The electoral battleground has shifted to the Pir Panjal region following a smooth first phase of polling in the Chenab Valley. The Pir Panjal region will head for polls on September 25 for eight assembly constituencies.
The Pir Panjal region, often known as the land of saints and seven lakes is now marred by political divides and regional identities.
Historically, the region has been a stronghold of the National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This year’s elections are happening after the 2022 delimitation exercise, which reserved nine out of the 90 assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir for Scheduled Tribes (STs).
These reserved seats include three in Rajouri, two in Poonch, and one in Reasi district in the Jammu region. The dynamics in Pir Panjal are evolving due to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) recent endorsement of Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for the Pahari community.
The Pir Panjal region of Jammu and Kashmir has become a critical battleground for the upcoming assembly elections, with the BJP making strategic moves to balance the complex social equations between the region’s Pahari and Gujjar communities, both of which have historically maintained distinct identities.
This move is seen as a calculated attempt by the BJP to gain a foothold in constituencies such as Naushera, Rajouri, Sunderbani, Budhal, Surankote, and Kalakote. With the Pahari community receiving the long-sought ST recognition, the BJP is banking on tapping into a fresh voter base previously overlooked by both the state and central governments.
While the Pahari community’s inclusion in the ST category has been a significant political breakthrough, it has also sparked resentment among the Gujjar and Bakerwal communities.
The question that looms large is whether the BJP’s focus on identity politics can outweigh the development and security challenges that have historically plagued the Pir Panjal region.
“The introduction of Pahari reservation is poised to significantly alter Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape. This move may exacerbate existing tensions between different ethnic groups, particularly the Gujjars and Bakarwals, who have historically been at odds with Paharis over resource allocation and political representation,” says assistant professor of history and a Pahari, Kashab Sharma.
“The reservation policy could potentially shift voting patterns and power dynamics in the region. The emphasis on reservation over development raises questions about long-term economic growth and social progress. Historically, such policies have shown mixed results in addressing systemic inequalities. Ultimately, the upcoming elections in the Pir Panjal region will be a litmus test for whether identity politics can be a winning formula in one of the most diverse and underdeveloped parts of Jammu and Kashmir”
Scenes of rivers merging in Poonch. Photo: Kanwal Singh
Rajouri, a key constituency in the second phase of elections, has recently witnessed significant turmoil due to targeted killings in Dangri and incidents involving militants in the Dera Gali jungles, where Indian army soldiers and senior officers lost their lives in counter-insurgency operations.
Despite these security challenges, the situation seems to be overlooked during the ongoing poll campaign. However, political analysts note that the enthusiasm among voters indicates that these incidents may not significantly impact their participation in the election.
How Gujjar-Pahari divide has deepened over time
In Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), the Gujjar-Pahari divide has deepened over time, exacerbated by socio-political dynamics rather than being resolved through genuine efforts to bridge differences. The Gujjar-Pahari fault line, particularly evident in Rajouri and Poonch, has historically shaped the political landscape of this region.
Instead of addressing the underlying issues between these communities, political parties have often exploited the Gujjar and Pahari identities for electoral gain, a tactic that further entrenches their positions and sharpens the conflict.
As noted by Zafar Choudhary in his report for the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies titled “Understanding the Gujjar-Pahari Fault Line in J&K”, the political maneuvering around this divide has resulted in short-term vote bank dividends, but risks becoming unmanageable in the future if left unresolved.
The key to preventing further escalation of tension lies in understanding who these communities are, what their stakes are in J&K, and how their socio-economic and historical circumstances have shaped this division.
Historically, the Gujjar community in J&K, which constitutes around 88 per cent of the state’s tribal population and traces its origins to Central Asia and the regions around Mount Abu in western Rajasthan, Malwa and Gujarat, has remained one of the most economically disadvantaged groups in the region.
