Will the AAP Hold Jalandhar, or Will the Congress Wrest Its Old Bastion Back?

Jalandhar: Amidst a high-stakes contest in the Jalandhar Lok Sabha constituency scheduled for June 1, a key question dominating the political landscape in the state’s Dalit heartland is this: will the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) manage to repeat its win, or will the Congress will wrest back control over its former bastion?

Jalandhar, reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates, is witnessing a five-cornered contest between the AAP, Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

It is also for the first time that the SAD and the BJP, who are former alliance partners, are contesting the parliamentary polls on their own. They parted ways following the previous farmers’ protest in 2020.

Traditionally a Congress stronghold, the party won this seat consecutively and comfortably starting in 1999. But it faced a major setback in 2023 when the AAP’s Sushil Kumar Rinku defeated former Jalandhar MP Santokh Singh Chaudhary’s wife, Karamjit Kaur Chaudhary, in a bypoll triggered by Santokh Chaudhary’s death.

While Rinku got 3,02,279 votes, Karamjit Kaur won 2,43,588 votes.

With a Dalit vote higher than 40% – the highest in the country – at stake is the Congress’s Dalit bastion and ex-CM Charanjit Singh Channi’s image, which was dented after he lost from his home turf, the Chamkaur Sahib assembly seat, as well as from the Bhadaur seat.

For the ruling AAP led by CM Bhagwant Mann, it was a battle of proving its mettle in the Congress stronghold. Rinku was the AAP’s lone MP in parliament, making its Jalandhar victory even more significant.

Interestingly, this time, the AAP roped in a strong Dalit face from the SAD, Pawan Kumar Tinu, while Rinku changed the political scene by shifting base to the BJP.

The SAD, on the other hand, is fielding former Congress leader and ex-Jalandhar MP Mohinder Singh Kaypee.

The Congress is fielding Channi.

The Jalandhar parliamentary seat has nine assembly constituencies – Jalandhar Central, Jalandhar Cantt, Jalandhar North, Jalandhar West, Adampur, Kartarpur, Nakodar, Shahkot and Phillaur.

Of these, the Congress won five assembly seats while the AAP clinched four in the 2022 assembly polls.

Across Punjab, the Doaba was the only region where the AAP faced a neck-to-neck fight. Though it came to power with 92 MLAs, making inroads in Dalit-dominated constituencies remained a challenge for the party.

Also read: As Prime Minister Modi Seeks Votes In Punjab, Farmers Face Raids, House Arrests and Detentions

Dalit scholar says BSP a potent factor that will decide the poll outcome

Speaking to The Wire, former professor G.C. Koul, an expert on Dalit issues, said that although the BSP has not won a single election in Jalandhar in the past, its vote share has improved over the years after the party fielded young candidate advocate Balwinder Kumar from here.

“If the BSP gains more votes, this will directly affect the Congress. However, if the BSP’s vote percentage reduces, it will increase the vote Congress’s vote share and hence its victory margin. In the 2023 bypoll, the BSP was a big factor why the AAP won and the Congress lost in its stronghold,” Kumar said.

He added that though “most educated and working-class Dalits are likely to move towards the Congress” in this election, the BSP’s role cannot be ruled out.

Notably, in the 2014 polls, the BSP’s vote share in Jalandhar was a mere 4.51%, but this rose to 20.1% in the 2019 polls when the party fielded Balwinder Kumar.

In the 2023 bypoll, the SAD-BSP alliance fielded a joint candidate, who scored 17.85% of the vote share.

Koul said another crucial factor was that the BSP was aggressive against the Congress and the AAP, but was not dealing the BJP with the same yardstick.

“Jalandhar has 16,54,005 voters. Whoever gets around 2.5 to three lakh votes in the polls will win the election,” Koul added.

On Channi’s election campaign, he said that a majority of Dalits feel empowered and proud that a Dalit was finally made Punjab CM.

