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Kerala 2024: UDF Dominates, BJP Breaks New Ground

politics
Discontent with the eight-year rule of the Left Front government significantly influenced the favour towards the UDF.
Kerala Congress president K. Sudhakaran. Photo: X/@SudhakaranINC
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In a sweeping victory, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) dominated Kerala by capturing 18 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrated a breakthrough as Malayalam actor Suresh Gopi secured a win in Thrissur, marking the party’s first-ever Lok Sabha seat in the state. Meanwhile, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) managed to hold on to just one seat, emerging victorious in Alathur.

In the second phase of the 18th Lok Sabha elections on April 26, Kerala conducted its polling in a single phase. With 20 constituencies in the state, voter turnout stood at 71.27%, with 1,97,77,478 out of the total 2,77,49,158 voters casting their ballots. In the 2019 general elections, the UDF swept 19 seats, while the LDF secured only one seat in Alappuzha.

In the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has crafted another remarkable victory, surpassing his nearest competitor, Annie Raja of the Communist Party of India, by a margin of over 3.6 lakh votes.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

Shafi Parambil’s victory margin of 114,506 votes against K.K. Shailaja of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the Vadakara Lok Sabha constituency marks the highest ever recorded by any United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate or any Congress leader in this region. Parambil secured 557,528 votes (49.65%), while Shailaja garnered 443,022 votes (39.45%).

Praphul Krishnan of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) stood third with 111,979 votes (9.97%). Among the seven assembly constituencies within the Vadakara segment, Shailja maintained a lead of approximately 9,000 votes over Parambil only in Thalassery. In contrast, Parambil led by over 20,000 votes in Vadakara, Kuttiyadi, Nadapuram, Perambra, and Koyilandy, and by over 10,000 votes in Koothuparamba.

In Pathanamthitta , the Congress’s sitting MP Anto Antony, defeated Thomas Isaac, a member of the CPI(M) Central Committee, by a margin of 66,119 votes. Anil Antony, a member of the BJP and the son of former defence minister and Congressman A.K. Antony, considerably decreased the BJP’s vote share in the constituency. The BJP received 2,97,396 votes in 2019, while Anil Antony received 2,34,406 votes in 2024.

Actor and BJP leader Gopi won against CPI candidate V.S. Sunil Kumar in Kerala’s Thrissur constituency by a margin of 74,686 votes. Sunil Kumar secured the second position with 3,37,652 votes, while K. Muraleedharan of the Congress got 3,28,124 votes.

This was the second time Gopi contested for parliament in the constituency. In the 2019 election, T.N. Prathapan, the Congress candidate, defeated him with 1,21,267 votes. However, Gopi’s involvement led to a significant increase in the BJP’s vote share from 11.1% in 2014 to 28.2% in 2019. In the 2021 Kerala state assembly elections, Suresh Gopi ran from the Thrissur segment but lost by 3,806 votes.

AICC General Secretary (Organisation) K.C. Venugopal secured a victory in the Alappuzha constituency by defeating CPI(M) candidate A.M. Arif with a margin of 63,513 votes. Arif, who was the only candidate to win a Lok Sabha seat for the LDF in 2019, faced this defeat. Meanwhile, in Alappuzha, BJP candidate Shobha Surendran made significant strides, substantially increasing the party’s vote share by 111,919 votes.

M.P. Samadani of the IUML clinched victory in Ponnani, securing 450,486 votes, outstripping K.S. Hamza of the CPI(M) by a margin of 2,05,726 votes.

In Kannur, K. Sudhakaran secured a victory over M.V. Jayarajan, surpassing his previous winning margin from 2019. Sudhakaran, who had previously defeated P.K. Sreemathy of the CPI(M) by 94,559 votes, widened his lead to a margin of 1,08,982 votes this time. He garnered a total of 5,18,524 votes, while Jayarajan received 4,09,542 votes.

BJP candidate C. Raghunath trailed with 119,876 votes. Sudhakaran’s success was fuelled by significant support from traditionally Left-leaning constituencies like Taliparamba, Mattanur, Azhikode and Dharmadam.

In one of Kerala’s most tightly contested elections in recent years, sitting MP Adoor Prakash of the UDF narrowly defeated V. Joy of the LDF in the Attingal Lok Sabha constituency by just 684 votes.

Initially, Prakash had a lead of 1,708 votes after the normal rounds of counting. However, the LDF demanded a recount, which reduced the margin. Subsequently, the LDF requested a count of the rejected postal ballots, causing a delay in the final result declaration. Despite these efforts, the LDF was unable to reclaim the stronghold it had lost to the UDF in 2019 after three consecutive victories.

Prakash garnered 3,28,051 votes, narrowly beating Joy, who received 3,27,367 votes. Union minister of state for external affairs V. Muraleedharan, the BJP candidate, secured 3,11,779 votes, turning it into a tight three-way race. The BJP saw its vote share rise from 24.97% to 31.64%, with an increase of over 59,000 votes compared to the 2019 general elections, making inroads into some traditional LDF and UDF strongholds. This marks a significant growth from 2014, when the party secured only 10% of the votes. Notably, despite the close competition among the top three candidates, NOTA emerged fourth with 9,791 votes.

K. Radhakrishnan, the sitting minister for welfare of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Backward Classes, Devaswoms, parliamentary affairs of the Government of Kerala, emerged as a beacon of hope for the LDF amidst the overwhelming victory of the UDF in the State. His triumph over UDF incumbent Ramya Haridas by a margin of 20,111 votes in Alathur secured his position as the sole LDF representative from Kerala in the 18th Lok Sabha.

Radhakrishnan secured 4,03,447 votes (40.66%), surpassing Haridas who received 3,83,336 votes (38.63%), out of the total 9,92,268 votes counted. His victory is particularly remarkable given the challenging circumstances amidst a sweeping victory for the UDF across the state.

In Alathur, where the BJP’s influence is perceived to be limited, Sarasu garnered 1.88 lakh votes (19%), a significant increase from the 89,837 votes (8.82%) received by NDA candidate T.V. Babu in 2019.

Discontent with the eight-year rule of the Left Front government significantly influenced the favour towards the UDF. Initial evaluations of the election results indicate a noticeable shift in support from minority Muslim and Christian voters in Kerala, who previously backed the LDF in the 2021 assembly elections, towards the Congress.

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), enacted by the BJP government shortly before the election schedule announcement, emerged as a focal point for the LDF’s campaign in Kerala. While criticising the Congress for its stance on the CAA, the LDF accused the party of taking a soft Hindutva approach and lacking clarity on the issue. However, on the ground, minorities, apprehensive about the potential return of the BJP for a third term, felt that the Left’s influence was predominantly limited to Kerala and had little impact on a national level in countering the BJP.

The NDA not only achieved its inaugural victory in Kerala but also played a substantial role in augmenting the overall vote share that bolstered the UDF’s stronghold across various constituencies. This highlights the growing influence and impact of the BJP-led coalition in the state’s political landscape.

Anusha Paul is a journalist based in Kerala.

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