Polling will begin in a few hours in India’s most critical election since Independence, an election that many observers are describing as the quietest they have seen. Save for one refrain: “Aayega toh Modi hi.” Talk about the price rise or the lack of jobs or the massive corruption of electoral bonds, and this is what you hear in reply.
At the India Today Conclave recently, the prime minister said: “Aayega toh…” The audience, which included the group’s journalists, chorused obediently: “Modi hi.” Editor-in-chief Aroon Purie and his daughter Kalli Purie beamed with pride.
The prime minister has told the Reserve Bank of India he is busy with electioneering for 100 days but that they should be prepared for a lot of work coming their way the day after the swearing-in. The message: Aayega toh Modi hi.
Wait a minute. How does Modi or anyone else know he is returning as prime minister?
It is still some hours before polling begins and more than six weeks until the last vote is cast. We, the people, will decide who comes to power.
Yes, our mandate has been subverted again and again in the past few years as state governments we have voted for have been toppled through defections.
Yes, this contest is not fair. With two Opposition chief ministers shut out of the campaign by the Enforcement Directorate, the BJP’s fat bank balance allowing it to splurge like no other party can, the mainstream media an active player on the side of the ruling party, and the Election Commission appearing deaf to the Opposition’s concerns, the playing field is anything but level.
But however unequal, the election must be fought before the result can be declared. To announce the winner even before polling has begun is to tell the Indian voters it doesn’t matter who they vote for.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
You might be furious with the government for failing to keep its promise to generate jobs and control food prices; you might be feeling betrayed by its treatment of women; you might be dismayed by the inequality you see around you; after trusting the BJP to eradicate corruption, you might be feeling cheated when you learn it has accepted cash not just from companies handed government contracts worth thousands of crores but even pharma companies whose drugs had been found substandard.
But it doesn’t matter how disappointed or angry you are as a voter, the suggestion seems to be. You can’t do anything. The elections are only a festival to be celebrated, they are not an instrument to hold a government to account and to change it if necessary. The outcome is already decided. “Aayega toh Modi hi.”
That’s not true. Unless the election has been stolen using the voting machines, it is not possible for anyone to know yet who is coming to power. A large number of voters would still be making up their minds. And there would be many who know who they will vote for, but might not be talking about it.
If I had to pick a favourite newspaper front page, it would be The Telegraph on the morning of May 14, 2004. A picture of an inked finger was the main visual and the headline above simply said: “Amazing! Power of the Finger”. The Indian voter had sprung a result that had left everyone blinking in amazement. A line in the report read: “It would never be known if the voters had surprised even themselves.”
Perhaps, the result of 1977 had evoked the same emotion among the voters then.
The “Modi is returning” refrain sounds sometimes like a threat, sometimes a taunt, sometimes it is a friend asking you to accept reality, and sometimes a colleague who assumes an air of resignation at where the country has reached.
Every single time, it is an attempt to disempower you.
A democracy rests on the belief that we the people choose our government and that we can boot it out after its term if we are not happy with it. To declare the winner before the votes have been cast is to strike at the roots of this.
“Where is the Opposition?” the editors, television anchors and media owners ask by way of explaining why they lend their voices to the chant. “If not Modi, who?” they demand.
The BJP phrases the question more crudely: “Dulha Kaun Hai?”
In 1991, an election that will forever be remembered by the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, the Congress party chose P.V. Narasimha Rao to be the prime minister after the results came out. He led a full-term coalition government that liberalised the Indian economy and transformed the way we live.
In 2004, again, Manmohan Singh was chosen prime minister after the election had been won. He completed two full terms, leading coalition governments that gave Indians the Right to Education, the Right to Information, MGNREGA and the Right to Food Act – the last two schemes have become the lifeline of the poor now squeezed by the lack of jobs and the rising prices – and scripted the historic India-US nuclear deal.
You don’t need a “dulha” in an election. What you need is a manifesto.
The manifesto has to tell the people what the political party proposes to do in five years if voted to power. It has to list priorities, make concrete promises and set tangible goals that will improve their lives. The citizens have to be at the heart of this document.
