Tamil Nadu is currently ablaze with political fervour as the general election looms on the horizon. With 39 parliamentary seats up for grabs, every political party is entrenched in a fierce battle to secure the lion’s share of representation.
At the forefront of this political melee stands the formidable alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Indian National Congress (INC). Their primary objective is to fortify their existing stronghold and secure a substantial portion of the parliamentary seats in the state.
In contrast, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is ruling at the national level, has strategically forged alliances with smaller regional parties to make inroads into Tamil Nadu’s political landscape. Historically lacking influence in the state, the BJP aims to broaden its reach by collaborating with local entities and establishing a foothold.
However, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of the principal opposition parties in the state, grapples with internal divisions. Despite its significant presence in Tamil Nadu politics, internal factions within the party pose it a formidable challenge.
Moreover, the AIADMK’s decision to contest separately from the BJP adds complexity to the electoral equation.
Strategically positioning itself, the BJP seeks to capitalise on the void left by the AIADMK by contesting independently, aiming to emerge as a credible alternative and secure a significant portion of seats.
Dravidian dominance
The political landscape in Tamil Nadu has long been dominated by the DMK and the AIADMK, a phenomenon that is rooted in the Dravidian movement, which champions social justice, linguistic pride and regional autonomy.
These parties resonate with voters through identity-driven issues, caste dynamics and a shared cultural heritage, which are further amplified by the influence of cinematic icons like M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa.
Also read: How the Dravidian Model of Development Succeeded in Tamil Nadu
The alliance spectrum
As the state gears up for the forthcoming general election, three major alliances centre stage.
The INDIA bloc, led in Tamil Nadu by M.K. Stalin’s DMK, includes the INC, the Vaiyapuri Gopalsamy-led Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the Indian Union Muslim League and smaller regional entities, emphasising diversity and a commitment to secularism.
The AIADMK alliance, despite internal strife following Jayalalithaa’s death, is a coalition with various parties, including the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Puthiya Tamizhagam (PT) and Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI).
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), spearheaded by the BJP, includes the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Tamil Maanila Congress and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), which is a breakaway faction of the AIADMK led by T.T.V. Dhinakaran.
They aim to extend their influence through collaborations, highlighting a broad spectrum of political alliances vying for dominance.
Previous election’s analysis
Reflecting on past election analyses, significant contests in 2009, 2014 and 2019 underscored the dynamic nature of Tamil Nadu’s political landscape.
Key factors contributing to electoral outcomes include charismatic leadership, effective governance and strategic alliances.
In 2009, a fierce contest unfolded between the DMK-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) (INC, VCK and IUML) and the AIADMK-led Third Front (the PMK, MDMK, the Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI(M))).
Also read | AIADMK-BJP Split: What Lies Ahead for Politics in Tamil Nadu and at the National Level?
Despite pre-election polls favouring the AIADMK, the UPA secured an unexpected victory with 27 out of 39 seats.
In 2014, the AIADMK clinched a resounding victory by securing 37 seats. The electoral landscape featured a showdown among the AIADMK, the NDA (including the BJP, DMDK and PMK), the Democratic Progressive Alliance (DMK, VCK, IUML, MK, PT), the INC and the Left and Secular alliance (CPI and CPI (M)).
The NDA captured the remaining two seats.
In 2019, the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) led by the DMK, and the NDA led by the AIADMK, vied for supremacy.
The SPA secured a commanding victory with 38 seats, while the NDA managed only one seat, won by the AIADMK.
The demise of J. Jayalalithaa in 2016 posed challenges for the AIADMK, which the DMK under M.K. Stalin capitalised on.
Chart by author.
Caste dynamics
Caste dynamics also play a pivotal role in Tamil Nadu politics, with various communities wielding influence and shaping political affiliations.
The Mukkulathor community, comprising about 11.7% of the populace, holds considerable sway particularly in the southern and central districts.
The Vanniyars, constituting approximately 16.9% of the population and who hold sway in the state’s northern region, predominantly align with the PMK, though they have also extended support to both the DMK and AIADMK on occasion.
Recent electoral trends portray a nuanced shift, with the BJP garnering support from Thevars, Gounders, SCs, upper castes, STs and minorities.
The DMK-led alliance secures votes from SCs, Muslims, Vanniyars, upper castes and STs, forming a coalition across various political parties and garnering support from diverse communities.
Chart by author.
The path forward
As Tamil Nadu braces for the forthcoming electoral showdown, alliances will undergo scrutiny, manifestos will be dissected and voter sentiments meticulously evaluated.
Against the backdrop of Dravidian legacy and contemporary aspirations, this election marks a pivotal moment in the state’s political history. The upcoming election could witness a three-way contest between the DMK-led INDIA alliance, the BJP-led NDA and the AIADMK alliance.
In recent times, Tamil Nadu has witnessed a flurry of political activity, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other leaders engaging with the electorate. Notably, K. Annamalai, the BJP state president, has emerged as a dynamic force, invigorating party’s presence through his statewide padayatra and emphasis on anti-corruption measures and opposition to dynastic politics.
Despite challenges, the BJP remains steadfast in its endeavour to strengthen its presence in Tamil Nadu, forging alliances and positioning itself strategically. The BJP is eagerly eyeing several parliamentary seats, including Coimbatore and Kanyakumari, where the party performed strongly in the last election.
With the PMK coming to the NDA, the BJP is going to benefit as the PMK has sizable influence among the Vanniyar community.
The INDIA bloc aims to secure all 39 seats, and the Congress seeks to maximise its seat tally to bolster the national count as alliances and electoral strategies continue to evolve in the run-up to the general election.
The AIADMK, which seemed to have lost momentum after Jayalalithaa’s passing, is now regaining strength in the state with the addition of the PT and SDPI to its coalition.
The inclusion of the SDPI is anticipated to notably strengthen the AIADMK alliance, particularly in the Dindigul constituency and neighbouring areas, where there is a sizable Muslim population.
Aamir Shakil is a political researcher at ETG.
