Is Gehlot-Pilot Rivalry to Blame for Congress's Drubbing in Rajasthan?

New Delhi: In the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has secured 115 seats, and the Congress party is down to 69.

Ashok Gehlot's thrust on welfarism even won appreciation from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During electioneering, Mod had assured, "The BJP will not halt any scheme of public interest but will strive to improve it. This is Modi's guarantee."

It was Gehlot versus Modi in the Rajasthan election.

Foregrounding welfare schemes, the Congress party hit the campaign trail six months ago with 'Mehngai rahat camp', which sought to convey to the people the benefits they could accrue from the initiatives of the Gehlot government.

Over 1,38,00,000 families are linked to Mukhyamantri Chiranjeevi Swasthya Bima Yojana allowing them to get free health services at private hospitals. At 72, Gehlot held four to five rallies in a day while Rahul Gandhi was only seen eight days before polling in the state.

Here is a list of assembly segments where Gandhi campaigned and the electoral outcome:

Taranagar: Congress's candidate emerged victorious in Taranagar, a hotly contested seat where BJP's Rajendra Rathore gave a tough fight. Rahul Gandhi campaigned for this seat on November 16.

Bundi: Rahul Gandhi's campaign in Bundi yielded success as Congress swept all three seats: Bundi, Keshoraipatan, and Hindoli. In 2018, the party won only one Hindoli seat.

Dausa: Dausa, a region where Sachin Pilot has a strong influence, includes seats such as Bassi, Chaksu, Thanagazi, Bandikui, Mahuwa, Sikrai, Dausa, and Lalsot. The party lost most of the Dausa seats this time, possibly because of the Gurjar community's anger against the party for not appointing its leader Sachin Pilot as the chief minister.

In the Barmer Area Constituency, where the BJP managed to win only one seat in 2018, Congress secured one seat this time, with sitting MLA Harish Choudhary emerging victorious in Baytoo. Rahul Gandhi addressed a public rally in this area. However, the rest of the seats shifted from Congress to BJP or rebels.

Rahul Gandhi continued his campaign in the Dholpur region, where the party had previously won six out of eight seats in 2018. This time, Congress secured five out of eight seats, while one went to Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and two to BJP. There has been a change in political dynamics since the last elections.

The Congress's campaign initially came out with the slogan 'Kam Kiya Dil se, Gehlot Phir se,' which was later changed to 'Kam kiya dil se, Congress phir se' as the party leadership didn't want to disappoint the Sachin Pilot camp.

Furthermore, this time the party failed to influence Gurjar votes in the state. Gurjars, Jats, Rajputs, and Meenas play key roles in forming the government. Gurjars's anger is palpable over not handing over the reins to Pilot.

The community holds influence over around 30 seats, mainly in the Karauli, Tonk, Hindaun, and Dausa districts of eastern Rajasthan. Out of the 31 seats that the Congress lost in the Rajasthan Assembly election, 14 come from the eastern part of the state, where Pilot’s community, the Gujjars, hold sway.

High-profile assembly seats 

Amber: Satish Poonia, a prominent Jat leader and former Leader of Opposition in the state, lost to Prashanth Sharma by a margin of 9,092 votes.

Nathdwara: C.P. Joshi, Congress's Vidhan Sabha speaker, faced defeat at the hands of Vishvaraj Singh Mewar with a margin of 7504 votes. Singh is a member of the royal family of Mewar.

Kota-North: Shanti Dhariwal, a minister in the Ashok Gehlot government, managed to win the Kota-North seat with a narrow margin of 2,000 votes from Prahlad Gunjal. Interestingly, this marks the first time Dhariwal secured the seat while Congress didn’t win the state, as he typically loses his constituency when Congress loses at the state level.

Civil Lines: Pratap Singh Khachariyawas, another minister in the Gehlot government, lost his seat with a significant margin of 28,329 votes to BJP’s Gopal Sharma.

Kaman: Minister Zahida Khan also faced defeat at the hands of BJP’s Nauksham Choudhary. The people of Deeg had been demanding that Congress not give a ticket to Zahida Khan, especially after the killing of Junaid and Nasir in her constituency.

Several other prominent figures such as Pramod Jain, B.D. Kalla (Bikaner West), Bhajan Lal Jatav (Weir), Mamta Bhupesh (Sikrai), Parsadi Lal Meena (Lalsot), Sukhram Vishnoi (Sanchore), and Ramlal Jat (Mandal) also lost their seats.

Additionally, seven-time BJP MLA and a significant figure in Rajasthan politics, Rajendra Rathore, was defeated from Taranagar by a margin of 10,345 votes to Congress's Narendra Budania.

Notably, Taranagar was the only place where Rahul Gandhi campaigned for Congress on November 16, just eight days before the voting on November 25 in the state.

Since the time of ticket distribution, the senior leadership wasn't happy with Gehlot's decisions and influence in ticket distribution, which later resulted in significant losses for the party. Despite this, candidates like Shanti Dhariwal from Kota-North managed to secure a place in the Vidhan Sabha, even though senior leadership had questioned and alleged him as a corrupt leader.

Rahul Gandhi was largely absent from Congress's campaign in Rajasthan. Though he referred to Rajasthan government welfare schemes during his campaign in other states, he did not hold any roadshow.

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