The 2024 Lok Sabha results were a shocker in every sense. Who would have thought that an ever-losing fifth-generation, supposedly unpopular dynast, would unsettle an unimaginably popular self-declared non-biological God? A month ago, even a mild suggestion that Narendra Modi is not invincible and even he could fall below the 272 mark in the Lok Sabha seemed like wishful thinking to most serious observers of Indian politics. Not long ago, saying this aloud would invite incessant trolling and personal attacks. Only a few objective experts like Yogendra Yadav were ready to put their reputation on the line and stick their necks out to say that Modi is indeed becoming unpopular on the ground.
The media frenzy and cacophony about 400-plus seats and a third term for Modi threatened to destroy the very foundation of Indian democracy, creating an environment of paranoia for many people. Most exit polls also predicted a resounding win for Modi.
After the exit polls, Rahul Gandhi, the MP-elect from Wayanad and Raebareli, had once again been written off as a non-serious politician. On the contrary, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did fall short of the majority mark. And the Congress has not only doubled its seat share but also made a significant comeback in North Indian states like Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. In Maharashtra, where the Congress couldn’t win any seat in 2019 and was considered as the weak cog in the MVA machinery, it emerged as the single largest party with 13 seats.
Gandhi’s personal gains are equally impressive. He won Wayanad by a whopping 3.34 lakh votes and Raebareli by 4 lakh votes. Both these margins are double than that of Modi’s slim victory margin of 1.5 lakh votes in Varanasi, where the prime minister had been given a walkover by the media. In Amethi, Kishori Lal Sharma became the giant slayer by defeating Smriti Irani. Despite this, even today, the same commentators are unwilling to acknowledge the turnaround by the Opposition, especially the way Gandhi has bounced back leading from the front.
Some have resorted to puerile analysis and mockery, something that doesn’t seem to bother the thick-skinned Gandhi at all. “This is the third worst performance of the Congress.” “Rahul should consider opening a gym in South Delhi.” “The backbencher who scored 33% is celebrating; the topper who scored 80% is crying.” Responding to these experts, a friend wrote, “Modi ji haare hain toh kuch soch samajh kar hi haare honge (If Modi has lost then it must be wise to lose).”
Also read: The Radical Rahul Gandhi Nobody Expected
Modi has still become the prime minister but he cannot be the same man after June 4. As Yogendra Yadav aptly described it, this is Modi’s personal defeat and his government has lost its Iqbal (aura). The temperatures have come down and the environment of fear has dissipated too. Modi will now have to walk on two secular clutches and bear the baggage of the hate mongering he did during these elections. The people of India have humanised his non-biological God-like image.
For Modi admirers, it’s not a sign of his waning influence but rather a proof that nobody could still come close to his numbers in the parliament. It’s true that the BJP can recover from this setback but for Modi the countdown has begun. What these commentators are deliberately hiding is the context in which the Congress party contested these elections. Gandhi was fighting an uphill battle against a far more formidable force. For the last ten years, he struggled to revive his image and earn significant electoral results for his party.
Most people would give up after so many upsets, especially when every loss would bring a barrage of personal jokes, hate and insults. Eventually, he managed to defeat the “Pappu” propaganda and make a space for his brand of angry-young-man politics. To do that he had to set out on two of the longest walks (the Bharat Jodo Yatras) by a politician in the history of independent India.
For the first time, there was great coherence in Gandhi’s pitch. His social media edits received millions of views and showed him as a friend of the workers, a customer of Mithun Kumar the hairdresser, and a leader ready to walk with the common man for hundreds and thousands of miles. Gandhi’s message was simple, “We need a leader with ears and not just a mouth.”
There are countless shorts and reels from the Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in which Gandhi passes the mic to the common people to speak and address the crowds. These were juxtaposed and edited with Modi’s videos showing his typical one way communication. I was in Wayanad when Gandhi filed his nomination papers. The craze for Gandhi was surreal. The posters in Wayanad presented a larger-than-life picture of Gandhi as the biggest ally of India’s poor. Gandhi’s photos from the Bharat Jodo Yatra are like that of the clichéd Malayalam superhero who fights for the oppressed.
