Umer Maqbool 
Srinagar: In the recently held assembly polls in Jammu & Kashmir, National Conference-led alliance was expected to do well in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley and the Bharatiya Janata Party in the plains of Hindu-majority Jammu region.
While the outcome in these two regions was almost on the expected lines, the BJP faced a humiliating defeat in the real battleground – the Pir Panjal region comprising Rajouri and Poonch districts – where it went all-out to woo the local population, especially Paharis, post the reading down of the Article 370.
While the BJP had adopted a multi-layered strategy in the election to win the maximum number of seats in the region, it ended up winning only one out of eight seats despite careful management of delicate caste equations and religious dynamics.
In the Pir Panjal region, the NC- Congress alliance candidates secured five seats while two seats were bagged by NC rebels, who have pledged support to Omar Abdullah-led government after emerging victorious.
BJP’s hopes dashed
After the delimitation exercise in 2022, the Muslim-majority Pir Panjal region, with a significant Hindu population and deeply entrenched caste fault lines, emerged as a key battleground for the electoral contest between National Conference- Congress and BJP. In its bid to woo the majority Pahari community in the region, the BJP-led Union Government granted Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to them, but at the same time it tried its best to ensure that Gujjar-Bakerwals, who have a significant population in the region, are not antagonised.
While enhancing the quota of Paharis in the government jobs and admissions to 10 per cent, the Union Territory administration headed by Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha didn’t tinker with the 10 per cent quota of Gujjar-Bakerwals.
The saffron party left no stone unturned to win at least 4-5 seats from the region. It brought in influential Gujjar leaders like Choudhary Zulfikar Ali (former minister in PDP-BJP government) and Abdul Gani Choudhary (a member of district development council in Poonch) into its fold and fielded them as its candidates.
While selecting candidates, the party tried its best to manage delicate caste fault lines and religious dynamics. Of eight candidates fielded by the party, five were Muslims and three Hindus.
It fielded Muslim candidates in all Muslim-majority segments except Rajouri segment and Hindu candidates in Hindu-majority seats.
In Rajouri segment, where Hindu population is believed to be above 35 %, the party had chosen a Hindu candidate as its nominee.
It also tried to balance the caste dynamics in the region. Of these candidates, six were Paharis and two Gujjars. Almost all bigwigs of the BJP campaigned for the party candidates through the length and breadth of these two hill districts.
Strategy of banking on Pahari candidates didn’t succeed
Despite its multi-layered strategy, the BJP managed to win only one out of eight seats in the region, shattering its dream of emerging as the single largest party in J&K and gaining power in the UT. It even failed to retain one of the two seats it had won in 2014 J&K polls. In 2014, it won Nowshera and Kalakote seats in Pir Panjal region. The latter had fewer than 50 percent Muslim population.
In the Pir Panjal region, according to the Election Commission of India (ECI) data, the BJP lost six out of seven seats by margins ranging from 6,000 to 20,000. It ended up at the third position in the Pahari-majority Surankote seat despite fielding the most prominent Pahari leader as its candidate.
It had fielded Syed Mushtaq Bukhari, who passed away a few days before October 8 results, as its candidate from Surankote and was hoping for consolidation of Pahari vote behind him and division of Gujjar vote between two other candidates – Choudhary Akram (independent) and Shanawaz Choudhary (Congress) – both Gujjars. The Gujjar population in the segment is around 41-42 per cent.
While Gujjar vote got divided between Akram and Shanawaz, the BJP couldn’t get en-masse Pahari support with its rivals also getting a significant share of the community’s votes.
In Poonch Haveli segment, BJP fielded Choudhary Abdul Gani as its candidate. With 31 per cent Gujjar population, the BJP was counting on consolidation of the tribal vote bank and a sizeable Hindu electorate. However, the vote bank of these two communities got divided among the contesting candidates, resulting in the defeat of its candidate by a heavy margin of 20,879 votes.
The party’s strategy of banking on Pahari candidates in other Pahari-dominated segments like Thanamnadi Rajouri and Mendhar also didn’t translate into seats.
Defeat of state president huge embarrassment for saffron party
The party also lost badly in the lone Gujjar- majority segment of Budhal, where it had fielded two-time MLA and former minister Choudhary Zulfikar Ali. Javaid Iqbal Choudhary of National Conference defeated Zulfikar by a margin of 18098 votes.
The biggest shock to the BJP came from Nowshera segment where its state president Ravinder Raina lost to his old political rival and NC’s Surinder Choudhary by more than 7,000 votes, something that is a remarkable achievement for J&K’s grand old regional party and huge embarrassment for the saffron party. Nowshera has more than 80 percent Hindu population.
The BJP admitted that the outcome in the region was below its expectations. “It is a fact that we didn’t get seats from the region. We would analyse the results and find out the reasons behind it,” BJP’s J&K unit general secretary (organisation) Ashok Koul told The Wire.
He, however, said the party’s vote share increased in the region. “We used to get a few hundred votes from segments such as these but we have now got thousands of votes each segment in these districts,” he said.