Gwalior: On October 2, Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a public meeting in Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh, in which Jyotiraditya Scindia, a prominent face of the politics of Gwalior-Chambal region, was also present along with chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar, state home minister Narottam Mishra, and others from the Bharatiya Janata Party’s top brass.
The venue was spread over several pandals, or pavilions, connected through an asphalt path laid from the entrance to the stage through which Modi reached the stage in an open vehicle along with chief minister Shivraj Singh and BJP state president V.D. Sharma. However, Scindia could not find a place on the vehicle carrying the prime minister. He did not even address the rally.
In contrast, during the last assembly elections, when Scindia was a member of the Congress party and Rahul Gandhi did a roadshow in Gwalior, Scindia was present next to Gandhi throughout the rally.
In the last elections, Scindia was the prime target of the BJP when they raised the slogan ‘Maaf karo Maharaj, humara neta Shivraj (Leave us alone, Maharaj (Scindia), our leader is Shivraj)’ while his speeches were the centre of attraction among the public. Poll results in Chambal reflected his popularity with the Congress winning 26 out of 34 seats. Out of all the six regions, Congress had performed the best here.
He was the chairman of the state Congress election campaign committee back then. Today, he is a BJP MP and Union minister but does not hold any major responsibility for the upcoming assembly elections, despite the sorry state of the party in the region. Even the posters for the BJP’s election campaign carry a tiny photo of Scindia somewhere in the back though he appears prominently in the election campaign of his supporters.
This is why speculation has been rife about the decline in Scindia’s stature in the BJP for some time. The rumours grew stronger after his loyalists, who had rallied behind him to join the BJP, started returning to the Congress one after the other a few months ago. Some prominent names among these are Baijnath Singh Yadav, Rakesh Gupta, Pramod Tandon and Samandar Singh Patel.
BJP leaders Jyotiraditya Scindia (L), J.P. Nadda (centre) and Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Photo: Facebook/Shivraj Singh Chouhan
The ‘reverse race’ of Scindia loyalists to Congress
Rakesh Gupta, who was the working district president of Congress in Shivpuri district, had defected to the BJP with Scindia. Though the BJP had appointed him as the district vice president, he recently left Scindia’s camp and returned to Congress.
Speaking to The Wire, he said, “Scindia had a different charm in the Congress, he was completely independent. At least in Madhya Pradesh, there was no leader who could control him. He was a ‘super power’. He also used to pay heed to party workers. But in the BJP there are many factions above him. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is also there. There are several factions of the BJP within Chambal itself. He is facing difficulty in finding his foot, but that’s his concern. We couldn’t strike a balance.”
Former party vice president of the Pohri tehsil in Shivpuri district, Arvind Dhakad, is also among the Scindia loyalists who defected to the BJP from Congress and has now done a ‘ghar wapsi’ to Congress. He has claimed the ticket from Pohri.
Also read: Three More Madhya Pradesh BJP Leaders, Including a Scindia Loyalist, Join Congress
“Earlier, in Chambal, Congress was synonymous with the name of Scindia,” he said. “The BJP has many prominent leaders like Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar, state home minister Narottam Mishra, and state president V.D. Sharma. Therefore, factionalism is natural. Besides, Scindia’s clout has also reduced to half after switching parties because half of his supporters stayed behind in the Congress. Now, due to retrenchment among those accompanying him, he has become even weaker.”
“He does not enjoy the same authority in the BJP as he did in the Congress,” he added. “When he was in the Congress, the grievances of party workers were heard and resolved swiftly. But now there is no hearing. He paid heed only to those MLAs who were with him when he left the Congress and to those few who surrounded him. The rest of his supporters were completely ignored. The BJP did not accept us but he did nothing despite repeatedly being told about it. Those who rallied behind him are full of remorse now and will return. Many of them have already returned, the rest will soon follow suit.”
In this regard, a Congress leader and former Scindia loyalist who had chosen to remain in the Congress at the time of the coup in the state told The Wire, “Even though people have defected to the BJP with Maharaj, we often talk to each other as our relations have hardly changed. They claim that Maharaj does not have the same status in the BJP as he had in the Congress; he has no monopoly in decision-making whereas during his time in Congress, he used to distribute tickets whether it was councillor or assembly polls in the area.”
