In NDA's By-Poll Victory, a Warning and Lesson for Bihar's Young Opposition Leaders

Patna: The results of the by-elections in Bihar’s two assembly seats – Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan – have come as the strong warning to the opposition of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and also Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas).

The Janata Dal-United (JDU) ruling the state in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has retained the two seats vacated due to the deaths of Mewalal Choudhary (Tarapur) and Shashi Bhushan Hazari (Kusheshwar Asthan).

Chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JDU had won the Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan seats in the 2020 assembly elections, while battling odds and contradictions within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Nitish’s efforts ensured the NDA remained united. Bihar’s deputy chief minister from BJP, Tarkeshwar Prasad also worked overtime in the two seats to ensure that the BJP-JDU’s votes are not given away. Nitish’s own party men, Lallan Singh, Sanjay Jha and party president Upendra Kushwaha camped in the constituencies for days, working in unison with BJP’s cadres, at the ground level.

On the other hand, the last minute arrival of Bihar’s most charismatic leader and by far the biggest crowd puller, Lalu Prasad Yadav, on scene created over-confidence among RJD cadres. This and misplaced understanding of political reality on the ground level led to the RJD-Congress alliance falling apart with Congress fielding its candidates on the two seats.

It is not that the charisma of Lalu Prasad did not work. He addressed only two meetings each at Tarapur and Kusheshwar Asthan but his party’s candidate gave fight to JDU’s till the last rounds of counting and lost by a whisker.

The JDU retained the Tarapur seat by a slender margin of 3,852 votes. Importantly, the Congress nominee secured 3,590 votes and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) of Chirag Paswan got 5,364 votes.

If the figures of the result are analysed, it becomes clear that the RJD and the Congress could in no way afford to fall apart. Rather, they should work hard to widen the reach of the mahagathbandhan in Bihar by accommodating Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) which has little chance of tying up with Nitish Kumar. In fact, Lalu Prasad has shown strong inclination towards accommodating Chirag in the alliance.

Lessons for Tejaswhi

Lalu’s heir apparent, Tejashwi Yadav did stupendously well in the 2020 assembly election by capitalising on issues of unemployment, price rise, education and medicine, steering his RJD to emerge as the single largest party with 75 MLAs.

The by-election gives no hint that he has fallen on the matrix of clout and popularity. The by-poll results have given a message to the RJD scion to learn the meticulous way of operating from his chacha (uncle), Nitish and use the indomitable legacy and charisma of his father with more dexterity to achieve larger goals in politics.

Also read: 44 Years in Politics, Yet Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Relevance in Bihar Remains Undiminished

RJD will gain if Tejashwi picks up Lalu’s knack for securing micro-level control of local politics in Bihar’s hinterlands.

In a practical sense, his RJD is in a “no loss-no gain” situation because Nitish has just retained what he had.

Lessons for Chirag

The by-poll results have decisively established that Chirag Paswan led LJP (Ram Vilas) is the real inheritor of his father, Ram Vilas Paswan’s political capital. The breakaway group led by his uncle Pashupati Nath Paras has merged its identity with the NDA.

Chirag’s candidates earned 5,623 and 5,364 votes in Kuseshwar Asthan and Tarapur respectively. The number of votes in his favour has suggested that the caste group loyal to the party, the Paswans, remain its base. However, he cannot travel alone on Bihar’s turf.

Chirag, too, has to follow his father and pick up the ability to judge the political weather in the nick of time and shift his loyalty to RJD-Congress or BJP, while at once maintaining his socialist secular credential.

The developments in Bihar indicate that Nitish will not allow space for Chirag in the NDA and as such, Chirag will have to take a call sooner than later.

Also read: RJD or NDA? Which Way Will Chirag Paswan Gravitate for Political Future in Bihar

Lessons for Kanhaiya Kumar

After joining the Congress, Kanhaiya Kumar effectively worked as the grand old party’s star campaigner pulling massive crowds, mainly of youths, in Kuseshwar Asthan and Tarapur.

The Congress – despite having been bereft of cadres and machinery at the local levels – earned over 3,000 to 5,000 votes in the two seats. This suggests that Congress is still left with seeds which could germinate if nursed well. Kanhaiya launched scathing and pointed attacks on prime minister Narendra Modi and earned applauses too. He too brought up real issues of employment, livelihood and increasing control of business houses on India’s public assets.

As campaigner, crowd puller and speaker Kanhaiya was second to none.

But he will have to go a long way in learning the art and science of operating in the intricate maze of Bihar’s complex society to earn votes for his new party. He was diligent enough not to attack the RJD in his campaign speeches. However, while continuing with his tirade against Modi, Kanhaiya will have to work with Tejaswhi, the experienced RJD cadres and also his former ideological brethen – the left parties that comprise CPI, CPI-ML and CPM in Bihar at the ground level.

In nutshell, the by-poll results in Bihar have given a larger warning to the opposition parties – particularly the emerging leadership in the opposition – to work hard to put their act together, work together at the grounds level and be smart against the RSS-BJP machinery.

The Narendra Modi-led BJP has not been able to communalise the state’s society as much as it has in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh and for this, the credit, to a large extent, goes to socialist and secular Nitish Kumar. If at all Bihar’s ‘upper’ castes vote for the BJP, they do so more for political reasons rather than their love for Hindutva politics. The extremely backward castes (EBCs) vote for the saffron party because it allows Nitish – a big leader of the EBCs – to stay as the chief minister despite his party having fewer MLAs.

In such a situation, opposition parties will have to devise ways to focus more on united and concerted political operations suited specifically to Bihar and against the NDA.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author and professor of journalism and mass communication at Invertis University, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh.