Ranchi: In the verdant jungles outlining Lohardaga, a small mining town in the south Chotanagpur region of Jharkhand, a 56-year-old BSNL employee named Tripurari Mishra quietly sipped his tea with his colleagues near the district administration office, while observing various campaign vehicles competing with each other in seeking support for their respective candidates.
There was a palpable excitement over the merits and demerits of the incumbent Hemant Soren-led state government in his cohort. But none of the concerns raised or praises mooted seemed enough for anyone in the group to change their choices. The group largely represented a chunk of the demographic diversity in Jharkhand – a Muslim, an Oraon Adivasi, a Brahmin and a Kurmi.
Mishra went on to sum up the 2024 assembly elections with great precision. “Adivasis and Muslims are on one side, while dikus [outsiders, most having roots in Bihar] on the other. As a result, where the Sadans [non-Adivasi indigenous people comprising mostly OBCs] swing will be the most crucial factor in the making of the new government.”
As the campaign for the first phase of the assembly polls on November 13 draws to a close, the battlelines are clearly laid out. The incumbent INDIA bloc comprising the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation is locked in a direct race with the NDA consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) led by Sudesh Mahato, and the Janata Dal (United), throwing up huge possibilities for a photo finish.
Ever since Jharkhand was born in 2000, it has often been in the limelight for unstable governments, hung assemblies and numerous chief ministerial terms. However, 2014 and 2019 became exceptions, when Raghubar Das led the BJP state government for a full term, followed by Hemant Soren, who led a stable JMM government, barring the six months when he was arrested in an alleged land scam case.
Soren rode to power in 2019 amidst huge discontent among Adivasis against the BJP government for passing amendments to the Chota Nagpur Tenancy Act and the Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act and the creation of land banks for industrial and mining units.
The Adivasis, who believed that these government moves were backhanded attempts to usurp their rights over their traditional resources – often articulated as jal, jangal, and zameen (water, forests, and land) – made a concerted political effort to back the JMM-Congress combine to deny Raghubar Das his second term.
Adivasis (27%) and Muslims (14%) form nearly 41% of the state’s demography. However, they are concentrated in pockets. While this social combination is mighty enough to secure most constituencies in the south Chotanagpur plateau and the Santhal Pargana, the Adivasis constitute a majority alone in the Kolhan region.
A clean sweep in these three regions in 2019 rocketed the JMM-Congress combine to power in the 81-member assembly, even though its performance was below par in other regions of the state.
Photo: FlyJet777/Wikimedia Commons. CC BY 4.0.
The INDIA bloc’s campaign
Ahead of the 2024 polls, the JMM sharpened its traditional Jharkhandi vs non-Jharkhandi political line in an attempt to consolidate its social base and with an assumption that dikus would at any rate not support it. It has now promised to implement a state domicile policy based on the 1932 khatiyan (domicile records) and the Sarna Dharma Code that acknowledges the Adivasi faiths and languages officially. Both have been long-pending demands for communities who consider themselves native to Jharkhand.
The recognition of the 1932 khatiyan is also an outreach to Sadans, who in previous elections have swung towards the NDA despite the fact that their leaders played a significant role with the JMM in the Jharkhand movement for the creation of a separate state.
Together, the Adivasis and the Sadans constitute the poorest of the state. The Soren government’s welfare schemes like the Maiyya Samman Yojana (an allowance for women), Abua Awas Yojana (allowance to build a house), health insurance cover, social security pension for all above 50 years of age and education schemes for the girl child, the INDIA bloc is hoping, may draw support for it from all social groups.
During a recent press briefing at his residence in Ranchi, chief minister Hemant Soren illustrated his government’s inclination as thus, “At a time when inflation and joblessness have reached dangerous proportions, our government has come to aid the poor. We do not claim that these schemes will significantly improve their conditions, but we have tried to put marham [healing balm] on their wounds.”
“If we are elected again, I am clear that my government’s sole aim will be to revive the rural economy, where the situation is horrifying. My sole intention will be to empower and uplift the poor,” he added.
The BJP’s political strategy
The saffron party, on the other hand, has made a fervent attempt to get back to power by deploying a new political formula.
In all previous elections, much of the BJP’s efforts were directed at consolidating people of Bihari origin, SCs, OBCs and a section of Sarna Adivasis. Since the party has depended nationally on the politics of polarisation, it employed a similar tactic in Jharkhand. In regions like north Chotanagpur and urban pockets, it has used its anti-Muslim pitch to consolidate Hindus, whereas in Adivasi-majority regions, it has pitched Sarnas against Christian Adivasis.
