Darbhanga (Bihar): In the Darbhanga Lok Sabha constituency, called the ‘Heart of Mithila’, and other neighbouring Lok Sabha seats of Jhanjharpur, Madhubani and Samastipur, political pundits known to gauge the mood of voters are confused and unable to predict which way the situation will turn this year.
However, many analysts, who understand the traditional political inclinations of castes and social engineering in politics, pointing to the so-called known tendency of Muslim voters and the widespread division of votes among the Yadavs, claim that the M-Y equation is still a decisive factor in many places but is no longer as effective.
This means that while the BJP has made efforts to hold sway over the upper castes, its grip over the Yadav community is believed to have strengthened. In fact, the BJP has fielded upper caste candidates on 11 of its 17 seats in Bihar, in which Gopalji Thakur (an upper caste member) from Darbhanga and Ashok Yadav from Madhubani are notable names. Meanwhile, the BJP’s ally Janata Dal (United) has fielded Rampreet Mandal from Jhanjharpur and its other ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has fielded Shambhavi Chaudhary, daughter of Ashok Chaudhary, a cabinet minister in the Nitish Kumar government, from Samastipur.
Rampreet Mandal during a roadshow.
It is claimed that the BJP and its allies in Bihar are trying to garner votes of backward and deprived communities along with upper castes and Other Backward Classes (OBC) under a well-thought-out strategy.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
In such a situation, voters of 55 backward and extremely backward castes, called ‘Pachpaniya’, in Bihar, especially in the Mithila region, are expected to play a decisive role. They are also believed to have played an important role in the victory of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the previous election.
Political pundits specialising in these areas, despite being aware of the large-scale division of votes between Muslims, upper castes and to some extent Yadavs, are unable to decipher the silence of the Pachpaniya correctly and believe that the results will depend on their voting behaviour.
However, voters no longer seem as enthusiastic as the previous election. The so-called Modi wave is missing on the surface too. In such a situation, the political meaning of people’s silence still needs to be deciphered.
Jhanjharpur
In Jhanjharpur, there is a strong anti-incumbency wave among people against their current MP and NDA candidate Rampreet Mandal. Locals allege that even though he never showed up in his constituency, he keeps issuing statements like, “When I visit the area, people do not meet me. Everyone is busy grazing buffaloes.”
Meanwhile, some people claimed that no development took place anywhere during his tenure. One such voter, Raja Rehmani from the Pamaria community, said, “We want change, but the contest is triangular and complicated.”
According to him, Suman Kumar Mahaseth of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) – part of the INDIA bloc – will votes from the BJP and JDU cadres as well.
Suman Kumar Mahaseth during a rally.
When asked why, Rehmani says that Mahaseth has switched from ‘there’ to ‘here’, and the people are fed up with the current MP. Meanwhile, in response to a question about Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate Gulab Yadav, who has made the contest triangular, he says, “It would be better if he had been the candidate of the INDIA alliance as he has a strong vote base here, and anything can happen.”
Initially, only the name of Gulab Yadav had surfaced from the INDIA alliance. Political analyst and senior journalist Prashant Kumar Mishra, who keeps a close eye on the politics of the country, especially Bihar, also confirms that there is anti-incumbency against Mandal in Jhanjharpur. “His position as a candidate is weak,” he said.
However, he added that since Mandal is the NDA candidate, he will get votes based on Modi’s popularity.
“Interestingly, INDIA alliance candidate Suman Kumar Mahaseth was once a BJP worker, and he is trying his best to cash in on that fact,” Mishra said. “But there is another angle to it – Gulab Yadav is contesting from the BSP, and he has a fair share of votes.”
“Gulab Yadav has already displayed his political clout by getting his daughter appointed as the district council president and his wife the MLC,” said Mishra.
According to him, the election here is interesting in every way.
When asked about the possibilities, he said, “As far as the question of lead is concerned, there is a strange kind of silence among the voters. So, nothing can be said.”
“Gulab Yadav cannot be taken lightly here,” he added.
Gulab Yadav during a road show.
Senior journalist Aaquil Hussain also underlined the candidature of BJP turncoat Mahaseth on the INDIA ticket and the spectacular victory of JDU’s Rampreet Mandal against RJD in 2019 and said, “The contest seems to be between JDU’s Rampreet Mandal and VIP’s Suman Kumar Mahaseth, but RJD rebel Gulab Yadav can spoil the game for the INDIA alliance.”
Meanwhile, regarding issues at the national and local levels in these four Lok Sabha constituencies, Mishra said, “In all these places, voters do not have much focus on local issues. For instance, there is a major demand in Jhanjharpur that it should be granted the status of a separate district because it is a remote and backward area. But no such local issue has been raised at other places which can affect the voting pattern.”
Syed Hassanul Haque, who has contested the MLA election from Khajoli assembly constituency of Jhanjharpur, agrees. “There has never been any discussion on issues and development here. This area is backward in every respect, be it roads, hospitals or education. In many places, children from the minority community are forced to study Sanskrit and Maithili instead of their own language.”
