The Union government beating hasty retreat on the advertisement for the lateral entry of 45 ‘experts’ in the bureaucracy, the draft of the Broadcasting Bill and the Waqf [Amendment] Bill is, apparently, the manifestation of the allies’ – primarily the Janata Dal [United]’s – nuanced resistance against Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s style of functioning.
Now, the JDU headed by Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar has joined the 0pposition parties in demanding the Centre to stop the supply of arms and ammunition to Israel perpetrating genocide in Gaza in gross violation of the United Nation’s [UN’s] mandate and the internal laws. JDU chief spokesman, K. C. Tyagi, attended a meeting with the Congress, Samajwadi Party and Aam Aadmi Party MPs among others on Saturday, August 24, condemning “the ongoing Zionist aggression and heinous genocide of Palestine people by Israel”.
The government’s repeated rollbacks have surprised, pleasantly the opposition, and unpleasantly the diehard Modi fans. But beyond the pleasant and unpleasant emotions, there lies two broad realistic messages: First, the June 4, 2024 election results have compelled Modi to lead a coalition government, and he can ill-afford to make a whimsical decision. And, if he takes it he can’t get away with it with the presence of the allies – particularly the Janata Dal [United] with 12 MPs in the Lok Sabha. Secondly, the 18th Lok Sabha has got a strong and effective opposition with Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav working in harmony to demolish the ‘Modi myth’ in a sustained and systematic manner.
The significant point is Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party with 16 MPs had no objection to the lateral entry move. But, the JDU’s objection was potent enough for Modi to retract. And, these are not going to be the only three rollbacks that the Modi government has undertaken.
The JDU, even after switching over to the National Democratic Alliance ahead of the 2024 polls objected to the controversial Agnipath scheme – aimed at changing the character of the Indian Army and militarising the society – which became a major source of youths’ unrest. Even after the formation of the Modi-led NDA-3, the JDU’s chief spokesman K. C. Tyagi has demanded the Union government to “reconsider” the Agnipath scheme. It will be interesting to see how long the government persists with it.
The ruling party was in a tough spot last month when the Supreme Court struck down the Uttar Pradesh police’s order to display the names of eatery owners on the Kanwar Yatra routes. The order was aimed at revealing the religious identities of the shop-owners and fanning a divide in society on communal lines.
Kanwar Yatra. Photo: X/@SanatanPrabhat
But realistically, the SC’s order came as a face-saving formula for the Modi government. The allies had joined the opposition in objecting to the UP police’s order, and given the dependence of the BJP on them, the Centre would have been compelled to intervene in the UP police’s sectarian action.
Inability to evolve
The problem with the Narendra Modi-led order in its third term in office is it has failed to evolve itself to the parameters of the coalition dharma. In the two months after the formation of the government, the realisation has not sunk in that the electorate has given the mandate for Modi to become the PM but with the restrains required in coalition politics.
By his demeanour, disposition and actions, it is clear the PM is under pressure. But the pressure lies in his inability to evolve to the imperatives of coalition dharma that his predecessor, Atal Bihari Vajpayee leading a 24-party coalition adhered to with felicity and ease. There is no obvious reason for Modi to stay under much pressure. The BJP has got 240 MPs in Lok Sabha – a reasonably comfortable number to lead the government.
Narendra Modi, Chandrababu Naidu, and Nitish Kumar. Photo: X/PTI
But instead of evolving himself to the political reality after the June 4 results, Modi went into a denial mode. By keeping the same set of ministers and repeating Om Birla – attacked by the opposition for his meek acquiescence to the ruling party – as the speaker of the Lok Sabha, tried to create the impression that nothing had changed.
The allies, too, by not forcing Modi to part with the plum portfolios and speaker’s position, let Modi bask in the temporary illusory light of the denial mode in the initial days. The Modi-inclined media played up the stories of how Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu have “surrendered” to Modi to “save” their skin in their respective states.
Painful realisation
The BJP’s hasty retreat on the lateral entry, aimed at filling the bureaucracy with its loyalists in the name of “experts”, Broadcast Bill, aimed at shackling the media, and Waqf (Amendment) Bill, designed to dilute the minorities’ hold over their religious property and rights is the reflection of the realisation that the Prime Minister is not in a position to act in the manner he acted during his previous two stints.
This realisation is painful in light of the fact that Modi has not been used to acquiescing to the coalition dharma even from his days as the Gujarat chief minister. Prior to the June 4 results, he always had the brute majority to get away by insulting the opposition and trampling the minorities – be it as a Gujarat CM or PM for two previous terms.
If it comes to adding more pain to the PM on the real issues, a socialist Nitish Kumar is better than Chandrababu Naidu who is known more for his corporate-style operations. If Modi is known for enjoying brute power and macho style, Nitish is a proven operator in coalition politics. His JDU was a key ally in A.B. Vajpayee’s ministry and he handled key portfolios in the Union government before becoming the Bihar CM in 2005 with the BJP’s support.
Power of unpredictability
The Modi government’s recent retreat on the lateral entry and two other draft legislations is not going to be the end of the troubles. The JDU despite being part of the NDA is explicitly with the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Samajwadi Party in pressing for the caste census – a thorn in the Sangh Parivar’s flesh.
Nitish has made it abundantly clear that unemployment is as big an issue for him as for the opposition parties by announcing in his Independence Day address on August 15 that his government would employ 12 lakh unemployed youths in the coming years.
This column in no way suggests that Nitish will switch sides to the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) at this stage. But behind his calm and composed demeanour, Nitish holds the power of unpredictability that will keep the BJP on tenterhook.
Of late, the RJD – the largest party in Bihar – has turned soft on the JDU with the RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav staying guarded in his words on Nitish but belligerent in his opposition to the BJP. It’s because, they (RJD and JDU) are competing for the same space –social justice, unemployment and unprecedented inflation bedeviling the people.
On the other hand, the BJP has not only failed to live up to the imperatives of coalition politics. It’s yet to come out from the anti-minorities politics which failed it despite the PM going out of the way to instil fear among the Hindus against Muslims with his use of Mangal sutra and mujra rhetoric in Bihar, Rajasthan and Haryana in 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author, media educator and independent researcher in folklore.
