Most exit polls have predicted a win for the BJP-led NDA in Jharkhand’s 81-seat assembly and one has predicted a landslide victory for INDIA.
The reliability of exit polls has eroded significantly in the past few elections. These numbers aside, three clear messages emerge from this election. There is general support for the Hemant Soren government’s welfare schemes. The BJP’s communal campaign of targeting Muslims under the garb of Bangladeshi infiltrators did not get traction amongst the Adivasis and other Jharkhandi communities. The Election Commission (EC) chose to support the BJP in its own way.
Support for state government’s welfare measures
There is visible support for the incumbent government’s welfare measures, mainly the Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana, the waiver of pending electricity bills and agricultural loans.
Women from across communities are vocally supportive of the Maiya Samman Yojana under which 18-50-year-old women get Rs 1,000 per month. Across the state, it is not uncommon to meet women who have received the money under the scheme or people whose loans were waived off.
The INDIA bloc has promised to increase the amount under the Maiya Samman Yojana to Rs 2,500 from December if voted back to power. It was also successful in disseminating this promise to the voters.
In addition to these, the Hemant Soren government undertook some key welfare initiatives such as reportedly increasing the coverage of the state social security pension schemes from 6.6 lakh people to 30 lakh people. The support extended by the state government to migrant workers during the COVID-19 lockdown months also added to its pro-welfare credentials.
Bangladeshi infiltrator narrative flops against Jharkhandi identity discourse
One of the main agendas of the BJP’s election campaign, led by Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, especially in the Santhal Pargana region, was the accusation of Bangladeshi ‘infiltration’ into the area. The deeply communal and divisive campaign painted Muslims as infiltrators who are marrying Adivasis to loot their land.
As the elections came closer, the campaign became more vicious. Sadly, the BJP’s claims were disseminated and, in many cases, promoted by the mainstream media without any factual counter.
However, ground reports by some independent journalists and fact-finding inquiries by civil society organisations exposed the hollowness of the BJP’s claims. The Union government’s own admission in the high court and parliament stands contrary to the BJP’s rhetoric.
It is not surprising that this rhetoric did not find traction among voters even in Santhal Pargana, as it tried to create an issue that does not exist on the ground. In contrast to the BJP’s campaign, the INDIA bloc led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) kept its focus on welfare, local issues and questions of Jharkhandi identity.
For example, Hemant Soren cornered the BJP by stating that local land laws and Adivasi rights would prevail in the state instead of a National Register of Citizens and a uniform civil code. The JMM’s manifesto, though released just a couple of days before the first phase of elections, further strengthened its local issue-based discourse.
Political realignments – anti-BJP Adivasi consolidation and deepening Adivasi-Kudmi Mahato division
Building on the general anger among Adivasis against the policies of the Raghubar Das government such as the creation of a land bank, the attempts to amend local land laws and so on, the JMM-led alliance won 26 out of 28 Adivasi seats in the 2019 assembly elections (for the first time since the state’s creation).
The consolidation of Adivasis against the BJP continued in this year’s Lok Sabha elections when the party lost all five Adivasi seats in the state (for the first time after 2004).
The pro-corporate policies of the Modi government that came at the cost of Adivasi resources as well as the jailing of Hemant Soren further alienated Adivasis. It was instrumental in the defeat of the BJP in all of the state’s five Adivasi seats in this year’s general elections.
In the last five years, the BJP’s agenda of the assimilation of Adivasis into the Hindutva fold has faced stiff political resistance. It is not surprising that, in contrast to the BJP’s silence, INDIA parties were vocal in this election on the demand for a separate religious code for the Adivasis.
In its bid to regain its electoral base in the Adivasi areas, the BJP poached leaders like Champai Soren and Lobin Hembrom from the JMM before the assembly elections and focused intensively on the reserved seats. But there are indications that the Adivasis’ rejection of the BJP continues.
Also read | Threat to Roti, Mati, Beti: How BJP’s Bangladeshi ‘Infiltration’ Bogey Is Playing Out in Jharkhand
A major realignment in this election has been the consolidation of Kudmi Mahatos towards a new party. Kudmi Mahatos, primarily an agricultural community that claim indigeneity, comprise a significant part of the 40-45% backward population of the state (perhaps about 15% of the state’s total population). The Mahato population is more than 10% in at least 22 seats out of the state’s 81 seats.
