The last phase of Bihar assembly elections is over. In the second and final phase of voting across Bihar’s 20 districts (122 constituencies), the average voter turnout was 68.76%, with women once again voting in a significantly higher percentage than men, though the actual voter turnout in both phases favoured males.

A historically high voter turnout in the Bihar election has been recorded in the 2025 election, at 66.91% for both phases combined. The male voter turnout was 62.8% and female turnout was 71.6% of all registered voters for the election. More voters turned up in the second phase than in the first, Election Commission data records.

At the end of a tightly-contested election, multiple exit polls have indicated a strong showing for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the election. Dainik Bhaskar poll predicts the ruling alliance will win 145 to 160 seats, with the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress party, Left parties and others securing 73 to 91 seats and others scoring 5 to 10 seats.

People’s Insight poll has projected that the NDA would secure 133 to 148 seats, the Grand Alliance 87 to 102, and the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) two seats or none, and others three to six seats. Matrize forecasts a sweep for the NDA with 147 to 167 seats, while People’s Pulse suggests an NDA advantage, projecting 133 to 159 seats will go into the alliance's kitty, and 75 to 101 for the Grand Allince, followed by none to five for JSP.

While the final results will determine the actual balance of power, exit polls have had a very mixed record of 'predictions' of poll outcomes for Bihar. In 2015 and 2020, polls underestimated the performance of the Grand Alliance parties – then overestimated the performance of the NDA.

Bihar’s social complexity, regional variation and multi-cornered contests made polling very tricky. High last-minute turnout swings and the large share of silent or undecided voters often skew predictions. Even the broad direction of the polls related to Bihar have been right half the time, making it highly unpredictable.

Also read: Why Fall in Share of Women Voters in Bihar SIR’s Final Rolls Signals a Serious Regression

Therefore, all eyes will be on the Election Commission on November 14, the day of counting.

Strong regional variations

Araria, Katihar, Purnia, Kishanganj and Supaul – which voted on November 11 – are part of the Seemanchal region of Bihar, traditionally a Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) stronghold. The region accounts for a significant proportion of the backward classes, including the Yadavs, as well as Muslims and Dalits. Several constituencies in this region border Nepal, or are close to India's border with Bangladesh.

These areas were in the news this election due to the Special Investigative Revision (SIR) undertaken by the Election Commission just months before the polls. The BJP and its allies raised the issue of foreign nationals – Nepali, Bangladeshi, and others – allegedly living illegally in these areas, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan focused on bread-and-butter issues and mobilised voters against alleged discrepancies and exclusions in the re-drawn voter lists.

Assembly segments in several Seemanchal districts voted in the first round, showing high turnouts. Higher voter participation compared with previous elections typically signals a tough contest between incumbents and challengers – though Bihar has often defied conventional trends in the past.

In the second phase, the highest voter turnout was recorded in Kishanganj at 76.14% (5pm), followed by over 75% turnout in Katihar. Voter turnout in Purnia and Supaul also crossed the 70% mark, according to the Election Commission of India.

Crowded electoral field

The 2025 Bihar election campaign was marked by a crowded field, including the arrival of JSP led by Prashant Kishor, which followed the yatra model and drew national attention through its high media visibility.

Among established parties, the BJP sought to build an independent foothold, moving beyond its long-standing junior-partner role with the JD(U). The two NDA main constituents have already shared five terms in power in Bihar, but entered the polls with a mixed legacy – there were significant complaints from voters on the ground about non-delivery of the promised benefits, which the ruling parties later tried to make good on.

The Grand Alliance remained largely intact in terms of allies – minus Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his JD(U), which switched sides to the NDA in January 2024. However, there were occasional tensions over seat-sharing. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress and Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD – the party founded by Lalu Prasad Yadav in 1998 – campaigned side by side, including during the Voter Adhikar Yatra Gandhi led through the state. Yadav was also declared the CM "face" of the opposition alliance.

The BJP and JD(U) also faced criticism for not clarifying the power structure within their alliance. This became clearer, however, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and several chief ministers, MPs and senior BJP leaders campaigned extensively in the state, often making divisive remarks.

