The absence of a pan-Rajasthan leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the party lacking clarity over the role assigned to former chief minister Vasundhra Raje, has ensured the high-stakes battle for Rajasthan pits the Congress’ incumbent chief minister Ashok Gehlot directly against Modi. Given that a prime minister is hardly ever under scrutiny in a state election, the campaign in the state centres around how Gehlot’s record and personality are perceived.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Gehlot’s record in governance, as even his opponents grudgingly concede, is largely praiseworthy. Even the more critical adjectives reserved for him – a “wily” and “shrewd politician” – are, at best, mild. Yet, this record may not be enough to assure the Congress electoral victory in the face of the many ifs and buts, some very peculiar to Rajasthan, that crop up in this campaign.
“But it’s the BJP’s turn”
Anti-incumbency is a given in most states but widely used terms such as revolving door or ‘roti palatna’ indicate that Rajasthan politics has created a dynamic of its own.
“Gehlot ji has done good work for the state, there’s no doubt about that,” Vikas Sethia told me as he fed pigeons at the Sanganeri Darwaza, one of Jaipur’s famed gates leading into the old city. “But this is the BJP’s baari (turn) to come to power,” he said.
This is a formulation that gives no insight into the state’s politics, merely into the history of electoral results. Since 1998, when Gehlot first swept into power, with 153 out of the state’s 200 seats, no incumbent party has ever won a second term. For the past 25 years and five elections, Gehlot and BJP’s Vasundhra Raje Scindia have taken turns to wield power, leaving the state accustomed to voting out incumbent parties.
“We have been happy with Gehlot ji once and then Vasundhra ji. It’s a good democratic tradition, we must follow it as it has worked for Rajasthan, “says Ramesh Mittal, a trader at Johari Bazaar.
Even those who are not naturally inclined to this formulation bring it up even in the most cursory of conversations. This is true from the palaces of the state to its streets.
Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot addressing the press. Photo: X/@ashokgehlot51
Hari Bairwa, who sells accessories from his thela (cart) near Bedi Chaupr, said “This isn’t a cricket game kee ab kis kee batting kee baari aayegee (who’s turn to bat now), changing a government just because it’s what we’ve done for a quarter of a century is stupid. It ignores the development Gehlot has done for the poor.”
The luxury of such a choice is not available to the Muslims. In his mid-seventies, Ajmal Lateef, whose family has traditionally been working in the Jaipuri quilt industry, has seen many changes in his constituency – Hawa Mahal. “This isn’t Bhairon Singh ji’s BJP, it isn’t even Vasundhra’s BJP, it is Modi’s BJP. They are still not giving her the post of the chief minister even though BJP voters are asking for it. No Muslim can think of just roti palatna for the sake of palatna, we have a lot to lose.”
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has sensed the increased polarisation brought about by the charged rhetoric of the BJP and fielded a candidate from the Hawa Mahal constituency. As is always the case with the AIMIM, this has only served to increase speculation over who gains from such a move.
“CM number one but the Gujjars are upset with him”
Sitting on the steps of a sweet-shop near the Mihir Bhoj Chowk at Bhandarej village, just off the new Dausa-Delhi highway, Hargovind Gujjar was dwelling on the history of his village before he stopped to say, “Gehlot ji is the best when it comes to the work he’s done, the CM has dum. But they messed up with [Sachin] Pilot, they took our votes saying Pilot will be CM.”
As a result, Hargovind explained, the community also felt that Pilot was humiliated so “90% of the Gujjar vote will not go to the Congress,” before reiterating that Gehlot is the best chief minister.
Dausa was at the heart of the Gujjar agitation in 2008 when the community was demanding ST reservations. Their anger at the time was directed against Vasundhra, then chief minister of Rajasthan.
Sachin Pilot. Photo: X/@SachinPilot
But the BJP was able to consolidate their vote after she promised them reservations. The man who led the Gujjar agitation, Kirori Singh Bainsla, fought the 2009 Lok Sabha elections from Tonk-Sawai Madhopur constituency on a BJP ticket. It was only in 2018, with Pilot as Congress state president, that the Gujjars returned to vote for the Congress.
The Gujjars are a decisive factor in 10 to 15 seats but wield influence over 40 seats. The BJP is evoking its legacy among the community by fielding late Gurjar leader Kirori Singh Bainsla’s son, Vijay, from Deoli-Uniara in Tonk.
It has also imported the communal rhetoric that has worked for it among the Gujjars in the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh. It has even deputed Ramesh Bidhuri, the MP who had recently used abusive language against a Muslim MP from the Samajwadi Party (SP), for election duty in the state.
Despite the BJP’s efforts, Congress leaders do not see the Gujjar vote as a lost cause. Pilot, they say, has played a key role in ticket distribution in this area and his impact could be great.