During the heyday of Jharkhand movement, the Mahatos along with the Adivasis used to support the JMM. However, a large proportion of the community moved away from the JMM eventually towards the All Jharkhand Students’ Union party and the BJP.
In the last year and half, a large number of Mahatos have shifted towards the Jharkhand Bhasha Khatiyani Sangharsh Samiti (JBKSS) (now politically rechristened the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM)) led by 30-year-old Jairam Mahato. He is vocal on the issues of the youth, especially unemployment and domicile. The JBKSS/JLKM got about 5% of the vote in Jharkhand in this year’s Lok Sabha elections.
Ground reports suggest that the JLKM may win a significant amount of Mahato votes in the assembly elections. In its initial days, the organisation was gaining support among Adivasi youth too. But it was eventually labelled a Mahato party for several reasons, including its failure to project Adivasi leadership, a lack of focus on Adivasi issues and the Mahtos’ demand for Scheduled Tribe status.
Hence, while its electoral support may be restricted mainly to the Mahato community, it will decide the winner in a few seats by eating into the Mahato vote share of both sides.
The electoral contest apart, the political lines between the Adivasis and Kudmi Mahtos have further deepened in this election. They can have serious socio-political repercussions in the days ahead.
Growing complicity of the EC – muddying elections for the lotus’ growth
The EC’s stunning silence on the BJP’s blatantly communal and divisive campaign stood out this time. BJP leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Sarma and others repeatedly gave communal speeches targeting Muslims and tried to religiously mobilise Hindus.
Pro-BJP ‘shadow’ accounts spent crores on Meta to push the party’s agenda. The BJP also came out with ads that clearly showed Muslims as infiltrators and a threat. All these ads, social media posts and speeches are clear violation of the model code of conduct and in many cases, the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
Civil society groups and political parties filed several complaints with the EC, but the commission chose to be a mute spectator. The public outcry over the BJP’s latest communal ad finally got the the EC to take cognisance of the matter; but the elections were almost over by then.
Also read: BJP’s Blatant MCC Violations Ahead of Polls Show That Merely Serving Notices Won’t Be Enough
Clear political winners – Kalpana Soren, Hemant Soren and JMM
Despite having three Adivasi ex-chief ministers – Arjun Munda, Babulal Marandi and Champai Soren – in its fold, the BJP’s election campaign was visibly led by Sarma. On the other hand, the two leading faces of the INDIA bloc were Hemant Soren and Kalpana Soren. Kalpana Soren emerged as her own leader in this election. Hemant Soren effectively established himself as the leader of the alliance.
While there is visible pro-incumbency for the Hemant Soren government, voters wanted a change of candidate in many seats. But the INDIA bloc chose to repeat its non-performing MLAs. Both Hemant Soren and Kalpana Soren campaigned extensively across the state including in such seats. Ground reports suggest that people may have decided to overlook the poor performance of their local candidate in favour of the government’s welfare measures.
The JMM, while challenging the BJP at every step of its electoral game, may be on its way to becoming a pan-Jharkhand party. For a long time, the JMM’s support base was largely limited to Adivasi pockets in the state and certain geographical regions such as Santhal Pargana and Kolhan. It could never win more than 20 seats before 2019 assembly elections, when it was able to win 30 seats in alliance with the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal.
There are indications that the JMM may further strengthen its footprint in non-Adivasi areas this time.
There are also reports that the BJP may have tacitly supported a few independent candidates who can cut into the INDIA bloc’s votes. Coupled with local anti-incumbency, this may make the contest tight in those seats.
The poor show of the Congress in terms of its lacklustre campaign and weak organisation may be a factor too. It is ironic that while Rahul Gandhi is one of the most vocal leaders against the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, his rhetoric did not translate into Congress action on the ground.
Whether INDIA wins or the NDA, one thing is for certain; the BJP’s deeply communal and divisive politics is not winning.
Siraj Dutta is an activist based in Jharkhand.
