P. Raman 
The most striking aspect of the 18th general election has been the absence of a Balakot-like nationwide frenzy that had dominated the 2019 polls. Also missing is the ‘56-inch’ halo that inspired millions of aspiring youths and made Narendra Modi a hero of the middle classes.
The wave had swept the entire Hindi belt and reached east, west and south and enabled the Bharatiya Janata Party to wrest all the seats in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana, 25 out of 28 in Karnataka, 28 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, 9 out of 11 in Chhattisgarh and 11 out 14 seats in Jharkhand. Even in West Bengal, the party managed to get 18 seats.
Remember, Modi has never won a waveless, normal election. Issues like the Citizenship (Amendment) Act rules and the Katchatheevu Island were raked up this time, but failed to spark a jingoistic fervour.
The ruling party’s big two had early on employed the tried-and-tested empty rhetoric, but these appeared not to work on the jobless millions whose everyday problems are returning to haunt them. Field reports say that whenever Opposition leaders talked of jobs and of scrapping the Agniveer scheme, the crowds at their rallies responded with wild applause.
This, perhaps, explains the absence of prices, employment and economic issues from Modi’s campaign speeches this year. The youth, whom he once called the demographic dividend, loiter in the lanes and bylanes without work. An estimated 45.4% of youths between 20 and 24 are jobless. And everyone cannot sell pakoras.
Another first in the 18th general election has been Nirvachan Sadan (Election Commission)’s selective maun (silence) on the model code violations and widespread fears about the possible manipulation of the voting machines. The results on June 4 will tell us how the EVMs behave.
The ruling party continued to violate the model code and spewed hate throughout the campaign, including in the last phase. Sample these reports:
- Modi sees a conspiracy in Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik’s illness
- Naveen’s retort: “I am in the pink of health, Mr. PM.”
- Akhilesh made Ramzan power-cut-free, but not Janmashtami: Amit Shah
- Nobody knew Mahatma Gandhi before Attenborough made the film, says Modi
This time, the ruling party went to the polls with Ayodhya as the main campaign plank. Modi had himself performed as chief priest at the consecration ceremony, for which the whole government machinery was mobilised. Indian Air Force planes showered flower petals on the temple. The media made it a major event. Vishwa Hindu Parishad workers took the Ayodhya message to every village in the country — including the deep south and the northeast.
Yet, the Ram temple appeared not to resonate as an election issue with the voters.
The BJP had also put much store by the election-eve exodus from the Opposition, chiefly the Congress. The shadow of the Enforcement Directorate hung over the desertions that continued for weeks and drew wide publicity.
The party’s famed booth management network, flush with funds, seems to have worked well in most places.
Another factor that had prompted the BJP to launch the poll campaign with the claim of ‘400 par’ was the initial disarray in the Opposition. Seat adjustments had failed in West Bengal, Punjab and Kerala. In Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, there were hiccups. But as the campaign progressed, the Opposition leaders were surprised to find a new synergy among the crowds. In some places, cheering workers surged ahead towards the stage to meet the leaders. Results will show whether this indicates a real mood change.
For the BJP, after the first phase of polling, its leaders realised that things were not going according to plan. The solution: a hate campaign and hard Hindutva. A selective slowdown was seen on the dynasty jibe because it was found that every time Modi and his aides ridiculed ‘one’ family’s interests, BJP allies everywhere squirmed.
Each of the BJP’s electoral allies in the states is a one-leader party with multiple members controlling the family ‘property’. Take the Telugu Desam Party, where N. Chandrababu Naidu’s son is in line for leadership. Naidu himself is the son-in-law of the founder NTR. In Karnataka, where Modi addressed over a dozen election rallies and road shows, the Deve Gowda family has monopolised three Lok Sabha constituencies, a Rajya Sabha seat and zila parishad. Rape accused Prajwal Revanna is among the contestants.
YSR Congress, the other party that has always voted with the BJP in Parliament, traces its dynastic origin to former chief minister Y.S. Rajashekhar Reddy. In Maharashtra, both BJP allies have multiple family members in the field. The party’s Haryana coalition has been sustained by family parties and independents.
For decades, the BJP had aligned with the Badal family in Punjab and with several family-controlled one-leader crutches in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. When Modi derides Abhishek Banerjee as a dynast, it equally hurts the state BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari whose father Sisir Adhikari was a minister under Manmohan Singh.
During the thick of the campaign, the BJP encountered resistance from allies to its minority-bashing. Modi’s assertion that ‘so long as he was alive,’ he would not allow religious reservation was strongly resented by the TDP. Naidu reasserted his decision to restore 4% reservation to Muslims. There was also backlash from Punjab to his comments about Muslims.
Whatever the final outcome, politics after June 4 will not be the same again. Even in the most unlikely event of Modi returning with ‘400 par’, he will have to look for new strategies and a revised policy framework to survive in power. This has been the case with all those who have managed to retain power for longer periods.
In Modi’s case the ghosts of worn-out welfare schemes, broken promises and dissatisfied ‘labharthis’ could come to haunt the regime in the coming days. He has already overused the policy of hate mongering, majoritarian vote bank and misuse of enforcement agencies to harass and jail political adversaries.
In such situations, the urge for power can prompt elected dictators to look for harsher options like tinkering with the Constitution and concentration of powers in the executive. The Modi regime had begun the process even before the elections. The Ram Nath Kovind panel has already recommended simultaneous polls, which will invariably overshadow the interests and functioning of the state assemblies.
Opposition parties have resented tagging the assembly polls with that of the Lok Sabha. The resistance was so strong during the election campaign that the prime minister was forced to disown any plans for drastic changes to the Constitution. But such casual denials do not mean much in realpolitik.
Tinkering with the Constitution was first propounded by the chairman of the PM’s economic advisory council, Bibek Debroy. He got prompt support from cheer leaders like Anant Hegde and BJP’s Ayodhya candidate Lallu Singh. The Opposition has condemned such a drive.
However, the biggest hurdle in the way of the Modi project for a one-party, one-leader regime is the country’s inbuilt diversity. Its regional, cultural, linguistic and aspirational identities act as a barrier to a one-size-fits-all system. In recent years, the imposition of Hindi on regional languages has encountered strong protests in the south. Over the decades, the states south of the Vindhyas have recorded a better economic performance with higher human development indicators. Wide disparities exist in the revenue created by the developed states, including the southern states, and those of the Hindi hinterland. The southern states have complained about unfair tax devolution by the Centre. Such latent sentiments are bound to acquire political dimensions if the present federal arrangement is disturbed by over-centralisation of political power.
For the Opposition, a humongous task awaits them in the event that they win power. To form a coalition at the centre is a big challenge. When that happens, the new government’s first task will be to dismantle the authoritarian structure built over the years. This includes clearing the cobwebs, including the extensive saffronisation.
P. Raman is a veteran journalist.