If the parliamentary election five months ago clearly indicated Narendra Modi’s falling popularity, the assembly election in Haryana is sending out an alarming message to the Bharatiya Janata Party. The message, loud and clear, is that Modi has completely lost the capacity to turn the electoral tide on the strength of his personal charisma.
The message, in fact, is far more disconcerting because Modi’s diminishing stature as the supreme leader of India is writ large on the political canvas of Haryana in the form of poor public response, absence of stimulating ideas and tactical infirmities.
While his two public meetings in the state have so far been disastrous in terms of crowds, his speeches demonstrated a shocking disconnect with the ground reality.
Addressing a rally in Sonipat’s Gohana, the prime minister talked of his meeting in the United States with corporate giants and claimed that they are eager to invest in India. He said several industrial towns were coming up in Haryana and the state at this critical juncture must have a government that promotes industrialisation and keeps job creation as its top priority. Modi ended up touching a raw nerve because Haryana is grappling with the highest unemployment rate and the BJP gave a government for two terms whose chief minister had to be hidden to escape people’s wrath.
Modi’s ten years offered not even one labour-intensive industry that can employ thousands of people. Ironically, his tenure is known for selling national assets, taking imports from China to an unprecedented high.
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Modi, who tried to mislead the voters by harping on bhains and mangalsutra in the parliamentary election, apart from creating communal tension by his subtle and crude insinuations against Muslims, spoke on the critical crisis of jobs this time.
He even argued that industries were needed to supplement agriculture income, as if the double-engine government achieved any significant success in this direction over the last decade. He quoted B.R. Ambedkar to buttress his argument that industrialisation would uplift Dalits. One of the main complaints against the Modi government is that it circumvented caste-based reservations by resorting to reckless privatisation, not filling vacancies and later entries.
Above all, it created an opportunity for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi to launch into a lethal attack on the question of unemployment. Gandhi, meanwhile, exploited the emotions of the people of Haryana by narrating the tragic details of young boys who illegally reached the United States through “dunki” routes and laid the entire blame at the BJP’s doors, declaring that the double-engine government had destroyed the state’s capacity to give jobs. Gandhi also referred to the flawed Agniveer scheme that has angered Haryana, a state which which sends maximum number of youths into the Indian Army along with Punjab. Modi’s fantasies on new employment opportunities looked like a crude joke against this grim backdrop.
Modi’s lack of confidence was also advertised by his stubborn refusal to talk about “Modi ki guarantee”. Instead of making boastful claims about his own work, he chose to rely on the internal squabbles of the Congress. He said, “Galti se bhi Congress aa gayi, toh apne jhagdon mein hi Haryana ko bardbad karke chhodegi (if the Congress comes even by mistake, it will ruin Haryana with its internal rifts).”
It was manifestly clear that Modi has factored in the distinct possibility of Congress’s return to power and that could be one reason for his lacklustre performance. Modi must have received feedback from the ground that people were extremely angry with the state government, leading to the removal of the chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar. But Modi has deftly handled similar situations in the past, steering the party to victory after removing the Chief Minister just before the elections in states like Gujarat and Uttarakhand. But those were the days when elections were fought on “Modi ki guarantee”. This strategy floundered in Karnataka but the unexpected victories in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh created in him a false sense of belief in his own deathless charisma. The Lok Sabha results should have finally busted the myth but he refused to correctly read the message. He persisted with his egocentric approach, refusing to remodel his politics to collectivism.
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Since his anointment as the chief minister of Gujarat in 2002, Modi hasn’t faced strong political opposition or internal dissent. His bulldozer ran without an obstacle. But he did not realise that the political climate changed dramatically after his reduced strength in the Lok Sabha election, triggering even internal churning within the Sangh Parivar. A section of BJP was always uncomfortable with Modi-Shah duopoly and that sentiment reached the boiling point after the electoral setback. After the defeat in Haryana, and most probably in Maharashtra in a few weeks, both the RSS and the BJP will be itching to close this chapter of Gujarati dominance.
Some reports suggest the RSS has already made up its mind to rein in Modi, which in turn will emasculate Shah, and indicated its desire for the change of guard. There is fierce speculation about the RSS advocating Sanjay Joshi as the next BJP president. Modi has nurtured personal enmity with Joshi and even a discussion on his name means bad omen for the Prime Minister. Insiders believe the RSS was hell-bent on appointing a strong leader as the next BJP chief who will not be a puppet like JP Nadda. They want an independent BJP president who can free the organisation from the Modi-Shah shackles.
Elections in Haryana and Maharashtra are crucial for this plan to fructify. Modi-Shah may be able to extend their political lifeline by winning either of the two states. But now, that looks like an uphill task. If the BJP loses both the states, 2025 is going to be the year of overhaul for the BJP. After all, the RSS knows Modi cannot be the future. The results in the ongoing elections will make that secret public.
Sanjay K. Jha is a political commentator.