However, this time around, the BJP hasn’t targeted the Christians, but has chosen to pit all sections of Adivasis against Muslims by raising the bogey of “illegal Bangladeshi immigrants”.
All national leaders of the BJP, including Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Adityanath have consistently alleged that the JMM-Congress combine had sheltered such Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh for their self-interest and “vote bank politics” – something they say will squeeze the Adivasis and their rights over the state’s resources.
There is significant sympathy for Hemant Soren among Adivasis, a majority of whom believe he was wrongfully implicated and jailed. Photo: Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta.
Soren has responded firmly by dismissing the hypothesis as a falsehood, but has also questioned the Union government’s failure to stop such “illegal immigration” if any, as Jharkhand does not share a border with Bangladesh.
The “illegal immigration” hypothesis has little or no import on the ground. However, it has allowed the BJP to lead an impassioned anti-Muslim campaign. By choosing not to target Christians for the first time, it is hoping to draw Adivasis to its favour in certain constituencies of Santhal Pargana and Kolhan, but more importantly, prevent an Adivasi–Muslim consolidation against it that had proven costly for the party in 2019.
At the same time, the “illegal immigration” issue and its amplified media coverage has helped the BJP offset the JMM’s campaign around the 1932 khatiyan, which is a dominant concern among people in Jharkhand.
“The natives of Jharkhand, including Adivasis, never treated Muslims as the ‘other’. In fact, most Muslims of Jharkhand are natives of the state. Ever since the Jharkhand movement, the discontent of Jharkhandis was always aimed at people of Bihari origin who settled here after independence and have extracted the biggest benefits from the state,” Santosh Kiro, a former journalist who currently teaches at the St. Xaviers College in Ranchi, said.
The JMM’s canvassing has harped on the concerns related to Jharkhandi identity and the Soren government’s welfare schemes. Both Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren, who shot to fame when the chief minister was arrested, are drawing huge crowds in their rallies. There is significant sympathy for Soren among Adivasis, a large majority of whom believe that he was wrongfully implicated and sent to jail.
However, the JMM has faced a setback, too, with the exit of senior leader Champai Soren, who led the government as chief minister when Soren was under arrest. Soren has now joined the BJP and can prove to be a crucial factor in the JMM-Congress’s performance in the Kolhan region that has 14 assembly constituencies.
Additionally, the lacklustre campaign by the Congress, which is contesting in 29 constituencies, has prevented the alliance from pulling its weight across the state.
The BJP, on the other hand, has concentrated its efforts at polarising the electorate along religious lines, while trying to offset the JMM’s campaign through a mix of tactics. It lacks a face in the state, and has depended entirely on its national leadership.
However, the NDA is much more formidable in 2024 than it was in 2019. The BJP is supported by the AJSU, which had then contested separately, and Babulal Marandi, who merged his party, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), with the saffron party. Soon after the merger, the BJP elevated Marandi, a prominent Adivasi leader and former chief minister, as president of its state unit.
Moreover, by bringing in Champai Soren in its camp and attempting to drive a wedge between Adivasis and Muslims, it has also charted out a way to contain the INDIA bloc in its strongholds – Kolhan and Santhal Pargana.
The Kurmi factor
In such circumstances, where the Sadans swing – a factor that even BSNL employee Mishra pointed out – will clearly become the most influential factor in dictating the election’s outcome.
The Kurmi community, an estimated 32% of the state’s population, form a majority of Sadans and are particularly influential in the north Chotanagpur region. They have often switched between the JMM and the BJP in previous elections, but were seen as swinging towards the latter in the last two elections.
However, largely unhappy with both, a large section of the community has put its weight behind a new political formation, the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM) led by the young and dynamic Jairam Mahato.
Mahato has been almost belligerent in raising issues of Jharkhandi identity and the 1932 Khatiyan. He has taken on the entrenched political parties by pointedly highlighting their failures on the governance front. At the same time, he has made it a point to be seen as inclusive and secular. Some of his candidates performed exceedingly well in the Lok Sabha candidates, although none could win.
He may well prove to be a spoiler for both the dominant players, as his candidates have made many contests triangular. According to observers, it may damage both the INDIA bloc and the NDA, depending on the constituency’s specific equations.
Even a slight swing in such a tightly contested poll can throw up unexpected numbers in the new assembly. At the moment, the 2024 elections could be anybody’s game, and a last-minute push becomes all the more important for both camps.
