Andhra Pradesh has witnessed two state Assembly elections after the formation of Telangana from the erstwhile united Andhra Pradesh state. In the first elections, people entrusted the TDP alliance to form the government on the premise of a well-advertised notion that Mr. N. Chandrababu Naidu would spearhead the ‘development’ of the recently separated state.
However, the second election saw a historic victory with 151 MLAs to the YSRCP. Several reasons were attributed to the loss of TDP in the second election. One of the prominent reasons was the failure of TDP to fulfill its promise of development. The 2024 election again saw an unexpected defeat of YSRCP from 151 to a mere 11 seats in the state Assembly.
Various analyses have been drawn to reason this defeat, such as the protest against the three capital formula and land titling act, the arrest of TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu, Reddy dominance in the governance. However, although various analyses have touched on the angle of development, we feel the very aspect of the rapidly changing perception of ‘development’ and the political economy of the people of Andhra Pradesh has been overlooked.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
YSRCP claims their model as a sustainable development model by developing educational and health infrastructure along with an emphasis on social security measures through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT), which is expected to improve the overall quality of life in the coming future.
However, TDP’s direct attack is on the lack of physical or tangible development such as roads, or lack of decisiveness on the capital city, or not being able to attract foreign investment, which adversely affects the creation of employment. The recently concluded elections and the subsequent results have posed a very important question: what is the idea of development for people, and how it has impacted voting behavior.
YSRCP’s idea of development
During its term, YSRCP claims to have implemented numerous welfare and cash redistribution schemes. Some of the popular schemes include Amma Vodi, YSR Pension Kanuka, YSR Asara, YSR Cheyutha, Rhytu Bharosa, Sunna Vaddi, Nadu-Nedu, Vidya Kanuka and others, which aimed to assist the SCs, STs, other marginalized groups, elderly, women and children in the domains of health, education, livelihoods and pensions.
It is claimed that each family received at least Rs. 50,000 to Rs. 1 lakh per annum under several welfare schemes, a significant amount for low-income households. YSRCP claims that the total number of beneficiaries was nearly 3.9 crore of Andhra Pradesh population. There were notable improvements in the budgetary allocations for health and education, which also eventually led to better outcomes in terms of education indicators.
In particular, the development in education and infrastructure of schools can be highlighted under the Nadu-Nedu scheme, where the schools have been modernized on par with private schools, which also attracted a higher enrolment rate. Further, overall, Rs. 2,54,894 crore was believed to be credited as part of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) schemes between 2019 to 2024 under the YSRCP government.
In addition, Rs. 1,70,873 crore was spent on non-DBT schemes, such as loans, scholarships, subsidies and others. YSRCP, retaining nearly 40% of the vote share in the 2024 assembly elections shows that the DBTs had some impact on the voting behavior.
What also comes as interesting is the record increase in the GSDP of Andhra Pradesh. The share of AP in the annual growth rate of India increased significantly from 2022 to 2024. The state also stood among the top in acceleration of Per Capita Income. Further, the state also was ranked number one in ease of doing business due to the progress in making significant reforms to pull investment into the state. The state government also grabbed all the attention when they bagged large projects and secured investment for establishing over 107 large industries post 2019. Investment over Rs. 46,000 crore was committed.
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As the YSRCP dilly dallied on the question of the capital city and failed to create an alternate city as capital, TDP criticized it as one of the biggest mistakes. The lack of attention to basic infrastructure, such as roads was widely used as a political campaign. Further, TDP described the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) as draining state resources that otherwise would have been used for infrastructural development. Overall unemployment and inflation during the pandemic were also attributed to YSRCP’s governance.
Changing aspirations and sociopolitical dynamics
Voting patterns in Indian elections are entwined with several factors, such as religion, caste, the government’s economic performance, social and demographic details, and, most importantly, the political economy of the populace. Andhra Pradesh, one of the south Indian states, has always fared better in many social parameters measuring the state in relation to the national average.
Ten years ago, the state’s bifurcation created an aura that Andhra Pradesh was not doing well in income generation and was not able to attract foreign investments. People, in general, have been habituated to seeing quick, tangible changes, which undoubtedly will take time for a newly bifurcated state without any significant income-generating opportunities. The state has been demanding a special status for its economic development from the center, which has not been granted so far.
