Chalking out a new strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party (SP) national president Akhilesh Yadav is all set to tap into three groups of voters whom he has together classified as PDA: pichde (backward), Dalit and alpsankhyak (minority)
Akhilesh considers this a formidable combination to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance – rechristened as New India, Developed Nation, Aspiration of People of India (NDA) – at the crucial general election in 2024.
Political analysts believe that UP has 40-45% OBC, 20% Dalits and 19% Muslim voters accounting for around 78% of all voters in the state. Akhilesh’s target is to wean away a large chunk of this group to his fold.
He may have lost four consecutive elections in UP since 2014, yet he is strongly of the view that his new PDA formula can transform his party’s fortunes.
Notwithstanding his hopes, expectations and calculations, Akhilesh’s strategy appears to be facing some major challenges on the ground.
P of PDA means Other Backward Caste votes
According to political analysts, of the total OBC voters in UP, the Yadav community accounts for the majority with a 9% vote share. They are traditional voters of SP.
A post-poll study conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said that 83% of Yadavs voted for the SP in the 2022 assembly elections. However, Akhilesh has struggled to secure the remaining 35% of the vote of non-Yadav OBC voters who have shifted to the BJP since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
His father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav had worked diligently to win over a large number of non-Yadav OBC voters by building up leaders like Beni Prasad Verma, Phoolan Devi and Raghuraj Shakya, among others. However, Akhilesh has not been able to carry forward that legacy effectively, leading to a decline in the SP’s non-Yadav OBC vote bank.
In preparation for the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav did form alliances with various regional outfits representing these castes, resulting in a significant increase in the SP’s vote share from 21% in 2017 to 35% in 2022. But this failed to pay the desired dividends. However, now the challenge he faces is in maintaining the unity of the coalition of small parties.
Raj Pal Kashyap, state president of SP’s Backward Cell says, “We have already commenced yatras (rallies) for the OBC’s and have conducted seminars on caste census and are conducting 4 programs every day.”
Rajpal Kashyap addressing a gathering in Lucknow. Photo: Twitter/Pal Kashyap
Rajbhars
Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA formula suffered a significant blow when Om Prakash Rajbhar, the president of the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), declared his decision to join the NDA at a press conference in Lucknow on July 16th. Rajbhar attacked SP and said “Akhilesh Yadav intends to turn OBC’s into mere loaders instead of leaders, while the BJP is actively promoting leaders from OBC communities.”
The Rajbhars, said to account for 4% of the state population, are largely spread across Eastern UP and play a major role in the electoral politics of the state . They are largely represented by the SBSP.
Om Prakash Rajbhar with Union home minister Amit Shah. Photo: Twitter/@oprajbhar
In the 2017 assembly elections, Om Prakash Rajbhar was in alliance with the NDA and also became a minister in the Yogi Adityanath government. However, a political opportunist that he is, he switched loyalties to the SP just before the 2022 state assembly elections.
His significance can be gauged from the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent him a congratulatory message on the wedding of his son in June last year. The message came in handy for Rajbhar to claim his clout over the ruling dispensation.
However, Raj Pal Kashyap believes that Om Prakash Rajbhar leaving the SP alliance will not have a substantial impact. He says, “Om Prakash Rajbhar’s absence will not harm us. We have influential Rajbhar leaders within our own ranks, such as Ram Achal Rajbhar and Sukhdeo Rajbhar’s son.”
Also read: What Does Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Return to NDA Mean for UP Politics?
Kurmi vote
Kurmi voters are estimated to constitute around 5% of the state’s population. Significantly, about 15% of these are concentrated in Eastern UP. According to the post-poll study conducted by CSDS, NDA received 66% of Kurmi and Koeri votes in the 2022 assembly elections.
In UP, Sone Lal Patel was an influential Kurmi leader who formed his own party. However, after his demise, his party split into two factions – one under Sone Lal Patel’s daughter Anupriya Patel which is allied with BJP; and the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) led by Sonelal Patel’s other daughter Pallavi Patel, allied with the SP.
Akhilesh Yadav with Krishna Patel paying tribute to Sone Lal Patel on his birth anniversary. Photo: SP Office
SP allocated six seats to the Apna Dal(K) for the 2022 assembly elections. Pallavi Patel contested on the SP ticket and defeated Keshav Prasad Maurya, who currently serves as the deputy chief minister in the Adityanath government. But Apna Dal(K) could not win even a single seat and got only 0.278% votes. On the other hand, NDA’s ally Apna Dal (S) contested the assembly elections on 17 seats and won 12 of them.
Senior journalist Sharat Pradhan says, “SP lacks prominent Kurmi leaders. Despite Pallavi Patel’s significant victory against Keshav Maurya, Akhilesh does not appear to be giving her much importance. In sharp contrast, the BJP seems to recognize the significance of the Kurmi vote and has therefore given Anupriya Patel a berth in the Modi government.”
The significance of the Kurmi community can be observed from the fact that during this recent UP visit on July 7, Modi made it a point to visit the home of Pankaj Choudhary, a prominent Kurmi leader who is a six-time MP from Maharajganj. Currently, he is serving as a MoS in the central government.
Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya
The Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya communities constitute around 6% of the state’s population. According to the CSDS post-poll study, the BJP received 64% of the votes from these communities, while the SP could obtain only 22% in the 2022 assembly elections. Political analysts suggest that it seems difficult for SP to recapture this vote bank from the BJP.
