As Delhi braces for the upcoming assembly elections slated for February 5, the political battlefield is buzzing with anticipation. The ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its chief, Arvind Kejriwal, are locked in a high-stakes contest with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while the Congress struggles to regain relevance in a city it once dominated. Amidst rallies, manifestos, and political maneuvering, one question echoes across the capital: “If not Kejriwal, then who?”
What sets this election apart is the striking absence of clear leadership contenders from the Opposition parties. While Kejriwal’s face is synonymous with the AAP’s governance model, neither the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nor the Congress party has unveiled a chief ministerial candidate to rally behind. This has led to a growing perception among Delhiites that, despite the noise, the Opposition lacks a unifying figure to challenge the incumbent.
For the BJP, the lack of a strong local leadership figure in Delhi has been a persistent issue. Historically, the party has struggled in regions where it failed to project a clear chief ministerial candidate. This pattern has been evident in states like Jharkhand and Karnataka, where the absence of a cohesive leadership figure led to internal conflicts and electoral failures. In Delhi, the BJP’s inability to project a credible local face has repeatedly cost the party dearly in assembly elections.
This time, the BJP appears to be experimenting with a new strategy. Instead of relying on a local leader, the party is leveraging the popularity of Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath, who frequent appearances on Delhi’s campaign trail suggest that the BJP is banking on his pan-Hindu appeal to energise its voter base, especially the Purvanchali voter base. However, this approach comes with its own set of challenges. While Adityanath’s popularity is undeniable, his influence is largely regional, and his connection to Delhi’s local issues remains tenuous at best.
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The BJP’s past attempts to project local leaders as chief ministerial candidates have largely fallen flat. Leaders like Manoj Tiwari and Kiran Bedi, despite their visibility, failed to resonate with Delhi’s electorate. This inability to cultivate and sustain strong local leadership has left the BJP dependent on national leaders and symbolic figures like Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and Adityanath. Whether this gamble will pay off remains to be seen, but it underscores the party’s ongoing struggles to establish a strong local presence in Delhi.
The Congress, once a dominant force in Delhi politics, now finds itself in a state of near-total disarray. The party’s campaign lacks direction, and its leadership appears disconnected from the ground realities of Delhi’s electorate. While Sandeep Dikshit, the son of former Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit, has emerged as a potential leader, his efforts seem isolated and unsupported by the party’s national leadership.
Sandeep Dikshit’s candidacy has sparked a mix of curiosity and skepticism. On the one hand, his connection to Sheila Dikshit’s legacy gives him a degree of credibility and recognition. On the other hand, the Congress’s lack of a cohesive strategy and visible campaign presence raises questions about its seriousness in contesting the elections. Senior leaders like Rahul Gandhi have made only sporadic appearances in Delhi, and their limited involvement has failed to generate the buzz necessary to galvanise the party’s supporters.
Adding to the intrigue is Sandeep Dikshit’s recent praise of BJP leaders, including Parvesh Verma. This unexpected gesture has led to speculation about his motives. Some observers see it as a calculated move to remain relevant in Delhi’s political landscape, while others view it as an attempt to position himself as a unifying figure capable of bridging divides. However, such actions have also fueled doubts about his commitment to the Congress’s cause and his ability to lead the party effectively.
An interesting dimension to Sandeep Dikshit’s emergence as a potential leader is the role of the media. Many reporters who covered Sheila Dikshit during her tenure as chief minister recall her affable nature and her ability to build goodwill with the press. This goodwill appears to be benefiting Sandeep Dikshit, as the media has given him significant coverage despite the Congress’s lackluster campaign.
However, this media-driven narrative has not translated into tangible political momentum. While Sandeep Dikshit has garnered attention, the Congress’s organisational weaknesses and lack of a coherent strategy have prevented him from leveraging this visibility into electoral success. The question remains: Is Sandeep Dikshit a genuine leadership contender, or is he merely a symbolic figure propped up by the media?
In contrast to its rivals, the AAP’s campaign is centered around a clear and recognisable leadership figure in Arvind Kejriwal. As the incumbent chief minister, Kejriwal has built his reputation on a governance model that emphasises education, healthcare, and public services. His visibility and accessibility have made him a familiar and trusted figure among Delhi’s electorate.
The lack of a strong challenger has allowed the AAP to frame the election as a referendum on its governance rather than a contest between competing leadership visions. This dynamic puts the BJP and Congress at a disadvantage, as they struggle to present compelling alternatives to Kejriwal’s leadership.
The BJP also lacks a compelling narrative in this election. While the party has tried to raise the issue of “Sheesh Mahal,” the alleged lavish modifications at the chief minister’s official residence, this narrative does not seem to resonate with voters.
The AAP countered by opening the residence to the public, allowing Delhiites to see it for themselves. However, the Delhi Police, under the Union government’s jurisdiction, later restricted access, which some viewed as an overreach. The BJP’s criticisms regarding “freebies” have also fallen flat, as their manifesto mirrors or extends the AAP’s existing welfare schemes. For instance, while the AAP’s Mahila Samman Yojna promises Rs 2,100 for women, the BJP’s Mahila Samridhi Yojana proposes Rs 2,500. This apparent mimicry has left voters questioning the BJP’s originality and vision.
Juggi (slum) voters remain a loyal base for the AAP, driven by fears that a BJP-led government might lead to the demolition of their homes. This voter segment, crucial in numerous constituencies, has shown strong resistance to the BJP’s overtures. Despite the BJP’s attempts to sway this demographic, the AAP’s targeted outreach has kept its grip firm.
Another significant factor in play is money. In the New Delhi Assembly constituency, BJP candidate Parvesh Verma is alleged to have distributed money openly, according to accounts from local residents. Similar reports have surfaced from other constituencies as well. However, these tactics have done little to shift the narrative around leadership. When asked about the chief ministerial face, people across the city overwhelmingly favour Kejriwal, as no BJP leader matches his popularity.
As Delhi approaches its assembly elections, the absence of strong leadership contenders from the BJP and the Congress has become a defining feature of the political landscape. While the BJP experiments with leveraging Adityanath’s appeal and the Congress grapples with internal disarray, Kejriwal stands as the singularly dominant figure in the race.
For Delhiites, the question of “If not Kejriwal, then who?” remains unanswered. Until the Opposition can present credible and cohesive leadership alternatives, the scales seem firmly tipped in favour of the AAP. This leadership gap not only shapes the current election but also raises broader questions about the future of Opposition politics in Delhi.
Aamir Shakil is a political researcher based in Delhi.