Predominantly pastoralists, the Gujjars have long struggled with poverty and marginalisation, especially in districts such as Rajouri, Poonch, Baramulla, and Kupwara, where tensions with the Pahari and Rajput populations have been particularly pronounced.
In contrast, the Paharis are a more settled agrarian community, although they too have faced marginalisation. In Jammu and Kashmir, the Pahari community encompasses several religious groups like Hindus, Sikhs, Muslims, primarily distinguished by their geographic and cultural ties rather than strict religious affiliations.
Also Read: Why Jammu Deserves Attention in J&K Assembly Elections
The struggles of the Pahari community reflect broader issues of socio-economic inequality in the region, underscoring the need for targeted policies to uplift marginalised groups.
According to Choudhary, Gujjars are perhaps the only Muslim community in J&K whose nationalistic credentials have remained unquestioned. Gujjars have supported the Indian military during major anti-militancy operations, such as Operation Sarpvinash, and many have suffered greatly due to militancy and conflict.
Their historical experiences, including losses during the wars of 1947 and 1965, have made them strong advocates for cross-LoC confidence-building measures.
Choudhary also highlights the entrenched social dynamics between the Gujjars and Paharis in the Pir Panjal region.
“Traditionally, Gujjars have been tillers of the lands owned by Rajput Zamindars, often working as domestic helps and casual laborers. This historical relationship has fostered a significant social hierarchy, with Gujjars occupying a subordinate position within the broader socio-economic landscape. Even today, this social differentiation remains a defining factor in the Gujjar-Pahari divide. Gujjars constitute the largest proportion of domestic help in Rajput households, reflecting a persistent power imbalance, illustrating a deep-rooted cultural stigma,” says Choudhary.
Choudhary argues that a comprehensive socio-economic survey of the communities in the Gujjar-Pahari heartland is essential to better understand their needs and create policies that address their grievances. Without such efforts, the divide will continue to pose challenges for future governments.
Both BJP and INDIA Alliance eyeing seats in Pir Panjal
In the 2014 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) managed to win two seats in Rajouri, and now it is looking to further consolidate its position. On the other side, the Congress-National Conference alliance, riding high on their recent success in the Lok Sabha elections, is eager to maintain momentum.
BJP leaders, including Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, are scheduled to address several rallies in the region, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to deliver a rally before the campaign concludes in the twin border districts.
Rah-E-Milan, the final point of the Poonch-Rawalakot trade route. Photo: Kanwal Singh
The political contest between the BJP and the INDIA alliance (NC-Congress) is heating up, with both trying to expand their vote share in this crucial region. According to the seat-sharing agreement between NC and Congress, Congress will contest seats such as Thannamandi, Rajouri, Surankote, Mata Vaishno Devi Katra, and Reasi.
Meanwhile, NC has fielded candidates in Gulabgarh (Reasi district), Budhal, Nowshera, Sunderbani-Kalakote (Rajouri district), as well as Mendhar and Poonch (Poonch district).
A central component of the BJP’s strategy is balancing between communities. For example, Zulfiqar Chaudhary, a Gujjar candidate for the BJP, highlights the party’s outreach to Gujjar and Bakerwal voters, who initially felt sidelined after the Pahari community was granted ST status.
Meanwhile, the rise of independent candidates like Dr. Udeshpaul Sharma, son of former MLC Yashpal Sharma, in Poonch Haveli is shaking up the traditional political landscape.
Veteran leader and Member of Parliament from Poonch-Anantnag Constituency Mian Altaf, a spiritual figure respected by both communities, is working to bridge this gap in the favour of NC. The stakes are high as both groups are pivotal to the election outcome in these districts.
Key battles and contenders
Rajouri and Poonch districts together hold over 840,000 voters, making them crucial in shaping the region’s political landscape. With constituencies reserved for STs and others open for general contest, the competition is fierce, and every vote counts.
In the Rajouri ST seat, with 89,102 voters, BJP has fielded veteran Pahari politician Vibodh Gupta, who will face Congress’s Iftikhar Ahmad, PDP’s Gujjar candidate Tasaduq Hussain, and independent candidate Mian Mahfooz.
The Budhal (ST) seat, with 95,072 voters, is witnessing a three-way fight. BJP’s Choudhary Zulfikar, a prominent Gujjar leader, is up against his nephew Javaid Choudhary (NC) and young Gujjar activist Guftar Choudhary (PDP).
In the Kalakote-Sunderbani constituency, with 97,541 voters, BJP’s Abdul Gani Kohli, a Gujjar leader, won the seat in 2014. However, this time, BJP has fielded Thakur Ranbir Singh, who is contesting against his nephew, Yushuvardhan Thakur of NC.
Thanamandi (ST), with 1,22,370 voters, is one of the most unpredictable seats in the region, with Congress, PDP, BJP, and an independent NC rebel candidate in the fray. BJP is hoping to bank on Pahari votes, while PDP’s Qammar Chowdhary is aiming for Gujjar-Bakerwal support.
In Nowshera, with 86,506 voters, BJP State President Ravinder Raina faces a tough challenge from Surinder Choudhary (NC-Congress), a former PDP MLC who has shifted parties multiple times. Choudhary enjoys substantial support from Gujjar-Bakarwals and Jats, making the contest highly competitive.
In Surankote (ST), with 1,13,342 voters, BJP’s Syed Mushtaq Bukhari, a senior Pahari leader, is contesting against the Congress-NC alliance-backed Gujjar candidate Shahnawaz Choudhary. Independent candidate Akram Choudhary, a former NC legislator, is also in the race, making it a complex contest. This constituency is significant due to the BJP’s essential electoral strategy.
Unlike other parties, the BJP has successfully worked to reconcile and appease candidates who chose to run as independents due to dissatisfaction with seat allocations. They managed to win over Sohail Malik, a key figure and rising leader in the Pahari community, who initially decided to contest independently. This support ultimately strengthens the party’s chances of ensuring victory for Syed Mushtaq Bhukhari.
Economic and developmental challenges in Rajouri-Poonch
The Pir Panjal region, including Rajouri and Poonch, has historically been backward in terms of development. The challenges range from lack of infrastructure, insufficient healthcare, and limited economic opportunities.
One glaring example is the village of Narla Bambal in Rajouri, which only received electricity for the first time in 2018, 70 years after India’s independence. Similarly, other remote villages in Rajouri were connected to electricity and basic infrastructure under the Saubhagya and Deen Dayal Upadhyay schemes, improving the quality of life for thousands of families.
Prior to this, many residents lived without basic amenities such as electricity, which greatly hindered their development prospects.
In terms of economic potential, the region holds immense promise. The Poonch-Rawalkot cross-LoC trade route, initiated in 2006 under the Rah-E-Milan initiative, was a significant step in fostering economic ties between the two sides of Kashmir.
The trade route allowed for the exchange of goods like handicrafts, dry fruits, and medicinal herbs, which not only boosted the local economy but also contributed to peace-building efforts. However, the route was suspended following the 2019 Pulwama attack, hampering the economic growth of the border districts.
As a landlocked region, cross-border trade routes like this one are vital to the economic development of J&K. Resuming and expanding these routes could offer a much-needed economic lifeline, provided there is peace in the region.
Due to the absence of proper medical facilities, many residents from Rajouri-Poonch are forced to travel to Jammu for essential treatment, often in critical situations. This lack of medical infrastructure has cost many lives, particularly in emergencies. A tragic reminder of this is the 2005 earthquake, where many lost their lives due to Poonch’s lack of a government medical college. Even 19 years later, the region still faces similar issues, with healthcare access being a pressing challenge.
But the political landscape emerging in this region indicates that these elections are focused more on ST reservations for the Pahari community and the political and regional divisions than on developmental issues.
Kanwal Singh is a policy analyst from J&K.
