The Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) lost the by-election in Rupauli – the sole assembly constituency in Bihar that went to the polls among 13 others across seven states on July 10. But it was not a gain for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) either, for an independent candidate won the seat.
Rupauli is a segment of the Purnea Lok Sabha seat. Coincidentally, Pappu Yadav, contesting as an independent, wrested it from the JD(U) in the May general elections.
Rupauli, straddled in the riverine belt of what is known as Bihar’s Seemanchal region, bordering West Bengal, Nepal and Bangladesh, seems insignificant to some observers. However, it is not the case. The JD(U) has lost the seat at a time when it is engaged in the significant task of finding a successor to the aging and ailing Nitish Kumar, by far the most credible leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the state.
The continued potency of the JD(U) as a political force in the run-up to the assembly elections, due late next year, is also crucial for the NDA. This is especially important considering that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is losing his “centrality” in political discussions on the streets, if not on social media or among his diehard fans.
The victory of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) nominees in ten constituencies against the BJP’s two out of the 13 assembly seats has spurred talks about the incremental loss of “brand Modi” in north India. More than Rupauli, Bihar’s voters are discussing the saffron party’s loss in Uttarakhand’s Badrinath after Faizabad (Ayodhya) in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh.
Who after Nitish?
Back to Nitish: by all accounts, Nitish Kumar to the NDA in Bihar is what Narendra Modi is to the BJP in Gujarat. Successive elections from 2015 onward have proved that the stratagem of Modi and his aid and Union home minister, Amit Shah, can’t succeed in the state unless Nitish is on their side.
In the last Lok Sabha polls too, the JD(U) performed slightly better than the BJP in terms of contesting and winning seats – the BJP contested 17 seats and won 12, and the JD(U) won 12 out of the 16 it contested.
It’s not that Nitish – be it for reasons of age, health or otherwise – is not serious about his successor. He anointed Ram Chandra Prasad Singh (RCP), a former IAS officer, as JD(U) president five years ago and delegated him a fair amount of liberty in the party and in governance.
However, RCP fell from Nitish’s grace for his alleged “proximity” with Modi and Shah ahead of the JD(U) joining the Mahagathbandhan in 2022.
Parallel to experimenting with RCP, Nitish drafted Prashant Kishore, the election strategist-turned-political activist, as his party’s national vice president. However, Kishore fell out with Nitish on the issue of the JD(U) supporting the Citizenship Amendment Act.
Now the former election strategist, who is credited with having strategised election campaigns for several parties across north and south India, is on a padyatra (foot march) in Bihar’s hinterlands. He has announced that he will form his own political party by October that will contest the polls in all 243 seats of the state on its own.
Recently, the Bihar CM has anointed another former IAS officer and an alumnus of the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Manish Verma, as the party’s national general secretary. Like RCP, Manish shares a Kurmi caste kinship with Nitish. Besides, he hails from Nalanda, the CM’s home district.
There are no reasons to doubt the political talent of either RCP or Manish Verma. But it is not easy to don Nitish’s shoes either.
Nitish started off as a student leader in the 1970s and transcended into a dexterous socialist activist in the 1980s. He won Lok Sabha elections six times, getting the exposure of managing key portfolios in Union ministries for a long period. He struggled for 12 years to replace the mighty “Lalu-Rabri regime”, which he finally did in 2005.
Nitish is armed with enough experience and expertise in handling state and national political operations. Despite his long political career, he has been known for his sagacity, diligence and hard work. In this context, it is premature to suggest that Manish Verma will turn out to be a perfect successor to Nitish.
Also read | Decoding the Mandate in Bihar: Fresh Lease of Life for Nitish, Resurgence of the Left
Tejashwi’s challenge
Unlike the JD(U), the RJD doesn’t suffer from a crisis of succession. Party chief Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son Tejashwi Yadav emerged as his rightful successor by spearheading the RJD’s emergence as the single-largest party in the 2020 assembly elections. And by working as a deputy to Nitish for two stints, he has fair experience with governance too. As a leader of opposition in the Bihar assembly, he has been performing stupendously.
But the RJD led-INDIA parties failed to perform up to expectations in the Lok Sabha elections in the state, as opposed to the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance and the All India Trinamool Congress, who inflicted a body blow to the Hindutva party in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal respectively.
The primary reason for the INDIA bloc’s poor show in Bihar was Nitish switching sides to the NDA ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, and the Bihar CM largely keeping his hold on the extremely backward classes (EBCs), who account for 36.6% of the state’s population, according to the caste survey conducted by the Mahagathbandhan government ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.
Much ahead of Modi coming out with his welfare schemes involving five kilograms of free rations and Rs 6,000 per annum to farmers under the Kisan Samman Yojana, Nitish reserved 50% of seats for EBCs and Scheduled Caste women in local bodies, and initiated a plethora of schemes for the economic and social empowerment of the women and marginalised sections.
There is no doubt that Tejashwi has an impregnable hold on his party’s Yadav-Muslim combination, which together accounts for about 31% of the state’s electorate. But it is not adequate to register a credible win against the JD(U) in company with the BJP, which enjoys the support of caste Hindus and business communities.
The INDIA bloc did reasonably well in the old Shahabad and Magadh regions of south Bihar, but failed miserably in north Bihar. Moreover, the RJD can be held responsible for the strategic failures in north Bihar.
For instance, the party displayed ‘obstinacy’ by denying a ticket to Pappu Yadav – a popular leader of the Kosi region. Though Pappu has won and has declared himself as part of the INDIA bloc, the raw deal to him in the Lok Sabha polls may have adversely impacted the poll results at least in three to four Lok Sabha constituencies in the Kosi-Seemanchal region.
The RJD’s poor show in the by-election for Rupauli is also attributed to its strategic failure.
Besides, the INDIA bloc failed to handle the Siwan Lok Sabha seat where Heena Sahab, widow of former RJD strongman Mohammad Shahabuddin, contested as an independent. The CPI-ML (Liberation), which has won two out of three Lok Sabha seats it contested, had a valid claim on Siwan.
Despite all these shortcomings, Tejashwi is the strongest bet for the INDIA bloc in the state. By handing out nearly five lakh jobs during his short stint as deputy chief minister and sticking to the issue of unemployment – the biggest stigma for PM Modi – Tejashwi has carved out a niche for himself among the youths of all sections.
But he will have to work diligently to impregnate Nitish’s EBC space. The plus point with Tejashwi is that age and energy are on his side.
Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author, media educator and independent researcher in folklore.
