Kusum Arora 
Jalandhar: From the ruling Aam Admi Party’s (AAP) fallen graph to the rise of two independents or pro-Khalistan leaders, the decimation of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and an impressive victory of main opposition Congress, Punjab sprung many surprises in the Lok Sabha election 2024 results declared on June 4.
Punjab had surprised the nation in the 2014 parliamentary elections too, when despite a clear Modi wave in the country, it had elected four MPs of AAP. If the verdict shocked the rivals, it shocked the AAP leadership too.
This time, AAP registered a win in only three seats – Sangrur, the home turf of Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann, Hoshiarpur (reserve), and Anandpur Sahib parliamentary constituencies. In Punjab, AAP and rival Congress contested elections separately whereas in other states, they fought under the India alliance.
While sitting MLA Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer won from Sangrur seat by 1,72,560 votes defeating Sukhpal Khaira of Congress, Raj Kumar Chabbewal won by 44,111 votes. AAP candidate Malvinder Singh Kang polled 10,846 votes in the Anandpur Sahib seat. An ex-Congress MLA, for AAP Chabbewal’s victory was big, as he is a prominent and strong face of Dalit politics in the Doaba region.
Interestingly, AAP’s decline in Punjab came in the wake of three developments – the ongoing farmers’ protest at the Shambu border, the declining popularity of the Punjab government owing to deteriorating law and order, unfulfilled promises like justice in sacrilege cases and drugs issue, and the arrest of AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal in the liquor case.
Although AAP’s vote share increased to 26.05% as compared to 7.5% in 2019 in Punjab, the party’s dismal performance was likely to cast its shadow on its political fortune, as it was struggling to find a base in any other state other than in the country for the last 10 years.
SAD’s lone winner, BJP decimated
Not just AAP, even SAD’s vote share has also reduced to 13.43%, as compared to the BJP, which despite not winning any seat in Punjab gained around 18.55% vote share.
SAD’s Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the wife of party president Sukhbir Singh Badal, became the only MP to represent Akali leadership in the parliament. Harsimrat Kaur won by 3,76,558 votes defeating her nearest rival AAP’s Gurmeet Singh Khudian.
On the other hand, BJP’s popularity has been on the decline ever since the farmers’ protest against the now repealed farm laws came in the year 2020.
It was following the farm protests that the SAD had parted ways with the BJP, leading to severe political losses for both. However, before the BJP and its old alliance partner since 1996, the SAD could stitch an alliance, farmers protest 2.0 or ‘Delhi Morcha’ started, putting a full stop to the political aspirations of not just the Akalis but the BJP too.
The BJP’s Punjab campaign faced stiff opposition from the farmer unions across Punjab, primarily in the Majha and the Malwa belt, as their long pending demands of MSP guarantee law, justice in Lakhimpur Kheri, lack of timely action by Punjab’s AAP government against Haryana’s BJP government in the killing of Shubh Karan Singh and stopping farmers from going to Delhi were not addressed.
As if that was not enough, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election rallies in Patiala, Gurdaspur, Jalandhar and Hoshiarpur parliamentary seats, farmers were stopped, detained, and arrested from reaching the PM’s venue for talks.
It is pertinent to mention here that the farmer unions – Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha at the Shambu border had announced the ‘vote se chot’ slogan while many villages had banned the entry of BJP leaders in their villages.
Commenting on the results, Tejveer Singh Ambala, the spokesperson of BKU Shaheed Bhagat Singh said, “BJP faced losses in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and many other states. The way Ajay Mishra Teni lost from Lakhimpur Kheri; it is a big win for farmers. However, whoever comes to power, whether NDA or the India alliance, our protest will continue till our demands are not met.”
Congress sweeps seven seats; ex-CM Channi emerges as ‘Dalit leader’ of Doaba:
AAP’s main rival, Congress emerged victorious in Punjab by winning seven out of the total 13 Lok Sabha constituencies. The Congress won in Jalandhar (reserve), Amritsar, Fatehgarh Sahib (reserve), Ferozepur, Gurdaspur, Ludhiana and Patiala parliamentary seats.
Among all the victories, a high stakes contest was witnessed at the Jalandhar (reserve) parliamentary constituency from where former chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi won with an impressive margin of 1,75,993 votes. Channi gained 3,90,053 votes defeating BJP’s Sushil Kumar Rinku, who got 21,4060 votes.
A Congress stronghold, AAP’s Sushil Kumar Rinku had won the ‘Dalit heartland’, Jalandhar in the 2023 bypoll after the death of Santokh Singh Chaudhary. Rinku, an ex-Congress MLA had swept the bypoll defeating Karamjit Kaur Chaudhary, the wife of Santokh Singh Chaudhary.