Let’s also acknowledge the disparity between the opposition and the BJP. It was literally a race between the hare and the tortoise. The opposition had little money, with their bank accounts being targeted. In contrast, the BJP is the richest party, with friendly corporates ready to fill their golden belly to the brim. Two opposition CMs are still in jail. The entire mainstream media and BJP troll armies relentlessly attacked the Congress party and Rahul like wild hounds throughout the campaign, while Modi enjoyed 24/7 media coverage, with most TV anchors even figuratively licking his boots. We also saw how our democracy was trampled in Indore and Surat and Sambhal. Opposition parties had to fight against the ED, Income tax department, other law enforcement agencies, and a hostile election commission that ignored Modi’s communal speeches and falsehoods.
Imagine if there was a level playing field for the opposition. Despite all these odds, Gandhi emerged as an ultimate challenge for Modi in these elections. For many, he is the answer to if not Modi then who? A recent CSDS survey in UP noted that for 36% people Gandhi is the first choice for prime minister. He was the undeclared anchor of the INDIA alliance, the only opposition leader whose stature has become so towering that Modi couldn’t scare him with force.
His word would set the agenda for the opposition. So, to deny him his credit and moment of glory is unfair, especially when he’s been declared the sole reason for all the losses that his party has faced in the past decade.
You’d find innumerable articles on why Gandhi’s supposed hard left turn is dangerous and politically suicidal, but it’s exactly this shift that has made him one of the most popular leaders in India today. Being pro-poor and pro-marginalized can never make a politician unpopular in a country that’s always looking out for messiahs. From 2014 to 2019, these commentators advised the Congress to ignore the ‘fringe’ hate mongers. Congress did that and failed. Mocking Modi was termed as political suicide. Questioning institutions and talking about cronyism was also shunned. Gandhi could only succeed by doing the exact opposite. Unlike 2019, when the BJP had forced Gandhi to look more Hindu and claim that he’s a Brahmin for greater acceptance amongst the majority, this time around Gandhi did none of that. He didn’t fall into Modi’s traps and instead compelled Modi to respond to his charges.
Be it Modi’s astonishing outburst against Adani and Ambani or his impassioned defense of the constitution and reservation, Gandhi forced him to do that. For the first time, Modi stands on shaky ground. It won’t be an exaggeration to say that brand Modi is a sinking ship and we can already see the jumping rats. This has partly happened due to Modi’s own arrogance and contempt for others. His “ek akela sab par bhaari hai (one man vs everyone else)” and “Kaun Rahul (who’s Rahul)” find few buyers today.
Also read: A Humbling Loss: Why Modi’s BJP Failed to Win a Majority
His anti-Muslim rhetoric has belittled his Vishwaguru image. This open bigotry from the PM has blurred the thin line between him and the likes of Raja Singh and Narsimhanand. It doesn’t sit well with a vast section of Indians. This has also discredited his dog-whistles that would be earlier admired as his verbal sophistry. Modi also failed to scare Hindus enough, especially Dalits and OBCs with his lies on wealth redistribution. His Mangalsutra and buffalo remarks didn’t do that harm he wanted.
On the other hand, Gandhi was able to win back Dalit support for the Congress. Modi’s humble chaiwala image was shattered by his own insistence on being a non-biological godly entity. Nobody looks at him as the underdog and Rahul as the shehzada (prince) anymore. Gandhi has hammered it even further by saying “Mai aapka hoon, wo unke (Adani) hain (I belong to you, he belongs to him (Adani).” Even if Gandhi was born with a silver spoon, he’s transformed his image into that of a poor man’s leader. His constant mention of social justice, and saving the Constitution only pulled in more listeners and solidified his support base.
Gandhi stayed away from giving interviews to the mainstream media even as Modi gave a record number of interviews. The former Congress chief’s words were amplified mostly by independent creators. Every worker of the Opposition amplified his word like they were fighting an unwinnable final battle for survival. Gandhi also assured them that he’s not fighting just for the sake of it. Even if they couldn’t neutralise Modi 3.0, they managed to neuter the brute force of Modi’s pre-declared landslide.
Gandhi isn’t perfect. He is still reluctant to directly counter Modi’s anti-Muslim rhetoric. His abstract advocacy against hate through slogans like “Nafrat ke bazaar mein Mohabbat ki dukan (a store for love in the marker of hatred)” is welcome, but it’s time for Gandhi to assume a larger role as the Opposition leader of all Indians. He needs to create an environment where he can disincentivise Modi’s politics of fear mongering, lynchings, communal clashes, and summary justice through bullets and bulldozers. He needs to make Modi debate real issues that matter to all Indians. Modi has altered the thought process of many Indians. They see rights with contempt and government as the ultimate authority before which all subjects must kneel. For Gandhi, the real challenge is to remind the people that all Indians have the right to have rights.
