed the opposition in several states across the country – Jharkhand being one of them. Of the 14 seats in the state, BJP bagged 11 and its ally All Jharkhand Student Union (AJSU) party got one. Among the parties in the opposition, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress had to settle for one each.

In 2014 too, BJP secured the maximum number of seats in the state – 12. However, this year’s result has left many surprised. Jharkhand’s mahagathbandhan of all the non-Left parties of the state – Congress, JMM, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) – was considered one of the most formidable in the country. Congress fielded its candidates in half the seats, JMM in four, JVM in two and RJD in one.

It was expected that the coalition would be able to consolidate the votes of various segments of the society. Around 27% of the state’s population comprises Scheduled Tribes (ST), 12% Scheduled Castes and 35-40% backward castes. In terms of religion, there are 67.83% Hindus, 14.5% Muslims, 4.3% Christians and 12.84% “others” (primarily Adivasis who follow their own religion). Notably, in the absence of ‘Adivasi religion’ as an option in the 2011 Census, several Adivasis have marked Hindus.

In the last few years, the BJP-led state has faced severe criticism from various quarters for starvation-related deaths and mob lynchings. Since 2015, 11 persons have been lynched and at least 19 have died of starvation. The government also gained significant unpopularity among the Adivasis when it repeatedly tried to amend the land laws to ease acquisition. It had to withdraw the amendments after widespread protests.

Also read: Jharkhand’s Starvation Deaths Raise Questions About India’s Welfare Schemes

Despite these issues and the mahagathbandhan in place, the BJP managed to emerge as the undisputed winner. A closer look at the vote share, field reports and state’s political discourse indicate that the outcome was in the making for a long time.

BJP’s vote share grew from 33% in 2004 (the first general elections held after the formation of the state in 2000) to 51% in 2019 (see Table 1). On the other hand, the combined vote share of the mahagathbandhan parties has continued to shrink in the same period. The electoral footprint of the BJP is steadily increasing as evident from the assembly polls of 2014 and panchayat polls of 2015.

Table 1: Vote share of political parties (Source: Election Commission of India)

*JVM was yet to be formed in 2004. Its leader Babulal Marandi was with the BJP at the time.
#In 2004, one seat was won by the CPI and in 2009, independents won on two seats.

Even though the mahagathbandhan was able to consolidate most of the Muslim and Christian votes and a large proportion of the Adivasi votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha election – as confirmed by the Hindu CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey – it fell grossly short of BJP’s Hindutva consolidation.

Since the formation of the state, the BJP has been successful in drawing a significant proportion of the state’s backward castes and Dalits in the Hindutva fold. The absence of a visible political alternative for backwards has also helped the party. The last five years saw a greater focus of the BJP on both these fronts. JMM, the largest opposition party, continues to be viewed primarily as an Adivasi party that has little to offer to the backward castes. The CSDS survey found that 70% of voters of backward castes voted for the BJP-AJSU combine.

In the eight non-ST seats taken together, the BJP and AJSU got more than twice the number of votes polled for the opposition. Also, in these seats, the two parties’ combined vote share increased from 47% in 2014 to 60% in 2019 (see Table 2). To a certain extent, last-minute mobilisation by the prime minister on nationalism and air strikes against Pakistan also helped.

Table 2: Vote share of political parties (Source: Election Commission of India)

But in the six ST seats of the state, the collective vote-share of the opposition parties increased in the last five years from 33.89% to 43.45%. The protests by Adivasis – supported by the opposition parties – against the amendments to land laws were an important factor in the gain. The mahagathbandhan won two ST seats. In two others, it was a close contest. While in the remaining, it fell short.

Also read: Jharkhand: Assembly Elections Around the Corner, Parties Analyse Strategies

Despite the angst against the BJP among the Adivasis, the party managed to increase its vote share in the ST seats between 2014 and 2019. The BJP and RSS have steadily made inroads in the Adivasi heartland. In 2017, the state government formulated the anti-conversion law that was aimed at further deepening the wedge between Christian Adivasis and non-Christian ones.

Another reason for this win is the ability of the BJP to reap political dividends from its flagship schemes such as rural housing and LPG subsidy programmes. Regardless of the implementation lacunae, BJP was able to use them to mobilise beneficiaries and others in favour of the prime minister himself.

On the other hand, the opposition failed to mobilise people against the rampant violations of the socio-economic entitlements such as ration, pensions, NREGA and so on. These issues were prominently raised by opposition leaders in press conferences, but they were seldom echoed by their frontline cadre.

The BJP party workers easily outnumber those of the other parties, especially the Congress. They actively mobilised people in favour of their ideology and government. But the Congress functionaries were hardly seen in the villages. The BJP’s social media outreach and fairly pro-government media also played their part.

Right from countering the Hindutva narrative to getting its act together on the ground, the opposition parties have their work cut out for the Jharkhand assembly elections scheduled later this year. Will they take a leaf from their gains in Adivasi areas and rise to the occasion?

Siraj Dutta is based in Jharkhand and has been working on the MNREGA for the last six years.