The current Narendra Modi government is not Narendra Modi’s administration. He is dependent.
In his 2019 term, Modi did not bother to fill the position of the Deputy Speaker for a full five years. Such was his power. Now, without a coalition and without floor coordination with the opposition, the Modi government will struggle to run the administration and proceedings of the Lok Sabha. This was evident in the long gap in the allocation of portfolios among his cabinet. This is perhaps Modi’s first experience with a situation where he is not fully empowered.
Modi has ensured that all prominent portfolios go to his party, showing a rosy picture of things. He is intent upon showing the world that he is the whole and the sole, even now.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Except that everybody is aware of the fractured and legless mandate, but almost seems to be allowing him to enjoy his childish pleasure.
All parties, the NDA’s partners included, are aware of the poaching methods of the Bharatiya Janata Party. In the present given situation, BJP managers are ill-equipped with their tactics to terrify bench mates in the treasury, since the opposition is vehemently strong. The latter’s inter-party cohesion and chemistry is congenial and necessary.
Thus, Modi and his BJP managers, to begin with, have to comprehend the methodology employed by either Atal Bihari Vajpayee or P.V. Narasimha Rao in forging and maintaining a respectable alliance. The United Progressive Alliance’s approach of Dr. Manmohan Singh’s time was not palatable to Modi, since the partners then had a significant say in their priorities. While the Vajpayee Model is pleasant for Modi to deal with, leaders who can be counted upon to maintain cordial ties is something that is missing in the Modi Mandap. An exception is perhaps Rajnath Singh. Troubleshooters and smoothening pads are in scarcity and though Modi’s ministers were in power for decade, none could grow in stature or be allowed to exhibit their persuasive skills.
The chest thumping batch of the BJP have tried to show the cabinet formation and portfolio allocation process as the triumph of Modi. The shouting brigades also tried to articulate that the two bigger partners are not in need of Modi and that the growing strength of BJP is for all to see. But that this is far from the truth is also displayed by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s attitude. How the Modi government will now lead itself in parliament will be interesting to watch.
Absence of commonality
This Modi coalition has to first evolve a common minimum programme. Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar’s praises and promises cannot replace concrete promises as this slippery style is a hallmark of his. Nara Chandra Babu Naidu is a seasoned hand. He was for long in the dark and had been belittled by the Modi team till the results of general elections were out. He is very shrewd and has swallowed most distasteful experiences. Overnight, his star value and convener capacities have come to the fore once again. Naidu will not be a spoiler until he or his Telugu Desam Party are hit.
He now has a resounding mandate from Andhra Pradesh and a reasonable 16-member presence in the Lok Sabha. He was the trouble-shooter for Atal Bihari Vajpayee while at once the person to have had an understanding with Narendra Modi in 2014. Although he had to quit that understanding, he knows that the ruling coalition needs a common minimum programme. Until and unless such a programme is brought and its adherence made the bedrock, there is no smooth sailing for Modi.
Already many speak of differing voices coming out on certain approaches and priorities. There are ideological differences between BJP and its key allies, JD(U) and TDP. This cannot be forgotten.
Special status to partners
For both of them, Nitish and Naidu, the special category status to their states had been on top of their respective agendas. People are already and loudly reminding them of this. During the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh a decade ago, the then prime minister had assured on the floor of Rajya Sabha to accord Special Status to Andhra Pradesh. Now, this demand is again gaining momentum in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh.
The Modi government has to decide on this now. During separation struggle of Telangana and subsequent discussions after the formation of the Modi government in 2014, on the floor of Rajya Sabha, my suggestion was that we have two types of special status categories. One, for the already-assured sensitive border hilly states and another with a strict periodical limit of five years, renewable for five more years to the states which were facing a severe financial crunch. Now the time has come to throw reasonable light on this demand.
The Modi government will struggle to pursue its controversial singular goals – Uniform Civil Code and One Nation, One Election. The demand for a Caste Census will also grow.
This fractured mandate has protected Indian Constitution from uneven tinkering by the Modi government. The first hurdle of the Modi coalition is to find a Speaker and Deputy Speaker. Traditionally, Deputy Speakership is given to the opposition.
Is all well in the ruling coalition? It all depends on whether the BJP minds the gap.
Ananda Bhaskar Rapolu was a Rajya Sabha MP between 2012 and 2018.
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