New Delhi: Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress, accustomed to a direct fight in the Himachal Pradesh elections, not only have to grapple with the presence of Aam Aadmi Party this time, but are also besieged by rebellion amidst their respective ranks in the days leading up to the polls.
In nearly a fifth of the seats that will be going to polls, both Congress and BJP are grappling with unhappy former ministers, MPs and legislators who have been denied tickets.
As the last day of filing of nominations drew to a close on Tuesday, October 25, the picture became clearer.
A total 561 nominations were filed, of which 376 were filed on Tuesday. Out of these, nearly 20 each were papers filed by BJP and Congress rebels who appear to be in contest against their parties’ official picks. Both the parties now have time till October 29, the last date for withdrawal of nominations, to convince the rebel candidates to withdraw their papers.
The state will vote on November 12 and the counting of votes is due on December 8.
Rebels can impact outcomes as half the seats in Himachal were won by less than 5,000 vote margin
In the 2017 election, BJP had formed the government having won 44 seats in the 68-member assembly.
Congress had won 21 seats, independent candidates had won two, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), one. However, when it came to vote percentage polled by each party, the contest between BJP and Congress was relatively close. BJP had bagged 48.8% of votes polled while Congress got 41.7%.
In this respect, the role that the rebels might play becomes significant. Because each one of them commands a certain following in their constituency, in the event of a close contest the votes polled by them can create a difference in the outcome of the election.
Also read: Himachal Polls: BJP Announces Candidates to 62 Seats, Denies Tickets to 11 Sitting MLAs
Himachal Pradesh is a small state and the average voter turnout in a constituency usually ranges between 20,000 and 30,000. As such, the margin of victory is also usually small. In the 2017 polls, in half of the seats – 34 – the margin of victory was fewer than 5,000 votes. It was fewer than 1,000 votes in five of these constituencies.
Thus, keeping any rebellion within check becomes very important for both the traditional rivals, especially since this time AAP has also fielded candidates in all the 68 seats.
Father-son duo turn BJP rebels in Kullu Sadar and neighbouring Banjar
In the case of BJP, the party is facing the biggest rebellion in Kullu Sadar, where it gave a ticket to a retired teacher, Narottam Thakur.
In protest, its former MP Maheshwar Singh filed his nomination as an independent candidate. Congress has given its Kullu Sadar ticket to its sitting MLA Sunder Singh Thakur who had defeated Maheshwar Singh in the 2017 polls.
Supporters of Maheshwar Singh take part in his nomination filing procession for the upcoming Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, in Kullu, Friday, Oct. 21, 2022. Photo: PTI
Earlier, BJP had given its nod to Singh, who filed his nomination on October 21, but the party later gave the ticket to Narottam Thakur after Singh’s son, Hiteshwar filed his nomination as an independent from neighbouring Banjar seat. From Banjar, BJP had fielded its sitting MLA Surendra Shourie.
However, Hiteshwar, who is a Zila Parishad member, was eyeing this seat and now the party is facing rebellion in two constituencies it had won last time.
Incidentally, former minister Khimi Ram Sharma is the Congress candidate from this seat.
Also read: As AAP Focuses on Gujarat, Himachal Readies for Another Congress-BJP Fight in Assembly Polls
Change of seat of sitting minister leads to rebellion in BJP in Fatehpur
Another former BJP MP, Kirpal Singh Parmar, has turned rebellious in Fatehpur.
Parmar filed his nomination as an independent category after the party shifted its forest minister Rakesh Pathania from Nurpur and gave him the ticket from this constituency. The tussle in the BJP is likely to benefit the Congress candidate, Bhawani Singh Pathania, who won the by-election to the constituency in 2021 following the demise of his father Sujjan Singh Pathania. The senior Pathania was a former minister who had won the seat in 2017.
Meanwhile, other former BJP MLAs who have turned rebels this time after being denied tickets are Tejwant Negi in Kinnaur, K.L. Thakur in Nalagarh, Abhishek Thakur in Sundernagar, Praveen Sharma in Mandi Sadar, Subhash Sharma in Bilaspur Sadar, Vipin Nehria in Dharamsala, Manohar Dhiman in Indora, Indra Kapoor in Chamba, Sanjeev Sharma in Badsar, Rajinder Dhirta in Rohru, and Raj Kumar Koundal in Jhandutta.
Congress candidate from Shimla Rural constituency Vikaramditya Singh takes part in a procession before filiing his nomination papers for the upcoming Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, in Shimla, Friday, Oct. 21, 2022. Photo: PTI
Two former ministers turn rebels as Congress denies them ticket
In the case of Congress, it is facing rebellion from two of its former ministers and 18 former MLAs.
In Pachhad, its former minister and seven-term MLA Gangu Ram Musafir filed his nomination as an independent candidate after the party gave the ticket to a former BJP leader, Dyal Puri. Incidentally, the party took the decision to drop Musafir as he had lost his last three assembly elections from the constituency. BJP has fielded its sitting MLA Reena Kashyap who had defeated Musafir in the 2019 by-election by 2,742 votes.
Another former Congress minister who has rebelled this time is Kuldeep Kumar in Chintpurni. Kumar, who has been in active politics for nearly 30 years and had contested on a Congress ticket six times, was denied a ticket by the party this time. A four-term MLA, he had first entered the Himachal assembly in 1993. After Chintpurni became a reserved seat in 2012, Kumar contested from here twice and won once.
In the 2017 polls, he lost to Balbir Chaudhary of BJP who has been fielded by the saffron party again. The Congress, however, changed its candidate and gave the ticket to its youth leader Sudershan Singh Bablu.
Like BJP, Congress is also facing rebellion from its former legislators in several constituencies. Former party leaders who have now filed nominations as independent candidates include Jagjivan Pal from Sullah, Subhash Manglet from Chopal, Tilak Raj from Bilaspur, Biru Ram Kishore from Jhandutta, Vijay Pal Khachi from Theog, Paras Ram from Anni, Lal Singh Kaushal from Nachan, Satish Kaul from Jaisinghpur, Sanjeev Bhandari from Jogindernagar, Rajinder Thakur from Arki and Yuvraj Kapoor Karsog.