For the first time, the BJP and JD(U) contested an equal number of seats in Bihar in 2025, with the national party catching up with its regional ally – a move that has fuelled speculation about possible reshaping of the alliance if the NDA returns to power.

Voter concerns and promises

From the voters’ perspective, however, the election was fraught with challenges. The SIR exercise, conducted over just a few weeks starting late July, required voters to produce multiple documents proving their identity, domicile and even the voting history of their families. For voters who were not on Bihar’s electoral rolls in 2002, the burden was greater, as the Election Commission demanded documentary proof of least one parent being a registered voter.

Also read: 90% Surveyed Migrants Outside Bihar Didn't Know of SIR: New Report Challenges EC's Official Line

About 65 lakh voters were removed from the draft roll published on August 1, while another 3.6 lakh were excluded in the final list, reportedly leading the Bihar voter list to shrink from 7.89 to 7.42 crore voters in the final roll.

The Election Commission said in a press note on the evening of November 11 that the total electors were 7.45 crore.

Nevertheless, employment and migration topped voter concerns, with Bihar beinng a net labour exporting state in a time of growing anti-migrant sentiment in many parts of the country. The condition of education and basic services – especially schools, health centres and local infrastructure – drew widespread criticism, especially from women and young men.

Law and order and governance issues, from corruption to everyday safety concerns of women, remained central in voter's conversations in both phases, with both the ruling and opposition blocks pointing fingers at each other.

Inflation and welfare delivery also featured strongly, as voters complained of rising prices and patchy access to government schemes. In September, weeks before polling began, the Bihar government cleared several cash and welfare transfers, including a Rs 10,000 'first installment" for women setting up businesses.

Meanwhile, the RJD assured each family in its manifesto that one member would secure a government job, should it come to power. That would be upwards of 2 crore government jobs, created over the next five years.

Often called Bihar’s political heartland, the Magadh region – including Gaya (67.5% turnout) and Jahanabad (over 64% turnout) – also saw strong polling and tight contests. This is the region of Bihar where caste arithmetic, agrarian distress and local development dominate every election campaign narrative. The

BJP and JD(U) have both invested heavily here, aiming to chip away at the RJD’s traditional influence. Turnout was brisk, suggesting a competitive fight across most segments.

Final-day voting trends

Bhagalpur, part of the historical Anga region, saw steady voting through the day (total turnout 66% by 5pm). Once a Congress and RJD bastion, it has become a BJP stronghold in recent elections, though anti-incumbency and local issues such as employment remain key. High voter interest indicates the contest is still open in a few urban and semi-rural seats.

The Kaimur plateau and hills areas, where, too, the voting crossed 67%, saw enthusiastic participation despite its terrain and connectivity issues. The region, which borders estern Uttar Pradesh, has a mix of agrarian voters and first-time participants, with development and infrastructure issues shaping much of the local debate. Turnout trends suggest voters were keen to make their presence felt.

In Mithilanchal, represented by districts like Madhubani, voting began slowly but picked up through the afternoon, ending at 61% according to Election Commission data. The area has a reputation for being politically aware yet unpredictable in terms of voting patterns.

Traditional loyalties between the BJP and RJD-led alliances remain strong, with the Jan Suraaj campaign also becoming a talking point among young voters. Smaller parties may once again play a decisive role in Bihar’s power arithmetic.

Also read: From Padyatra to PowerPoint: Why PK's Jan Suraaj Resembles a Political Startup, Not a Party

With the contest tightening between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, the vote share of newer and regional players – from Prashant Kishor’s JSP and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM, to Pappu Yadav’s JAP and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM – could tip outcomes, especially in closely fought constituencies.

In several districts, particularly across Seemanchal, Mithilanchal and central Bihar, these parties are polling in the four to eight per cent range, according to the exit polls, which suggests they might split the vote banks of traditional parties.

Over 2,600 candidates participated in the electoral contests across Bihar, with voters showing up at 45,399 polling stations in Phase 2 and well as Phase 1.

This story was originally published at 8.03pm and updated at 9:56pm. 

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