“As far as Muslims are concerned, they want to save the country and its Constitution. That is why people are looking towards the INDIA alliance with hope, but there are also BSP candidates here. How these two connect with the minority community will decide a lot,” he said.
He also added that the INDIA alliance candidates have an RSS-BJP background so the traditional votes of the BJP and JDU also seem to be going in their favour.
When The Wire tried to seek the opinion of the Mahadalit women, they began talking about the prime minister’s ration scheme. However, when a young man from the Pamaria community present in the crowd spoke about unemployment, they backed his opinion and said that they will cast their votes carefully.
Voting for Jhanjharpur Lok Sabha is slated for May 7, in the third phase.
Darbhanga
Similarly, in Darbhanga Lok Sabha, amidst local reports of widespread anti-incumbency against the current MP and NDA candidate Gopal Jee Thakur, people did not seem very happy with the current MLA and INDIA bloc candidate Lalit Kumar Yadav at many places.
Sheela Devi of the Musahar community in Manigachhi block of the Lok Sabha said, “The elected leaders feel ashamed to come here, but they want votes. They send their men to appease us and once they win, they do not even come to visit us.”
Many people in this community were seen cursing both Modi and Lalu Prasad Yadav, while people of the Muslim community are largely united in favour of the INDIA alliance. However, the question of Muslim leadership is still burning among the youth.
In such a situation, according to Nazar-e-Alam, president of All India Muslim Bedari Karwan, an organisation working on social awareness among Muslims, “The minority community in Bihar, which is claimed to stop the BJP, has not been given representation. Therefore, people are unwilling to vote for the INDIA alliance, especially because they are miffed with the RJD.”
“Whenever an option is offered to the Muslims, they vent their anger. But in most places, they vote out of compulsion,” he said,
“For example, look at Darbhanga. Lalit Kumar Yadav, who is the RJD candidate right now, defeated Ali Ashraf Fatmi and Abdul Bari Siddiqui by going against the party only in order for Muslim candidature to end from the seat,” he added. “He himself is doing politics with the help of Muslim votes. Therefore, it is possible that Muslims may not go with him completely.”
Lalit Kumar Yadav on the campaign trail.
Nazar-e-Alam also pointed to people’s displeasure with the current BJP MP and said, “But people vote in the name of Modi here.”
Discussing this Lok Sabha constituency, journalist Mishra said, “Gopal Jee Thakur is a favourable candidate in Darbhanga, but he has his own political limitations. The AIIMS issue has not been resolved yet. He and his fellow party workers did not display the kind of enthusiasm they ought to have shown over such issues. Lalit Yadav is currently the MLA and the RJD cadre vote is completely with him. Therefore, he is giving a tough fight.”
“Here too the central leadership of the BJP has made inroads which will affect the voting pattern,” he added. “But it is clear that the RJD is much stronger in Darbhanga than Madhubani. A lot of votes will be cast in their favour and a close contest is expected.”
Senior journalist M.A. Sarim also confirmed this in his analysis and said, “The M-Y equation is intact in the Alinagar assembly seat and surrounding areas, and due to the mobilisation of OBC, Dalit and other voters, the average share of their votes in favour of INDIA alliance has increased due to anti-incumbency and other issues.”
“Due to the opposition against the current MP, the percentage of Brahmin votes can also increase here,” he added. “However, it would be hasty to say anything due to the silence of most backward caste and Dalit voters.”
According to him, Modi’s influence on the ground cannot be denied even today.
Voting for Darbhanga Lok Sabha constituency is scheduled on May 13 in the fourth phase.
Gopal Jee Thakur campaigning in Darbhanga.
Madhubani
There is also a lot of anger among people against the current MP and BJP candidate in Madhubani, Ashok Kumar Yadav.
In local news reports, people are often seen complaining that he visits the constituency only during elections. However, it is believed that the road to victory is not too difficult for him.
“Ali Ashraf Fatmi, the RJD candidate in Madhubani, can be considered a favourable candidate, but he hails from Darbhanga and there is not much enthusiasm about him even within the RJD,” Mishra told The Wire.
“However, if we look at it from the perspective of the candidature of BJP’s Ashok Yadav, several problems can be noticed. He bears the legacy of his father (former minister Hukumdev Narayan Yadav), and is not a very popular figure locally. The votes he gets here will be because of the face of PM Modi.”
“In the current situation of Mahagathbandhan, if there was a local candidate instead of Ali Ashraf Fatmi, the situation would have been different.”
Ashok Kumar Yadav campaigning.
Journalist Hussain has a similar opinion. “Madhubani has been the stronghold of the Congress and CPI,” he said. “But now the BJP has been dominating here for a long time. RJD has never been able to register a win here. In such a situation, winning the election from this seat will be a tough nut to crack for Ali Ashraf Fatmi.”
“Yadavs are considered to be the RJD’s primary vote bank but the BJP candidate is also from this community. Therefore, most of the Yadav votes are bound to sway to the BJP, as was seen in the last election as well,” he argued.