It should be recalled in this context that one of the important dreams that was sold to the land-owning communities in and around Krishna District (where Amaravati, the proposed capital city, is located) is an extrapolation of their land prices similar to the Hyderabad real estate boom.
The decision not to declare Amaravati as the capital led to a backlash. YSRCP winning comfortable seats in the 2019 elections from the Kamma-dominated regions was taken as many people do not want the transformation of agricultural lands into urbanized zones. But this election results should be read contrary to this.
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YSRCP in their understanding of the number game, has banked heavily on the non-dominant caste population and focused and sided and openly announced that their government is with the marginalized. However, YSRCP seems to have missed the point of ‘manufacturing consent’ as explained by Edward S Herman and Noam Chomsky.
The mainstream media, social media and the day-to-day conversations of those people coming from the dominant caste groups and occupying almost all the influential public and private spaces and also strive to maintain the status quo ‘manufactures’ the consent.
Further, students from Telugu-speaking regions have been faring well in getting admission to the IITs or performing in the IIT-JEE examinations. This provides them with the opportunity to enter elite educational institutions within and outside the country. It also provides them with an exposure that is direly missed by YSRCP, which is banked on welfare state measures.
What should not be forgotten in this context is that Andhra Pradesh also witnesses abundance of social and economic capital in the AP region. The high proportion of migration of skilled professionals (particularly within Engineering and Science backgrounds) from Andhra Pradesh to the US to realize the ‘American Dream’ has always been glamourised and romanticised by the Telugus where the migration is driven by networks of caste, kinship and marriage.
The large number of applications coming from Hyderabad to the US visa as well as the brides’ families showing interest to seek alliance of ‘america sambandham’ (Alliance) stands testimony for the high influx of Telugu migration to the US and other countries.
The migration for higher studies and eventually settling in the US for jobs is mostly dominated by upper castes, using the caste and social capital to achieve upward social and economic mobility. This has an immense impact on the changing aspirations and idea of development of many in the state.
Further, the influence of the Telugu diaspora, particularly those in the US involved in tech and engineering sectors, cannot be understated. Remittances from US to Andhra Pradesh has also been increasing, given the high proportion of skilled migration into the country.
The huge proportion of the Telugu community in America also helps the interests of the state in the IT sector and similar industries, influencing the CEOs and corporations in America to invest in the state given the high proportion of Telugu diaspora in Silicon Valley. These NRIs have been investing heavily in real estate and land in Andhra Pradesh, driven by aspirations of economic growth and urban development.
This shift in aspirations is reflected in the electorate’s behavior. There is a growing preference for a government that promises urban development, infrastructure improvements, and economic opportunities over one that focuses solely on welfare schemes.
Further, the sociopolitical dynamics of Andhra Pradesh further elucidate the electoral outcome. The upper castes, particularly the Kammas and Kapus, showed strong support for TDP due to promises of land value appreciation and development projects in Amaravati.
Lessons to learn from other states
A comparative analysis with the neighbouring state, Tamil Nadu, reveals interesting attributes. Welfare schemes combined with industrial growth, infrastructure, and urban development can be seen to pave better ways for electoral victory. DMK’s (or any other dravidian parties) victory in Tamil Nadu can be a perfect example of this.
While welfare schemes and financial prudence are important, the promise of urban development, economic growth, and modernisation now plays a pivotal role in shaping voter behavior, particularly in the fast-changing pace and perception of the notion of ‘development’ and the socio-spatial dynamics of Andhra Pradesh or any other south Indian states.
This shift has significant implications for the future of governance and political strategies in Andhra Pradesh, signaling a move towards a development-centric political landscape. However, to achieve sustainable development, the current government must balance investments in urban infrastructure with social welfare schemes, ensuring that all societal classes benefit.
This approach will cater to the diverse needs of the population and lay the foundation for inclusive growth, shaping future political strategies and election outcomes in Andhra Pradesh.
Sipoy Sarveswar teaches anthropology at Visva-Bharati, Santiniketan.
Boddu Srujana is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics, Easwari School of Liberal Arts, SRM University – Andhra Pradesh.
