Chandigarh: The post-poll survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)’s Lokniti program revealed that farmers’ anger had hurt the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in several northern states.
This along with other factors is believed to have stopped the BJP from getting a majority of its own in the lower house of parliament.
For instance, CSDS-Lokniti’s findings for Haryana – which has remained an epicentre of the farmers’ protest against the Modi government along with Punjab – revealed that over 61% of farmers voted for the Congress-led INDIA bloc while 35% voted for the BJP.
This resulted in a clear consolidation of the farming community – dominated by Jats – behind the Congress, making it win as many as five out of the ten Lok Sabha seats from the state in the recently concluded general elections.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
This was far better than the party’s performance in the 2019 general elections, when it drew a blank, while it won just a single seat in the 2014 elections.
Three out of five seats that the Congress won this time, including Hisar, Rohtak and Sonipat, are all dominated by Jat voters.
Besides, it also won two reserved constituencies due to the consolidation of Dalits in favour of the Congress.
On possible reasons for pushback from farmers, Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst as well as co-director at CSDS-Lokniti, told The Wire that one could safely presume that the BJP government’s strong opposition to the farmers’ movement in Punjab and Haryana in run-up to the general election made farmers vote against the BJP.
February protest
The issue of a legal guarantee to minimum support prices (MSPs) was among the prime reason behind the ‘Delhi chalo’ call by farmers from Punjab and Haryana in February – an extension of the famous 2020 farmers’ protests that knelt the Modi government down and got it to withdraw the three central farm Bills.
But the Modi government, along with help of the BJP-ruled Haryana government, used all means, including blocking national highways and dropping tear gas shells, to stop farmers from reaching Delhi this year.
Later, they were contained at the Punjab-Haryana border at Shambhu and Khanauri, where they have squatted for over five months now.
Also read: How Jats Halted the BJP’s Poll Wagon in the Hindi Heartland
In Punjab, the BJP faced maximum resistance from farmers during the Lok Sabha polls. All their 13 candidates had a tough time campaigning in villages during elections.
If the CSDS-Lokniti survey is to be believed (as shared by Sanjay Kumar), not more than 15% of farmers voted for the BJP in Punjab during the Lok Sabha polls.
On the contrary, survey findings suggested that over 50% of farmer voters went to the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had provided tactical support to farmers during the recent farmers’ movement.
Twenty-five percent of of farmer community votes went to the Congress.
This trend is reflected in the overall poll results, where the Congress (seven) and the AAP (three) won ten out of 13 seats in Punjab, whereas the BJP drew a blank.
While the Congress and the AAP had almost the same vote share, at around 26%, support from Hindus and Dalits helped the Congress win all major urban seats in the state, thereby reducing the AAP’s tally, suggested the survey.
On the other hand, the BJP’s former alliance partner, the Shiromani Akali Dal, could win just a single seat, which suggested that the second-oldest political party in India is still struggling to win back its old support among farmers and Sikhs.
Meanwhile, the farmers’ anger hurt the BJP in Rajasthan as well, suggested the CSDS-Lokniti survey.
As per data from the survey, 46% of farmers voted for the Congress in the state, while 45% voted for the BJP.
This presumably caused the BJP to under-perform in the state, which it won hands down in previous elections.
Winning 14 out of 25 seats, the BJP was down by ten seats this time, while the Congress was up by eight seats.
‘Open for dialogue but MSP guarantee law must’
Speaking to The Wire, Sarwan Singh Pandher, one of the prominent farmer leaders at the ongoing protest along the Punjab-Haryana border, said they were open for dialogue with the newly formed BJP-led NDA Union government.
“But the protest will not end until the [Union government] assures them a law to provide a legal guarantee to MSP,” he added.
On the survey pointing out that the BJP lost ground among farmers during the recent Lok Sabha election, he said this was bound to happen.
“How will people vote for the government that takes away their democratic right to protest in the national capital, drops tear gas shells on peaceful protesters and even kills them too?” said Pandher.
He said their appeal to the people during the Lok Sabha polls was to focus on issues, and that they responded accordingly.
Pandher added that their opposition to the BJP would continue as long as it does not respond positively to their demands.