Giving another reason, he said, “The people here believe that if the Congress had fielded a candidate for the INDIA alliance, the political scenario would be different.’
Nazar-e-Alam of Bedari Karwan also makes a similar claim. According to him, like Darbhanga, in Madhubani and Jhanjharpur too, people have not seen their MP in a long time. As a result, they are leaning towards Fatmi, but he does not seem to be taking much advantage of it so far. There is also a discussion that the Yadav vote in Madhubani is not going in his favour.
Ali Ashraf Fatmi campaigning.
The Madhubani Lok Sabha election is on May 20, in the fifth phase.
Samastipur
Meanwhile, in his analysis of the political situation in Jhanjharpur and Samastipur, Nazar-e-Alam put the INDIA bloc out of the race.”‘Everyone knows that their candidate in Jhanjharpur is an RSS cadre, so the secular vote is in a dilemma,” he said.
Nazar claimed that the JDU has already won the contest here as the Muslims are tilting towards it because of Nitish Kumar. Although Gulab Yadav is trying to appease Muslims, things do not seem to be going in his favour.
There are other reasons in Samastipur but the fight is easy for the NDA, he added.
According to Mishra’s analysis, the NDA has an edge. “There is a dilemma for Nitish Kumar. Both the candidates are the offspring of two of his ministers, but there is an enthusiasm within the BJP alliance here. There is a different kind of enthusiasm among women and youth, so I feel the NDA’s position is better here. Then Chirag Paswan’s own vote bank is also a factor.”
Shambhavi Chaudhary with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a rally.
Samastipur Lok Sabha election is being considered interesting because the INDIA alliance has fielded Sunny Hazari, son of Maheshwar Hazari, a minister in Nitish Kumar’s cabinet, against Shambhavi Chaudhary, daughter of Bihar government minister Ashok Chaudhary, from the Lok Janshakti Party Ramvilas.
It was claimed that Sunny is already active here and has a presence among the people, while Shambhavi is viewed as an outsider candidate. Due to this, people are also angry with Chirag Paswan.
Speaking to The Wire, elderly voter Sita Ram said, “We believe that Modi is going to return to power. As of now, no one on earth can stop him. He has the blessings of the sants. No matter what any alliance does, no one can defeat him.”
On the other hand, in Jitwarpur of Samastipur, some young and elderly voters claimed, “INDIA alliance is very strong here. No one stands a chance this time. To think that five kg grains will fool the public is mere stupidity.”
“One can clearly see that even the mandir-masjid issue is not working this time,” an elderly voter said. “The voters have made up their minds about what to do.”
“We have seen Prince Raj twice and Ramchandra Paswan before him. No development ever took place. This time Sunny Hazari from Congress is a local. What can be better than that?” another young voter, Mukesh Kumar Yadav, remarked.
“We have not seen the face of our MP till date,” he said. “And another outsider is being imposed on us.”
Mukesh believes that Tejashwi has shown how a government works by giving employment in 17 months and the caste based census in Bihar is his big achievement. He said, “Nobody’s guarantee will work here. Modi offered employment of pakodas while Tejaswi offered real jobs. You can imagine who the youth will drift to.”
Meanwhile, in a conversation with The Wire, RJD MLA from Samastipur Akhtarul Islam Shaheen claimed, “We are going to win not only Samastipur Lok Sabha seat but 35-36 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar.”
He said, “People have seen the result of Modi’s promises in Bihar and at the Centre. Here, in a very short time, they have also seen Tejashwi’s employment model. Today the people of Bihar believe that Modi cannot live up to his promises. That is why people have faith in our limited term government and the work done in it. They are definitely going with our alliance. Now no one is going to fall into Modi’s trap.”
Amidst such claims, Hussain claims that the votes of minorities also matter a lot on this seat. “Only the votes of minorities will decide the victory or defeat here.”
Voting for Samastipur Lok Sabha is on May 13, in the fourth phase.
Have priorities changed?
Apart from this, referring to these four Lok Sabha seats, well-known literary critic Ashutosh Kumar Thakur said, “In the last Lok Sabha elections, the NDA led by BJP and JDU had registered a spectacular victory from these constituencies, and the united strategy of this alliance has strengthened the fort of NDA in Bihar to some extent.”
He claimed that parties like the RJD and Congress are also facing strong opposition in many places, although this alliance is trying to challenge the dominance of the NDA by highlighting issues like unemployment, agricultural crisis and social justice.
“There has definitely been some change in the political scenario since 2019. There are many issues like anti-incumbency wave, unemployment, inflation, public health, transport and farmers’ concerns, which can affect the priorities of the voters,” he added.
“The INDIA alliance may gain some ground here this time, the result will be different from 2019. Whether the results will be in line with the expectations or something unexpected will be seen, a lot will depend on the voter turnout,” he further said.
Overall, The Wire saw a kind of anger among people of almost all communities in these four Lok Sabha constituencies towards their current MPs and in some places, the central leadership. However, it will have to be seen whether this will affect the results.
Translated from Hindi by Naushin Rehman.