So how does the BJP’s manifesto compare with that of the main Opposition party, the Congress?
The BJP document is called Modi ki Guarantee. In its 76 pages, the name Modi is mentioned 65 times and the prime minister’s photographs appear at least 50 times.
The Congress document is called Nyay Patra. Rahul Gandhi’s photographs appear four times in the 48 pages, and the only party leader mentioned by name is former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Let us compare the two on their proposals to tackle the jobs crisis, identified by the CSDS Lokniti survey as a top concern of the voters. The Congress addresses the issue in two sub-sections, Jobs and Unemployment, under the Youth and Economy sections respectively. The BJP does not have a separate section on employment and spreads its promises across the document. For the comparison, let us pick five each.
The Congress promises:
- A year’s apprenticeship with Rs 1 lakh for graduates and diploma holders under 25;
- Fast-track courts to decide paper leak cases and monetary compensation for victims;
- To fill 30 lakh Central government job vacancies; and to publish a job calendar for each department, institution and public body with details of vacancies and the timelines to fill them;
- To abolish the Agnipath programme and resume normal recruitment in the Armed Forces;
- To create a new employment-linked incentive (ELI) Scheme for corporates to win tax credits for additional hiring against regular, quality jobs.
The BJP promises:
- To strictly implement the law to stop misconduct in recruitment exams and ensure strict punishment;
- To fill the government vacancies in a time-bound and transparent manner;
- To work towards making Bharat a global manufacturing hub and enhance employment in the electronics, defence, mobile and automobile sectors;
- To continue investment in infrastructure for employment growth;
- To further expand the tourism sector and to take the textile, garment, and apparel industries to the next level, recognising the employment generating potential of these industries.
It is easy enough to see what the Congress is offering, since the goals are well-defined.
It is less so to understand what the BJP proposes to achieve. Increasing the number of jobs by one hundred would also be an enhancement. But surely, the party does not mean that. How do you quantify “expand” or “working towards” or “next level”? In the absence of numbers, it is not clear what the BJP promises to deliver or even whether it is promising anything at all.
Doesn’t matter, “Aayega toh Modi hi”, I have been told.
The same people were till some time ago mocking the Opposition alliance as a ragtag, bickering bunch that would come apart over disagreements on seat sharing or on who would be the candidate for prime minister. Polling is about to begin, and the alliance is together so far.
At the INDIA rally at Ramlila Maidan last month, it was a pleasant surprise to see the speakers seamlessly take over from one another. There was overlap in the speeches, with all of them speaking of the Constitution and democracy, but each also brought their own perspective and priorities. Kalpana Soren spoke of tribals, Uddhav Thackeray of farmers and federalism, Tejashwi Yadav of youth unemployment, Mallikarjun Kharge of caste census, Bhagwant Mann of black money, and Rahul Gandhi warned against attempts at match-fixing, the multiplicity of voices on the stage mirroring the diversity of the country.
Their meetings behind closed doors would not be as harmonious. When two equals interact, it is normal to argue. In our daily lives, we often disagree with the people around us and sometimes we quarrel noisily, but eventually we find a way to work together. Only rarely does a quarrel get out of hand. Resolving differences through discussion is the cornerstone of a democracy, in fact of social life itself.
The absence of argument, on the other hand, is a symptom of an unequal relationship.
“Ek akela” is not something to be proud of. It brings to mind only arrogant autocrats – Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un. The rest of us are creatures of the community – dependent on our families, friends, teachers, colleagues, neighbours and even the kindness of strangers.
“Mili-juli sarkar” is not a bad thing, it is enriched by the many points of view and kept in check by all. If anything, an alliance of equal partners works as a guarantee of federalism and democracy. At worst, it can fall. And the power returns to the people to choose the alternative.
Between April 19 and June 1, Indians will decide the direction the country will take. We will decide whether Modi will return or INDIA will win. We will decide whether we want all Indians to remain equal and whether we want to be free to speak our minds. Among other things, we might also decide the fate of the finger. Will it remain empowered to spring surprises or will it cease to matter?
Harshita Kalyan is a Calcutta-based journalist.
