New Delhi: Exit polls appear to predict a win for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance. Most polls predict that the NDA will win more than 350 seats.
The Lok Sabha elections, which began on April 19, ended earlier today. Exit polls are done after the ban lifts on such surveys and depend on voters’ accounts. They have been known to be wrong as well.
According to numbers put out by NDTV after a ‘poll of polls’ counting, the NDA is likely to win 365 seats, the INDIA alliance, 142 and others, 36.
| Poll | NDA | INDIA | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| India Today-Axis My India | 361-401 | 131-166 |
8-20
|
| C-Voter | 353-383 |
152-182
|
04-12
|
| Today’s Chanakya |
385-415
|
96-118 |
27-45 |
| India News-D-Dynamics survey | 371 | 125 | 47 |
| Republic Bharat-Matrize | 353-368 | 118-133 | 43-48 |
| Republic TV-P MARQ | 359 | 154 | 30 |
| Jan ki Baat | 362-392 | 141-161 | 10-20 |
| CNX | 371-401 | 109-139 | 28-38 |
In a press conference earlier today, the INDIA alliance had said that it will win over 295 seats and will be in a position to form the government.
Psephologist Yogendra Yadav had predicted a less-than-270 tally for the BJP, while analyst Prashant Kishor had – in a hostile interview – claimed BJP will get above 300 seats alone.
States
The India Today-Axis My India poll has the NDA at 23-25 seats in Karnataka, and the INDIA grouping winning 3-5 seats.
The same polls have the NDA in Bihar – which includes Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) – bagging 29-33 seats. The INDIA bloc has 7-10 sets.
In Kerala, according to the same polls, the NDA could have 2-3, the Left parties’ LDF with 0-1 and the Congress-led UDF, with 17-18. The NDA is predicted to get 27% of the vote share in the state.
The India Today-Axis My India poll predicts the NDA winning 2-4 seats in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK+ winning 0-2 and the INDIA bloc sweeping the state with 33-37 seats.
In Chhattisgarh, the same polls have NDA winning 10-11 and the INDIA alliance with 0-1.
In Jharkhand, the chief minister of which was arrested and remains in jail, the NDA is predicted to win 8-10 seats, and INDIA (of which former chief minister Hemant Soren’s party Jharkhand Janmukti Morcha is a part), with 4-6.
The two seats for Goa are predicted to be split between the NDA and INDIA bloc.
In Rajasthan, the NDA has 16-19, according to Axis My India, while INDIA has 5-7 and others, 1-2.
In Madhya Pradesh, NDA is predicted to sweep all 29 seats. The picture is similar in Gujarat and Delhi.
For Punjab, the Congress is predicted to win 7-9, NDA, 2-4, AAP 0-2 and others, 0-1. The Shiromani Akali Dal is predicted to get 2-3.
Of Haryana‘s 10 seats, the NDA will get 6-8, it is being predicted, and the rest, the INDIA bloc.
The same polls have Delhi – the chief minister of which is only out on bail – almost entirely going to the NDA.
In Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, the NDA is predicted to sweep all seats.
Assam is predicted to have 9-11 seats for the NDA and 2-4 for Congress.
West Bengal and Odisha, with strong regional parties, are also predicted to be NDA sweeps.
Exit polls this time especially adopt significance as they come after a long and arduous election.
But while these polls signal the end of the election process, they come with a caveat, as The Wire has explained. Not always have these predictions turned out to be accurate. The report notes how in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, most exit polls were inaccurate, except for the India Today poll.
In 2014, too, none of the exit polls foresaw the emphatic win for the NDA alliance or the rout of the UPA, the report adds.
This report is being updated as more numbers come in.