New Delhi: After the Congress defeated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and came into power in Bangalore in May last year, the BJP’s central leadership took six months to finally appoint B.S.Yediyurappa’s son, B.Y. Raghavendra, as the state unit chief in November.
After months of uncertainty, this was finally seen as an attempt to consolidate their stronghold over the dominant Lingayat community.
The party also struck an alliance with the H.D. Kumaraswamy-led Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)), which has historically exercised strong control over the other most dominant community in the state, the Vokkaligas.
It appeared briefly that the BJP’s social coalition under Yediyurappa’s de facto leadership was a formidable front to take on the Congress’s umbrella comprising OBCs, Dalits, Muslims and a section of Adivasis.
However, a few developments in Karnataka in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections have again put the spotlight on the BJP’s divided house in Karnataka, despite the central leadership’s persistent efforts to quell the internal rebellions in the party’s state unit.
At the same time, the Congress camp led by chief minister Siddaramaiah and deputy chief minister D.K. Shivakumar has consolidated the electoral ground on the basis of the systematic implementation of some of the party’s electoral “guarantees” and a campaign against the Union government’s alleged discrimination (both financial and political) during one of the worst droughts that has hit the state.
Eedina survey springs a surprise
A survey done by Eedina, a Kannada news platform that predicted the 2023 assembly results accurately, gave the Congress a decisive edge in the parliamentary elections.
The survey with a sample size of 52,678 people was done before both primary political rivals in the state had announced their candidates between February 15 and March 5, 2024.
However, some of the conclusions they drew were surprising, given the fact that Karnataka voters have chosen the BJP over the Congress in successive Lok Sabha elections.
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Ever since the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has managed to increase its vote share gradually and has secured a greater number of Lok Sabha seats than the Congress since 2004, irrespective of its performance in assembly elections.
The BJP secured 18 out of the 28 seats in 2004 with nearly 35% of the vote share, 19 seats with around 42% of the vote in 2009, 17 seats with 43% votes in 2014, and swept the 2019 elections with 25 seats with over 51% of the vote share.
The Eedina survey has projected a possible 10% slide in the BJP-JD(S) alliance’s vote share (42.35%) in 2024, while showing an over 10% upswing for the Congress (43.77%).
It projected 17 seats for the Congress and 11 for the BJP.
The reasons, Eedina’s survey showed, was a feeling of financial security that the Congress has felt since it came to power in 2023.
Its respondents spoke well about the Congress state government’s welfare schemes while showing despondency towards a steep increase in the prices of essential goods, fewer employment opportunities and rising inequality.
A large number of respondents (47.64%) believed that India’s stature has grown under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and around 69% of respondents gave a thumbs-up to Modi and rated his regime either satisfactory or excellent.
Over 45% of them believed that he should get a third term.
But well over half of those surveyed – around 56% – still felt that the Congress was better placed to benefit the commoners. Among Congress voters, women comprised almost 60%.
Clearly, the biggest driving factor in the BJP’s campaign will be the prime minister himself, as the saffron party rarely evoked confidence on other counts among respondents.
An ‘unnatural alliance’ and the BJP’s divided camp
The survey aside, most observers in Karnataka believe that the BJP has not been able to corner the Siddaramaiah government on any substantive issue, instead choosing to harp on minor issues that serve as points to polarise the electorate.
On the contrary, Siddaramaiah managed to put it in a spot by inviting the saffron forces to agitate against the Union government on the burning topic of alleged poor tax allocations to Karnataka.
They also believe that the BJP-JD(S) alliance is unnatural and may backfire, given the fact that JD(S) has evolved with the support of Muslims along with Vokkaligas. A recent episode in Tumkaru where JD(S) and BJP workers clashed in public is a case in point.
Most JD(S) workers believe that they got a poor deal in the alliance – something that has spawned an exodus of junior-level party leaders towards the Congress.
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Then, one of the BJP’s veterans, K.S.Eshwarappa, an important OBC leader in the saffron camp, has launched a diatribe against Yediyurappa over his son being denied a ticket. He had similarly raised his voice during the assembly elections, but the central leadership had been able to control him.
Now, with Eswarappa threatening to contest as an independent from the Shimoga constituency, where Yediyurappa’s son Raghavendra is the official BJP candidate, the saffron party’s internal struggles are out in the open once again.
Such misfires may have prompted the BJP to take some important steps. It has denied tickets to three of its sitting MPs in the Lok Sabha polls.
All three – Anant Kumar Hegde, Pratap Simha, and former state unit president Nalin Kumar Kateel – were replaced by new candidates.
The three are known for their polarising and divisive remarks, with Hegde recently speaking about how a BJP absolute majority was necessary to “change the constitution”.
The BJP’s Bengaluru North candidate and Union minister Shobha Karandlaje, too, stoked a controversy recently over her remarks against Tamil migrants in the city in the aftermath of the Rameshwaram Cafe blast.
She had to apologise for her statements after the central leadership intervened and the Election Commission sought a clarification.
Multiple leaders from the BJP and JD(S) at all levels of the party have joined the Congress ahead of the elections. The BJP, known for its election management machinery nationally, was found wanting when one of their legislators cross-voted and another abstained during the February MLC elections in the state.
The Congress, on the other hand, got a shot in its arm when Shivakumar’s money-laundering case was dismissed by the Supreme Court in early March, amplifying his perception as a fighter-politician.
Shivakumar has shown rather tactical political acumen in recent times while dealing with the BJP’s multi-pronged strategies to corner the opposition.
Having been pushed onto rather shaky ground, the BJP has now invited the controversial Ballari mining baron G. Janardhana Reddy back into its fold after years of keeping a distance from him because of the corruption allegations against him.
Reddy’s inclusion may bring in certain tangible benefits to the party in districts like Ballari, Koppal and Raichur, but will also end up seriously undermining its national rhetoric against corruption.
Karnataka is bracing for yet another fierce electoral battle, where the Congress may spring a surprise against all odds.
