Patna: While it’s hard to discern anything novel or innovative in Narendra Modi’s election rallies, one cannot miss the Prime Minister’s most vigorous endeavour ever to replicate his party’s 2019 performance in Bihar.
He has made two visits to Bihar, delivering speeches at Jamui and Nawada. Scheduled next are rallies in Aurangabad and Gaya on April 16. Adding to the momentum, his Man Friday and Union home minister, Amit Shah, arrived in the state on Wednesday, April 10, and will remain for two days to campaign for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) nominees.
Why so intense an effort? The NDA bagged 39 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats—several of them with comfortable margins—in 2019. With chief minister Nitish Kumar back to its fold and Chirag Paswan with it, the Bharatiya Janata Party has got the same alliance that had given it a stupendous victory in the previous polls. Moreover, the BJP and the Janata Dal (United) have largely retained the victors of 2019 as their candidates for 2024 battles.
On the other hand, the flight of Nitish to NDA pained the Mahagathbandhan, known now as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) that the Bihar CM had anchored. It was tough for the INDIA bloc leaders to put their act together in the wake of Nitish’s somersault. The Congress which has got nine seats in its share is yet to announce its candidates in as many as six seats. It was only on April 10 that the Rashtriya Janata Dal announced its candidates for 23 seats in its share against the BJP and JDU, which have got 17 and 16 seats in their respective shares, doing it over a month ago.
Also read: In Bihar, Narendra Modi Banks on Rhetoric From 2019
“The obvious reason for Modi sweating it out in Bihar more than ever before is the vibrancy, freshness and dynamism that was the hallmark of his campaigns earlier is missing. So is missing the frenzied cheer for him from the audience. He is not speaking on what he has done in the last 10 years and what he is about to do next. His speeches sound repetitive and boring,” senior journalist Kanhaiya Bhelari who heads a Patna based digital portal said.
Observers largely hold the view that the “surgical” strike in Balakot of Pakistan in the wake of the explosive blasts at Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir and Modi’s “ghar me ghus ke marunga” (hitting the enemy in its den)’ chant from the dais created a “wave” in the BJP’s favour in 2019. He is heard repeating the same slogan again in his campaign speeches in Bihar but fails to get the same response.
Moreover, according to the BJP cadres’ own admission the inauguration of the Ram temple at Ayodhya with much fanfare on January 22 has created“goodwill” among the people but is not likely to fetch the desired electoral results for the BJP. Modi attacks the Congress and the RJD for “opposing Rama” which finds few takers.
People attending Ram Temple consecration ceremony in Ayodhya on January 22, 2023. Photo: X (Twitter)/BJP4India.
The Supreme Court’s verdict on the electoral bond scam with several experts describing it as the “biggest ever scam in the history of post-independent in India” coupled with the investigating agencies’ relentless tirade against the Hindutva party’s opponents have decidedly stripped Modi of his corruption-free image. His attack on Lalu Prasad Yadav and Congress for promoting “dynastic politics” too has turned unconvincing with the NDA outnumbering INDIA in fielding the protégées in the fray.
INDIA’s experiments with novelty
Against the NDA’s swiftness of getting Nitish back in its fold and settling the seats sharing issues much in advance, the INDIA bloc parties have struggled hard to put their act together. But the opposition alliance has reworked its strategy, making the electoral pitch quite challenging for the BJP to manoeuvre.
A veteran of many battles, Lalu Prasad Yadav who was in jail during the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2020 assembly elections, got intensely active, indulging in hard bargain with the Congress and picking more candidates from the extremely backward classes (EBCs) and non-Yadav other backward classes (OBCs) to break beyond the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination.
The BJP in company with Nitish had made inroads into the non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs, giving a tough time to the RJD-led alliance in the state ever since the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The RJD, at the cost annoying Nikhil Kumar, son of former CM Satyendra Narayan Sinha at his family bastion of Aurangabad, got the seat in his share and has fielded a Koiri (Kushwaha) candidate against Sushil Singh, the BJP’s candidate belonging to the upper caste Rajput community.
Also read: New Seat Sharing Deals Drive the INDIA Bloc Ahead in the War of Perceptions
The RJD has fielded a Kushwaha candidate, ceding its practice to field a Yadav candidate in the neighbouring Nawada constituency, giving a tough time to the BJP’s upper caste Bhumihar incumbent on the seat. The RJD has, for the first time, fielded a Kurmi candidate against the senior JDU leader Lallan Singh in Munger. In all total, the RJD has fielded as many as 10 non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs out-numbering Nitish’s JDU and in the process putting in place the effective game-plan to impregnate into CM’s hold over the non-Yadav caste-groups.
Another novelty for INDIA is aligning with the CPI-ML-Liberation-the primary Left party in the state—which was not part of the Mahagathbandhan till the 2019 elections. The one reason that was attributed to the RJD emerging as the single largest party in the 2020 assembly polls was its alliance with the CPI-ML-Liberation with a solid cadre base in certain pockets of central Bihar, Magadh region and north Bihar. The CPI ML-Liberation has got three seats—Karakat, Arra and Nalanda– in its share against the CPI and CPM’s one seat each.
The RJD in a bid to increase its outreach more among the EBCs has aligned with the Vikash-sheel Insan Party (VIP) of Mukesh Sahni, leader of the Mallah-Nishad caste and has given him three seats—Jhanjharpur, Motihari and Gopalganj—from its own share.
But the biggest strength of the INDIA alliance in the state is the emergence of Tejaswhi Yadav as its main campaigner against Narendra Modi. By handing out about 4.5 lakh jobs to the youths during his tenure as the deputy CM, Tejaswhi has created hope among the youths believed to be the most dissatisfied lot against Modi. The enthusiasm of the youths is palpable at Tejaswhi’s election rallies against Modi’s lacklustre ones.
Tejashwi Yadav at a rally in Gopalganj. Photo: Nalin Verma.
Chink in INDIA
Despite all these new experiments and novelties, the INDIA bloc has its share of troubles. For example, it couldn’t accommodate the powerful leader of Punia, Pappu Yadav who has thrown his hat in the ring of the Purnia fray, creating troubles for the RJD’s Bima Bharti. If Pappu fails to win, he might cut into the Yadav-Muslim votes, helping the NDA’s nominee, Santosh Kushwaha. And if he wins, he—as hurt he is—will be free to chose from the options between the INDIA and the NDA.
Similarly, the RJD has denied the claim of the CPI-ML-Liberation on the Siwan seat and has kept it for itself. But the party is yet to decide on its candidate with Heena Sahab, widow of former Siwan MP, late Shabuddin, turning rebellious against it. The scenario of Siwan was different as long as Shahbuddin was alive. Heena has repeatedly lost this seat to the NDA since 2014. Even if the RJD placates her and gives her ticket, she might prove to be a weaker candidate in the changed equations in Siwan.
At this stage, it is hard to predict the eventual winner but only a miracle can assure the BJP of its 2019 performance. The PM’s hyper-activeness, apparently, indicates an extremely tough fight between INDIA and NDA in Bihar.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author, media educator and independent researcher in folklore.
