The 2024 Legislative Assembly polling in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has just concluded, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) putting forward a narrative of normalcy and progress throughout its campaign. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and the party’s spokespersons have repeatedly asserted that terrorism has been eradicated in the region.
They have also drawn attention to the “record-breaking” voter turnout, framing it as evidence that their policies, including the reading down of Article 370, have led to political normalisation and increased democratic participation in J&K.
However, a closer examination of the data reveals a more complex picture, one that does not fully align with the government’s claims.
Before we get to what this column is about, let us make clear what it is not about. In assessing BJP’s claims of progress, we will not discuss J&K’s highest female unemployment rate or the second highest youth unemployment rate, as shown in the periodic labour force survey.
We will also not talk about a parliamentary committee report from 2023 that puts the share of drug users in J&K at 10 per cent of the population. We most certainly will not discuss terrorism government data that shows that the number of terror incidents and killings of security personnel in the five years since 2019 is greater in the five years between 2011 and 2015 or that terrorism has now spread to Jammu region.
There is a lot more that we will not discuss in this column. Instead, we will only focus on voter participation in the just concluded election.
The general perception, fanned by the BJP, the Election Commission, and sections of the media, suggests that the voter turnout this time has been unprecedented. Speaking in Kashmir after the first phase, the Prime Minister noted that “the historic turnout in Jammu & Kashmir’s ongoing assembly polls is proof of a “Naya Kashmir”.
At the conclusion of the election, the Chief Election Commissioner, Rajiv Kumar, is quoted as saying that the “J&K Assembly elections have marked a significant deepening of democracy which will echo in the pages of history and continue to inspire a democratic spirit of the region for years to come.”
Media reports about “long lines” outside polling stations give the impression that an election like this one has not been conducted for decades, if not ever. Nothing could be further from the truth, however.
As this column will show, the people of J&K have held on to democracy even under the most difficult circumstances. The participation of the voters in the current election, while welcome and a source of comfort, is hardly unprecedented.
In fact, Election Commission data shows that voter turnout of 64.4 per cent in 2024 is lower than the 65.2 per cent in 2014 (after accounting for 4 seats of Ladakh, which are no longer part of J&K after the delimitation exercise). A 0.8-point decline may not seem much, but it directly challenges the BJP’s narrative of enhanced electoral engagement following the reading down of Article 370. If we step back to look at the historical voter trends in J&K, a more layered story emerges.
In 1996, amidst the height of the insurgency, voter turnout was just 54.1 per cent. This plummeted further to 42.9 per cent in 2002, as violence and instability dominated the region. Yet, by 2008, voter turnout saw a resurgence to 61.3 per cent, eventually peaking at 65.2 per cent in 2014. This steady rise in participation had strengthened democracy in J&K.
A deeper dive into the data yields a simple truth. We can make any assertion that we want but the fact remains that even in Kashmir Valley, voter turnout is down compared to 2014. More seats had a decline in voter turnout than seats with an increase.
This happened both in Jammu and Kashmir. Overall, 57 constituencies recorded a decline in voter turnout. Of these 57, 31 constituencies lie in Jammu, and 26 are in Kashmir, showing that this trend of reduced participation is not exclusive to one region but extends across the state.
This raises an important counterfactual: if elections were held as scheduled in 2019, before the reading down of Article 370, would the region have seen normal elections with a potentially higher voter turnout than in 2014? The data suggests this might have been the case.
The 2019 general elections also saw significant participation, and if Legislative Assembly elections had been held in tandem, there is reason to believe that voter engagement might have continued on a positive trajectory.
However, using the reading down of Article 370 as a political tool, breaking up the state, demoting it to union territory status, and imposing direct central rule for 6 years, the Modi government set back the cause of democracy in J&K. Trumpeting a Supreme Court mandated election with a decreased turnout as a political win reflects BJP’s destructive instincts to place its own interests above the nation’s.
The complex situation in J&K requires a more nuanced approach than the one employed by the government. The people of J&K deserve a political approach that prioritises their dignity, peace, and democratic engagement. A lasting solution will require an honest acknowledgment of these challenges and a commitment to addressing them in a way that respects the rights and aspirations of the people of J&K.
Salman Anees Soz, a former World Banker, is a member of the Indian National Congress and Tanuja Pandey is a Research Assistant.