With over 40% Dalit population, the highest in the country, Jalandhar, a safe bet of Congress was a big loss for the party. It was for this reason that the party banked on Charanjit Singh Channi, on whose support the Congress had managed to win five out of the nine assembly constituencies of Jalandhar in the 2022 elections.
Another important factor was Channi’s proximity with Jalandhar’s revered Dera Sachkhand Ballan, a Dalit dera of Guru Ravidas. Channi made it a point to frequently visit the Dera, sending a strong message that he was committed to the Dalits in Doaba.
Talking to The Wire, a dera Sachkhand Ballan member had shared how AAP Punjab failed to spend a single penny out of Rs 25 crore promised for Sri Guru Ravidas Bani Research Centre at the dera.
“Whether it was AAP or BJP, everybody ditched us. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised us Rs 50 crore for a corridor project and a five-acre plot for developmental project, when he had visited Seer Govardhan Dham during Ravidas Jayanti. While PM Modi promised Rs 50 crore, he gave us just Rs 3 crore and in the name of plot, we were given a three-acre plot. The dera authorities were miffed at this response, as it failed to fulfill the requirements of the public. The AAP and BJP were also responsible for razing Guru Ravidas temple at Tughlaqabad, Delhi. The Dalits kept silent but were hurt at these incidents.”
In Channi’s victory, the Congress has found a strong Dalit face and the Dalits, a strong leader. “As Channi was Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s choice, he was likely to get a major push at the national level politics too. Channi had already announced that after winning, Jalandhar would become the ‘political capital’ of Punjab. He had said that decisions would be made here,”said Jaspal Kainth, an independent journalist working on Dalit politics from Jalandhar.
Punjab elects two independents or pro-khalistani leaders:
Amritpal Singh, the pro-Khalistan leader and the chief of ‘Waris Punjab De’ created a stir in Punjab by winning his maiden parliamentary poll from Khadoor Sahib with the biggest lead of 1,78,022 votes.
A panthic (related to Sikh religious affairs) constituency, Khadoor Sahib was known for its rich Sikh history and remains the epicentre of militancy in Punjab during the 1990s. Amritpal’s victory was imminent for the fact that he had already struck a chord with locals for his anti-drug crusade.
While across national or Godi media, Amritpal was termed as a militant and a Khalistani, back home in his native village Jallupur Khera, people hailed him as a hero for saving Punjab’s youth. “We want to bring him back, as he was saving our sons,” a group of women had said.
Apart from Amritpal, another surprise win was that of independent candidate Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa from Faridkot Lok Sabha constituency, who won by 70,053 votes defeating AAP’s Karamjit Singh Anmol. Sarabjeet Singh is the son of former prime minister Indira Gandhi’s assassin Beant Singh.
During his election campaign, Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa raised the issue of sacrilege cases of 2015, Bandi Singhs and other panthic issues and how his father Beant Singh had attacked Indira Gandhi to avenge the attack on Akal Takth in 1984.
It is pertinent to mention here that Sarabjeet’s mother Bimal Kaur Khalsa had also contested the Lok Sabha polls from Ropar parliamentary seat in 1989, when SAD (Amritsar) leader Simranjit Singh Mann had won from Tarn Taran Lok Sabha seat. Sarabjeet’s grandfather Sucha Singh had also won from Bathinda parliamentary seat on SAD (Amritsar) ticket in 1989.
‘Referendum on AAP’s two-year performance’
Talking to The Wire, Chandigarh-based political commentator Khalid Mohammad said that the Punjab Lok Sabha results were a referendum on AAP’s two-year performance.
“AAP was under the impression that they would get a sympathy vote from Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest and further release. However, that failed to yield any result. Given AAP’s massive mandate of 92 seats in a 117-member house in Punjab Vidhan Sabha, winning just three seats in parliamentary polls was a big loss for the ruling AAP. While AAP, SAD, BJP were on the decline, Congress maintained its robust vote share”, he said.
On Amritpal’s Khadoor Sahib win, Khalid Mohammad said that he emerged as a phenomenon of radicalism in Punjab. “Whether it is Amritpal or Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa, people in Punjab like those leaders who have the guts to challenge ‘Delhi’. The anti-Delhi phenomenon has always remained in Punjab. It is a factor which cannot be ignored”, he added.
The political commentator also said that in Punjab, barring AAP’s Raj Kumar Chabbewal, voters taught a lesson to the turncoats too. “People were in no mood to take the turncoats lightly. At the same time after ex-CM Channi’s win, Congress has gained big – one they have got a new leader in Doaba and second the control of old war horses like the Chaudhary and Kaypee families over Doaba’s Dalit politics was also over. Congress has started a new chapter in Doaba and Dalits rallied behind it,” he shared.