Hargovind conceded as much, “If Sachin Pilot gives one ishaara (indication) then all the Gujjars will once again vote for the Congress.”
Kirori Lal Meena. Photo: X/@DrKirodilalBJP
This battle over the Gujjar vote is only one part of a larger bid by both parties to attract different castes and communities. If the Gujjar vote goes one way, it is expected that the Meenas, who had strongly resisted the Gujjar claim to Scheduled Tribe (ST) reservation, will go the other way.
The BJP has been aggressively pushing its local leader Kirori Lal Meena as the party’s face in the state. The party has been working on the calculation that the Congress will lose the Gujjar vote while the BJP will make a dent in the Meena vote, which traditionally leans towards the Congress.
Gehlot is himself from the Maali caste and is perhaps the only prominent Congress leader of the Hindi belt who understands the importance of the non-dominant OBC vote. It is a vote that could be crucial at a time when calculations focus on the large caste groups such as the Rajputs and the Jats in the state.
“Gehlot is honest but his MLAs …”
Even as Gehlot’s image remains largely intact, charges of corruption plague several of his incumbent MLAs. Yet, going against the logic of addressing anti-incumbency, the party has repeated 76 sitting MLAs out of the 95 seats the Congress has declared so far.
The roots of this compulsion lie in the problems Gehlot faced within the party, from Pilot and the party high command, forcing him to seek the support of MLAs whom he is now obliged to repeat.
As he dealt with these problems, the BJP was on the prowl. It was looking to prise his MLAs away to engineer a change in government and repeat its success in the adjoining state of Madhya Pradesh.
“The BJP was offering crores to winning MLAs to cross-over. To keep them with him, Gehlot ji gave them poori chhoot (free hand),’ said Gopal Sharma, a retired government employee.
As if to tell me that his analysis is dispassionate, he makes it clear he’s going to vote for the BJP and pithily explains “Brahman vote hoon (I am part of the Brahmin vote)”.
When I ask him if he thinks the charges are genuine, he replies, “You have to go case by case. There are some MLAs who have done good work in their constituency, better than previous governments, but they are arrogant and their families have made money. That was true with the BJP and it is true of the Congress.”
Whatever the truth of the charges, the BJP has been successful in making this the narrative of these elections, constantly targeting the Congress on this score. Conveniently timed Enforcement Directorate (ED) raids have only seemed like an extension of their campaign.
Also read: What We Know So Far About Congress, BJP Candidates in Rajasthan
It hasn’t helped that Gehlot’s own deputy chief minister, Pilot, went on what he called an anti-corruption yatra (march). The overt reason for the yatra was to charge Gehlot with going soft on corruption which took place under Raje but the subtext was not lost on anyone in the state.
Dinesh Meena, who comes from a family of local politicians, explained the impact of the yatra: “Some people on the ground thought Pilot was saying Gehlot’s own people are corrupt, at least that’s what BJP workers went around saying.”
“Gehlot’s development programmes are great but will they reach the people”
In September 2023, the chief minister set out on a 9-day journey across the state, covering 18 districts, to publicise and strengthen the welfare schemes initiated by his government.
Some of these laws and schemes were hailed as ‘pioneering’, like the Indira Gandhi Shehari Rozgar Guarantee Yojana, which, like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in rural areas, assures work in urban areas.
This thrust on welfare schemes has ensured developmental issues are a key part of the electoral agenda. The laws and the schemes have been extensively branded– almost as if a leaf has been taken out of the Modi book of publicity.
The Congress, though, lacks a cadre of the kind which allows the BJP to claim direct credit for Modi’s schemes, whatever their actual impact on the ground. For instance, some among the women who had gathered near an anganwadi centre on Bala Fort Road, Alwar were under the impression that it was Modi who had given them health insurance. This, despite the fact that the Chiranjeevi health scheme in the state is one of Gehlot’s most publicised achievements.
When Balla Devi, one of the women at the anganwadi centre, said, “Modi ji has given us free medicines and mobile phones,” she had to be corrected by another in the group saying, “Why do you think it is called a mukhyamantri yojana (chief minister’s scheme)?”
The BJP, for a change on the backfoot in this narrative of vikas (development), has aggressively been trying to dismiss the schemes and yojanas as revadi or freebies. It has some resonance, especially amongst its upper caste constituency, like Satya Sharma, a retired teacher from Bassi who would begin to heckle anyone who spoke of the benefits they’d received from Gehlot’s work.
Sitting next to him, two men from the Meena community, Dinesh and Kalyan, summed up one of the decisive differences between the cadre, a difference that that will shape this poll, “The BJP’s supporters are loud and their workers spread misinformation, the Congress is not quick and cohesive enough to counter it.”
Radhika Bordia is an independent journalist based in Delhi.
