Congress's Narrower Wins, BJP's 3-Region Dominance, the Jat Vote: The Haryana Polls in Numbers

In the recently concluded Haryana elections, a marginal difference in average vote shares between the BJP and Congress suggests both parties enjoyed strong support from the electorate. Both have recorded an upward trajectory in comparison to 2019 – an outcome of increasing concentration of votes between the two national parties. A particular kind of growth demonstrates the BJP’s successful expansion into traditionally Congress-leaning regions, suggesting a broader appeal to non-Jat communities.

All this and more is revealed in a close read of the data from these polls and those of earlier ones. The Wire brings you the story of the polls in graphs. 

This is part two of the three-part series. Read part one here and part two, here.

BJP and Congress vote share in the Haryana assembly election, 2024

The marginal difference of 0.31 percentage points in average vote shares between the BJP and Congress suggests both parties enjoyed strong support from the electorate, including in crucial regions like Jat Land. However, the overall median vote share difference is 4.4 percentage points. In a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, median vote share is a better indicator of party performance. It’s less affected by extreme values and provides a more accurate measure of a party’s typical performance, especially when the data distribution is skewed or uneven.

In Jat Land, the difference in median vote shares is 6.64 percentage points. This indicates that the BJP outperformed Congress in a “typical” constituency, despite Congress being competitive in the region. It suggests successful mobilisation of Jats in favour of Congress. However, the BJP’s nine-seat advantage over Congress points to a counter-mobilization of non-Jat communities supporting the BJP. (Note: Jat-dominated refers to political, not numerical, dominance.) Similar patterns can be observed in other regions.

Main parties’ seat share trends

A look at the seat share trends between the two main parties – the Congress and the BJP in Haryana shows that both have recorded an upward trajectory in comparison to 2019 – an outcome of increasing concentration of votes between the two national parties.

In 2014, the BJP, riding on the Modi wave across the country won 47 seats with 52.22% vote share in the 90-member assembly. In 2019, it won 40 seats with 44.44% votes, and in 2024 it improved its performance by winning 48 seats with 53.33% vote share.

In comparison, the Congress has improved its performance in the state steadily over the last decade though it has been unable to win a majority to form the government.

In 2014 it won 15 seats, doubled its tally to 31 in 2019 and then recorded a further rise in 2024 winning 37 seats. Accordingly, its seat share percentage has also recorded an upward trend, rising from 16.66% in 2014, to 34.44% in 2019 and 41.11% in 2024.

Winning party constituency-wise trend

Although the electoral map has changed over the last three assembly polls, the BJP has retained its dominance in three specific regions of the state – southern Haryana comprising the National Capital Region, parts of central Haryana known as Ahirwal, and constituencies along the G.T. Karnal Road.

Main parties’ median winning margin in the Haryana assembly election, 2024

The BJP’s median victory margin of 10.79% indicates that in a typical win, they secured a lead of about 11%. In contrast, the Congress party’s median margin of 8.05% suggests their victories were generally narrower than the BJP. This comparison reinforces that the BJP’s wins were often more decisive. While both parties faced competitive races, the BJP proved more adept at securing larger margins in the constituencies they won.

Independent candidates secured a remarkably high median margin of 24.96%, implying that when they won, they did so convincingly. On the other hand, the INLD’s very low median margin of 1.64% underscores that their victories were often closely contested. The overall median margin of 9.57% indicates that most races were competitive, with the BJP’s typical margin slightly exceeding this average – a reflection of their broader electoral strength.

Constituency-wise winning margins

This offers insights into the competitiveness of elections in Haryana. In 2024, 26 seats were won with a margin of less than 5%, indicating closely contested races. This number is slightly lower than the 29 seats in 2019 and significantly less than the 35 seats in 2014, suggesting that while competition remains high, there has been a slight consolidation of voter bases over time.

The number of seats won by a margin of more than 20% decreased from 21 in 2014 to 15 in 2019, before rising slightly to 16 in 2024. This trend shows that while some strongholds remain where parties win comfortably, Haryana’s electoral landscape is largely competitive, with most races being closely fought.

Parties’ performance trend in reserved seats

Both the Congress and the BJP improved their performance compared to 2019. However, considering that the Dalit community is a traditional vote bank for Congress, this performance seems underwhelming. The sidelining of Selja Kumari likely contributed to this lacklustre outcome. The BJP’s improvement could be attributed to non-Jatav Dalits backing the party, mirroring their voting patterns in Uttar Pradesh and other states where non-Jatavs often vote differently from Jatavs.

Jat land and Jat Sikh land parties’ performance trend

In 2024, the BJP experienced a significant surge in Jat Land and Jat Sikh Land, increasing its seat count to 25 from 18 in 2019. This growth demonstrates the BJP’s successful expansion into these traditionally Congress-leaning regions, suggesting a broader appeal to non-Jat communities. Despite its reputation for Jat support, the Congress remained stagnant with 19 seats, unchanged from 2019. This stability indicates that while the Congress maintains a strong base in these areas, it failed to capitalise on its position or counter the BJP’s gains.

Meanwhile, smaller parties like INLD and JJP struggled to maintain relevance. The INLD, which once held 13 seats in 2014, managed only 2 seats in 2024, continuing its sharp decline. The JJP, after securing 7 seats in 2019, failed to win any seats in 2024, indicating its inability to sustain its brief momentum. It appears that the INLD and JJP’s losses have translated into BJP’s gains.

All three independents who won in Haryana this time hail from these two regions. BJP rebel Devender Kadyan claimed victory in Ganaur, while Congress rebel Rajesh Joon secured Bahadurgarh. Savitri Jindal, mother of BJP MP Naveen Jindal, won as an independent from Hisar.

Region-wise parties’ performance, 2024

BJP’s success in Jat Land is notable given its traditionally Jat-dominated electorate, which has historically leaned towards Congress. This suggests that BJP effectively mobilised non-Jat voters while also gaining traction among Jat voters, likely through targeted outreach or by fragmenting Jat votes. The NCR Region was another stronghold for BJP, where it won almost all the seats, showcasing its ability to resonate with urban and semi-urban voters.

Congress’s strength in the Ambala Division aligns with its appeal to Punjabi, Sikh, and other urban communities, while its foothold in Jat Sikh Land indicates continued support among Sikhs.

INLD’s near disappearance, particularly from regions like Jat Land and Ahirwal, signals a sharp decline in its influence—a trend evident since the previous elections. This election solidified the bipolar contest between BJP and Congress, with regional and community-based parties playing a marginal role. The two main parties captured the majority of the electorate’s attention, reshaping the political landscape.

Women representation in the assembly 2014-2024