While Haryana has sprung an interesting surprise for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in a complete reversal of exit poll trends, the poll predictions for Jammu and Kashmir had painted a fragmented picture with a hung assembly and the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance holding a slim lead over the BJP. Most exit polls at the national and local level projected 35-50 seats for the NC-Congress bloc and 24-34 for the BJP, with independent candidates poised to play a decisive role as kingmakers, possibly securing up to 23 seats.
However, the election results have differed greatly from these inaccurate predictions, with the NC-Congress bloc outperforming expectations and independents playing a much smaller role than anticipated. Contrary to exit poll forecasts, the NC-Congress alliance not only secured a clear lead but also won more seats than expected before crossing the majority mark with ease.
While independents were projected to hold a considerable sway, their actual seat count fell short of predictions, indicating that voters, particularly in rural and marginalised areas, preferred established political entities over new or hyper-local contenders. This outcome reflects a broader trend where voters, despite expressing dissatisfaction with traditional parties, chose the NC-Congress alliance over independents, perhaps seeking stability and a more experienced leadership to navigate the region’s post-Article 370 future.
The BJP, while maintaining its stronghold in Jammu, failed to make significant inroads in Kashmir, where the NC remains dominant. This underscores the regional divide in voter preferences, with the BJP’s focus on Hindu-majority constituencies yielding dividends in Jammu and the Congress-NC alliance’s appeal holding firm in the Muslim-majority valley. Economic issues such as unemployment and inflation, combined with the long-standing demand for statehood and greater autonomy, seem to have strengthened the NC-Congress bloc’s position.
The overall deviation from exit poll projections also highlights the challenges of accurately gauging voter sentiment in a politically complex region like Jammu and Kashmir while spotlighting the faulty research design associated with exit polls.
‘A watershed moment’
The 2024 assembly elections mark a watershed moment in Jammu and Kashmir’s complex political history. The assembly elections, first in a decade since the revocation of J&K’s special status under Article 370 and its reconstitution as a Union Territory, have undoubtedly been shaped by the constitutional change of 2019. In this context, the assembly elections are not merely a procedural event, but symbolise the exercise of democracy in a Union Territory that was, until recently, a full-fledged state with special autonomy. The shift from statehood to Union Territory is closely tied to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of ‘Naya Kashmir’ and represents a radical reconfiguration of the political structure of the erstwhile state.
Moreover, what makes the elections historic is their occurrence against a backdrop of political upheaval and uncertainty. Despite widespread anger and dissatisfaction with the reading down of Article 370 and loss of statehood, the polls didn’t see mass boycotts that have been witnessed in the past.
The J&K assembly elections this time were not just a battle between established political parties but also one between independent candidates, some even affiliated to banned groups like Jamaat-e-Islami. The entry of new faces like Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid and Sarjan Barkati’s daughter Sugra Barkati, which contained emotional appeal within themselves, coupled with the absence of traditional political stalwarts like Ghulam Nabi Azad and Mehbooba Mufti further amplified this shift, suggesting that the political future of J&K is more open and unpredictable than ever before.
The elections in J&K also highlight a deeper and more strategic reshaping of political alliances and social dynamics. The Union government’s stress on ‘Naya Kashmir’ is not just rhetorical, but a deliberate attempt to change the political DNA in J&K by giving space to alternative voices and disrupting old patterns of loyalty and power. The participation of independent candidates and political newcomers reveals a diversification of political aspirations among voters, particularly in a region long dominated by traditional political families.
These elections served as a litmus test for the Union government’s broader national project of ‘integration’ of the erstwhile state with the rest of the country. While the move to revoke J&K’s special status was framed as a step towards greater national integration, the elections have revealed a more complex reality. Some see the constitutional change of 2019 as a necessary step towards development and political stabilisation, while others see it a deliberate attempt to erode J&K’s identity and autonomy.
Pre-poll dynamics: Shifting political alliances and public sentiment
The pre-poll landscape in J&K witnessed a change in political atmosphere, defined by a pronounced shift in allegiances. The shift seems to have been driven by widespread disillusionment with both local parties and the Union government. Far from ushering in the promised era of “Naya Kashmir,” the reading down of Article 370 exacerbated feelings of disenfranchisement among large sections of the population.
This discontent extended beyond the local political elites – the NC and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – and reached the central administration, which was seen as mismanaging the region’s governance and failing to deliver on key promises.
The erosion of J&K’s statehood and the imposition of direct rule by a Lieutenant Governor (LG), directed by the Union government, fostered a belief that local democracy has been hollowed out in the region. Many people felt that even if a popular government was elected, the real power would still remain concentrated in the hands of the LG – a post that is not accountable to the people.
As many remarked, J&K had been reduced to a “municipality” after 2019, rendering elected officials powerless and unable to make substantial decisions for the region. This sense of political disempowerment was coupled with economic grievances. High unemployment, rising inflation and the lack of basic infrastructure fed into the broader narrative of the Union government’s mismanagement, as the promised economic revival remained elusive.
This dual dissatisfaction was rooted in both local mis-governance by traditional parties and the Union government’s top-down administration.
This led to a noticeable shift in voter sentiment. Many residents, particularly the younger generation, rejected the established parties and sought alternatives in new political movements and independent candidates. This desire for change reflected a broader shift in public sentiment – one that was no longer solely defined by loyalty to regional or national parties but by a search for genuine solutions to the region’s complex socio-economic and political challenges. These shifting allegiances indicated a pre-poll atmosphere in which voters, grappling with a loss of trust in both regional and national leaders, were eager for new leadership capable of delivering substantive change in the post-Article 370 era.
Ishfaq Ahmed is research scholar at University of Kashmir, Centre of Central Asian Studies.
Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, and Director, Centre for New Economics Studies. He is a Visiting Professor at London School of Economics and an Academic Visiting Fellow to AMES, University of Oxford.