“Channi’s loss in the 2022 assembly polls is a separate story. Dalits were talking about his three-month tenure as CM and were attending his rallies in a big number. Largely, Dalits are likely to consolidate in Channi’s favour. His candidature might have given a push to the party, but it is a litmus test both for the Congress and Channi’s political future”, he added.

Koul also said there was a general sense of resentment against turncoats.

“Unlike the rest of the country, people in Punjab are not in a mood to support turncoats like the BJP’s [Rinku], the AAP’s [Tinu] and SAD candidate [Kaypee],” he said.

Jaspal Kainth, an independent journalist who has been covering Dalit issues for long, said that Dalits feel there is currently no credible leader from their community in the Doaba region.

“There was a time when the Chaudhary family from Jalandhar ruled the political scene from Doaba. If Chaudhary Jagjit Singh remained a minister, so did his brother Santokh Singh Chaudhary, who was a two-time MP and an MLA from Jalandhar.

“However, after their demise, Dalits felt the need for a credible Dalit who could lead them,” he said.

Kainth said that with the Congress banking on Channi, who became Punjab’s first Dalit CM, there is a lot at stake for the party.

“If Channi wins, it will be a big push not only for his political future, but for the Congress’s idea of equality and empowerment among the Dalits and the marginalised section of the country”, he said.

He added that Channi’s proximity with Dera Sachkhand Ballan, the mecca of Guru Ravidas’s followers in Jalandhar, was also in focus.

Notably, Channi has been visiting Dera Ballan frequently, giving a strong message among Dalits that he was committed to the community.

“I received calls from people in the UK, US, Canada, Europe and the Middle East asking about Channi’s polls prospects. People want him to win from Jalandhar,” Kainth said.

Candidates’ poll planks

Jalandhar is famous for its sports, hand tools, surgical and leather industries, and was also once known for its furniture industry, which is now declining.

Apart from making promises around development, Channi has been seeking votes in the name of the Congress, saving the constitution and ridding Jalandhar of drugs, a menace that has ruined Punjab’s youth beyond imagination.

In his election rallies, Channi has been telling voters to beware of turncoats and people with a communal mindset.

“For me, making Jalandhar drug-free is my main target. Drugs flourished under the rule of those leaders who were earlier with us, but have joined the BJP now. It will either be me or the drugs. I have experience and education; I can raise your issues well,” Channi said.

Also read | Punjab: Amritpal Singh’s Anti-Drugs Crusade Could Clinch the Khadoor Sahib Election

Another noticeable factor was that all Congress MLAs and leaders welcomed Channi’s candidature, barring former Phillaur MLA Vikramjit Singh Chaudhary, son of Santokh Chaudhary.

Vikramjit was seeking a ticket for his mother, Karamjit Kaur, who lost the 2023 bypoll in Jalandhar.

Since the Congress fielded Channi, Karamjit Kaur joined the BJP, while Vikramjit was suspended from the Congress for anti-party activities.

AAP candidate Tinu has told voters that the AAP has delivered on all its promises.

“Within two years, the AAP has delivered what other parties could not even think about. From zero electricity bills to mohalla clinics and upgraded government schools, it has proved its mettle”, he said.

Tinu also said the Congress brought someone who failed as Punjab CM and even lost from his home turf to contest from Jalandhar.

“The Congress thinks that people will vote emotionally, but the AAP is all set to repeat its victory and break records,” he said.

BJP candidate Rinku asked voters to teach the AAP a lesson for ‘deliberately neglecting’ Dalits.

“CM Mann told me that when Dalits did not vote for the AAP, why should he work for them? How could they [the AAP] even think of repeating their win from Jalandhar? The AAP has an anti-Dalit mindset, which they have already proved by not taking up any development projects in Jalandhar. Only the BJP cares for Dalits and will work for them”, Rinku said.

Both Tinu and Rinku have questioned the Congress for not fielding a local candidate in Jalandhar.

As campaigning ended on May 30, Rinku’s team put up many wall-size posters in Jalandhar saying, ‘Chamkaur Sahib 122 kilometres, Rinku is in our hearts, hence we ask voters to elect a local leader from Jalandhar’.