With a view to wooing these communities in the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh adopted a two-fold strategy. Firstly, he struck an alliance with Keshav Dev Maurya who runs a regional outfit called Mahan Dal. But this time Keshav Dev has already declared his unconditional support to Mayawati’s BSP.
Akhilesh’s second strategy was to bring veteran Maurya community leader Swami Prasad Maurya into SP, who joined the party just before the 2022 assembly elections. Maurya however created much embarrassment for Akhilesh by making certain controversial remarks about Ramcharitmanas.
Senior journalist Brijesh Shukla said, “Swami Prasad Maurya’s lost his own seat in Kushinagar, his influence is limited. His recent statements concerning the Ramcharitmanas are causing more harm than good for the Samajwadi Party.”
Jat
The SP faces a significant challenge in the Jat-dominated Western UP. It is difficult for SP to perform well independently in the region due to the limited presence of Yadav voters. In the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav played his cards well by aligning with Rashtriya Lok Dal’s (RLD) Jayant Chaudhary, the grandson of Chaudhary Charan Singh, who has been among the tallest Jat leaders from the state.
However, Jat vote dropped from 57% in the 2017 assembly elections to 33% in the 2022 elections after SP’s alliance, according to CSDS post-poll study.
Ram Dutt Tripathi, a former BBC correspondent, says, “2022 election was a significant opportunity for Akhilesh and Jayant to attract the Jat votes, especially given the large-scale farmers’ movement in Western UP and the sympathy factor for Jayant among the Jats due to his father Ajit Singh’s demise. Despite the circumstances, if the Jats did not vote for the SP alliance, it seems very difficult for the Jats to come back to the SP fold.” Meanwhile, speculation is rife that the BJP may succeed in its subtle moves to woo Jayant Chaudhary.
PDA’s ‘D’ stands for Dalit
Coming to the ‘D’ of Akhilesh’s PDA, Uttar Pradesh has 22% Dalit voters. The SP is also focusing on securing their support.
The party’s biggest asset is R.K. Choudhary, a veteran Dalit leader and former associate of BSP founder Kanshiram. He is visiting Dalit-dominated villages to spread the word that SP is the true well-wisher of Dalits. He says, “We are raising concerns related to caste-based reservations, social justice and equality.”
RK Choudhary addressing a gathering in Hardoi. Photo: RK Choudhary
SP witnessed a slight increase in the Dalit vote share in the 2022 assembly elections. The Jatav votes increased by 6%, while non-Jatav votes increased by 12%. However, Akhilesh faces three significant challenges in securing the Dalit vote.
Firstly, the sympathy factor for Mayawati among Jatavs. Ramraj, a grocery store owner in Banda says, “The Jatav community carries a significant sense of remorse and deep concern for Mayawati. In the forthcoming election, even those Jatavs who had previously parted ways with the BSP are returning, while the existing supporters are steadfastly standing alongside Behenji.”
Secondly, the threat SP is facing is BJP’s success at capturing a good chunk of non-Jatav Dalits since the 2014 elections and its bid to increase its vote share among Jatavs as well. Asim Arun former police commissioner of Kanpur and now minister of social welfare in the UP government says, “We are continuously working among the Dalits, and giving them leadership positions in the party. Moreover, our welfare schemes like the free housing scheme, ration and construction of toilets have consolidated their support for BJP.”
Thirdly, there is a longstanding conflict between Jatavs and Yadavs in the villages, which has led to Jatavs not aligning with the SP. However, Chandra Shekhar Choudhary, the state chief of SP’s Ambedkar Vahini argues, “The fight for power is no longer between different factions of PDA but rather against the NDA.”
PDA’s ‘A’ means alpasankhyak (minority)
Coming to alpsankhyaks, Akhilesh Yadav is relying heavily on the support of the minority community which has been a core base of the party ever since its inception. In UP, there are approximately 19% Muslim voters.
According to a post-poll study by Axis My India, 82% of Muslims voted for the SP alliance in the 2022 assembly elections, even surpassing the Muslim vote share the SP-BSP-RLD alliance received in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, this vote bank is now facing threats as the BSP and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) performed well in some places in the recent civic elections held in May this year.
SP spokesperson Abbas Haider asserts, “There is a significant difference between civic elections and Lok Sabha. When there is an election to change the government at the national level, the entire Muslim community will stand unitedly with Akhilesh Yadav.”
Abbas Haider with supporters Photo: Twitter/Abbas Haider
BSP does present a notable challenge to the Muslim vote bank of the SP. Mayawati is trying to regain her Muslim support and has strategically included prominent Muslim leaders like Imran Masood, Guddu Jamali, and Afzal Ansari.
Brijesh Shukla says “New equations are emerging in Western Uttar Pradesh. While the Jatav community is already with Mayawati, a considerable number of Muslim voters, who previously supported the SP, are now shifting their support towards the BSP.”
No doubt, there have been some instances of Muslim disillusionment with Akhilesh Yadav but it is quite evident that the community has very few options other than voting en bloc with SP.
While there appears to be sufficient logic behind Akhilesh’s latest strategy of building a PDA coalition, but a lot has to be done on the ground for it to be successful.
Aman is an independent journalist.
