The recent meeting of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc took place amid growing concerns over economic distress, inflation, unemployment and turmoil in the education sector, and at a moment of mounting uncertainty for India’s opposition. Several constituent parties have suffered electoral setbacks, while institutional bias, electoral manipulation, and the large-scale deletion of voters through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR)  process have accelerated democratic backsliding, moving the polity closer to an electoral autocracy.

Questions have also been raised over the use of investigative agencies against opposition leaders, gubernatorial interventions in opposition-ruled states, the perceived partisanship of the Speaker and the continuing absence of a Deputy Speaker in the Lok Sabha. Yet these very developments have reinforced the importance of the INDIA bloc in challenging the Bhartiya Janata Party’s (BJP) dominance.

Two years ago, Indian voters delivered a verdict that showed the BJP was not unbeatable. Although the party returned to office, it fell short of securing a majority on its own. With 234 seats, the INDIA bloc demonstrated that the ruling party’s aura of invulnerability could be pierced. Instead of building on that achievement, the opposition allowed the momentum to dissipate. Unity remained largely confined to parliament and failed to translate into durable state-level adjustments. This became evident in Maharashtra, where tensions emerged within the Maha Vikas Aghadi, in Haryana and Bihar, where the opposition failed to capitalise on anti-incumbency, and in West Bengal, where antagonism between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) prevented broader coordination. The consequences were reflected in defeats suffered by the opposition in Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar and West Bengal.

These tensions have increasingly spilled over into the alliance itself. The latest meeting of the INDIA bloc was held against the backdrop of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (DMK) exit from the alliance. Widely seen as the bloc’s strongest southern pillar, the DMK stayed away following a bitter split after the Tamil Nadu asembly elections, where the Congress abandoned its decades-long alliance with the party to join a coalition government led by actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

Compounding these difficulties, another major constituent is grappling with its own uncertainties. The TMC, one of the bloc’s largest partners, is facing severe internal challenges following its devastating rout in Bengal. The mass defection of MPs and MLAs not only threatens a formal split within the party but also severely weakens the opposition while directly expanding the BJP’s electoral machine.

Breaking TMC is part of a larger game plan of the ruling dispensation, which is keen on securing the parliamentary numbers necessary to revive contentious plans for delimitation and a substantial expansion of the Lok Sabha. Such changes are likely to increase the representation of northern states, while many southern states fear a reduction in their relative weight. A larger Lok Sabha could further entrench the BJP’s advantages and advance its quest for a permanent majority.

This objective has gone hand in hand with its sustained efforts to destabilise the Congress and discredit the leader of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi. But diminishing the Congress by itself was never enough. It has extended its attention to regional parties, seeking to emasculate them in pursuit of an opposition-free India. However, most of them operated on the assumption that they could individually confront the BJP in their respective states while maintaining a studied distance from the Congress.

Mamata Banerjee opposed the proposal to appoint Nitish Kumar as convenor of the INDIA bloc and resisted closer accommodation with the Congress. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), meanwhile, often appeared more interested in supplanting the Congress than in confronting the BJP.

A broader structural shift in Indian politics

The travails of these leaders point to a broader structural shift in Indian politics: the decline of regional parties, which had been a defining feature of the party system for much of the past three decades. They flourished during the Mandal and coalition era, when politics revolved around caste coalitions, state politics and power-sharing arrangements. During this period (1989-2014), regional parties functioned as important veto players at the Centre.

Under prime minister Narendra Modi, the BJP has reversed this trend by recentralising politics. The nationalisation of elections and the emergence of a pan-Hindu political identity have reduced the leverage that regional leaders enjoyed during the coalition era. Many of them remain centred around elections and charismatic leaders. None of them espouse a clearly defined ideology, nor have they actively engaged in public protests against the regime. Their engagement has largely been confined to electoral politics and, consequently, they have found it difficult to sustain mobilisation outside election cycles.

With the exception of the Left, most state-based formations have underestimated the depth of the structural changes wrought by the Hindu right’s majoritarian agenda and the dangers it poses to democracy, pluralism and dissent. The changing political landscape has laid bare the limits of such complacency. Yet, they remain reluctant to accept the Congress as the principal axis of opposition politics. Despite its organisational weaknesses and internal contradictions, no other party possesses the parliamentary strength, geographical reach and historical legacy necessary to mount a credible national challenge to the BJP.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to Uttar Pradesh, the DMK to Tamil Nadu, the TMC to West Bengal, and the AAP to Delhi and Punjab. By contrast, the Congress, though diminished, retains a broader support base than any other opposition formation.

This advantage has increasingly been accompanied by an effort to articulate an ideological alternative to the Hindu right. What has sharpened that effort is Rahul Gandhi's sustained focus and determination to confront the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and Hindutva, which together have emerged as the dominant narrative in the country. The Bharat Jodo Yatra recast his public image and enabled the Congress to foreground themes of constitutionalism, social justice and economic inequality.

Since then, Gandhi has maintained continuous public engagement, meeting workers, students, farmers, professionals and marginalised groups. Congress affiliates and frontal organisations have mobilised several protests around issues ranging from the NEET paper leak to unemployment and assaults on constitutional institutions.

The importance of Rahul Gandhi's speech

Anti-regime grievances have created both the moment and the framework for the convergence of opposition voices challenging it’s ideological project across nearly every sphere of public life. Against this backdrop, Rahul Gandhi’s speech at the INDIA bloc meeting reflected an awareness of the significance of the present conjuncture. He sought to project the Congress not merely as an electoral contender but as a vehicle of resistance committed to protecting the idea that all Indians are equal.

The challenge before the alliance, therefore, extends beyond elections. It entails confronting both the government and the institutional capture that has produced an increasingly uneven playing field. This has made it progressively more difficult for the opposition to compete on equal terms.

By agreeing to meet every two months and coordinate daily in parliament, the INDIA bloc signalled its resolve to challenge the BJP on governance failures, particularly in the economy and education, while sustaining an institutional framework for opposition unity. But organisational cohesion and periodic bloc meetings are insufficient in the absence of a broader ideological transformation within the opposition. Whether this twin transformation will materialise and be translated into sustained political action remains an open question.

Nevertheless, despite enduring mistrust and periodic disagreements, opposition parties appear to share a broad consensus on two overriding imperatives: that checking the BJP’s dominance is vital both to their own survival and to the future of Indian democracy, and that the Congress party, for all its limitations, remains the principal axis around which any credible national alternative is likely to be constructed. The central question confronting the INDIA bloc is not whether differences among its constituents can be eliminated, but whether they can be managed in pursuit of a common political project.

Zoya Hasan is Professor Emerita, Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

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