A senior journalist based in Gwalior-Chambal, Dev Shrimali said, “Scindia was the balancing power within the Congress. Whether he became the chief minister or not he was the ‘super CM’ of his area. Imagine if 20-22 MLAs could leave the party at his bidding, how many tickets would have been distributed at his behest? The Scindia family had a powerful place in Congress because they could topple the government, and they did. Now, in the BJP, if he is no longer able to topple the government, he would lose his relevance.”
“Therefore, when Scindia’s own cut-outs are nowhere to be seen in the BJP’s campaign, it is but natural for his supporters to feel estranged. As a result, they are gradually returning to Congress,” he added.
A possible reason behind the decline in his influence is the fact that Chambal remained a stronghold for the Congress even after Scindia joined the BJP. It was perceived at the time of his departure that the party would face an existential crisis in the region.
“I had a close association with Scindia ji for about 10-12 years, but in vain,” said Arvind Dhakad. “Actually, in the Gwalior-Chambal region, he was considered the sole leader in the Congress whose word was taken seriously. As a result, we also had to join them. After he left the party, we felt that there was no leader left in the Congress, so we also followed him.”
According to Arvind, when the Congress stayed strong in the region despite Scindia’s departure, he realised that the latter was only “exploiting us for so many years”.
Meanwhile, the return of the Scindia loyalists to the Congress has raised eyebrows in various quarters.
Questioning the morality of the leaders who left the Scindia camp and returned to the Congress, a leader of Shivpuri district Congress said, “These people went along Scindia because the BJP was in power and they wanted to milk the situation. Now, when they saw Scindia’s declining stature and the possibility of Congress forming the government, they have returned. If the BJP forms government, won’t they repent and join hands with Scindia again?”
BJP leader and Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia at an event in Gwalior. Photo: X/ @JM_Scindia.
Responding to this charge candidly, Rakesh Gupta said, “Leaders always have expectations. When big leaders can look after their own interests then what is the harm if small leaders like us look after our interests? Big leaders switch parties, once, twice and even four times depending on the situation. But we have only returned to our home (original party).”
Resentment among BJP cadre
Even as Scindia’s supporters are deserting him, his presence in the party has left the BJP workers miffed. Some BJP leaders in various areas of the state left the party alleging that Scindia supporters are being given more importance in their respective assembly seats. Most of them are leaders who were replaced by Scindia supporters in their assembly seats.
Deepak Joshi, who had been a minister in the state government, had lost the Hatpipliya seat to Congress’s Manoj Choudhary in 2018. Later, Choudhary joined the BJP and the party made him its candidate in the by-election. Former MLA Bhanwar Singh Shekhawat, who was associated with the BJP since the 1990s, had also lost to Rajyavardhan Singh Dattigaon of Congress from Badnavar seat in 2018. Disappointed with his ticket cut from this seat after Dattigaon also joined the BJP, Shekhawat left the party and joined Congress. Similarly, sitting Kolaras MLA Virendra Raghuvanshi was upset with Scindia supporter Mahendra Singh Yadav being given more preference in his constituency.
Also read: Here’s What Jyotiraditya Scindia Said While Joining the BJP
Prabhuram Chaudhary, a state cabinet minister, is an MLA from Sanchi assembly seat. Santosh Malviya was aspiring to contest elections on a BJP ticket from here. But after the party gave preference to Scindia loyalist, Chaudhary, he got upset and left the party. One of his relatives, district panchayat member Preeti Malviya also bid adieu to the BJP.
“I have been associated with the BJP since 2013,” said Malviya. “I contested four elections, twice for councillor and twice for district panchayat, and won all of them. After Scindia and his men joined the BJP, the original workers of the party were ignored. People who had defected to the BJP from Congress began dominating the Sanchi assembly constituency. When I felt I was being discriminated against, I left the party.”
Therefore, it is also strongly believed that the BJP’s central leadership will keep a close eye on the ‘Scindia factor’ in the upcoming assembly elections and Scindia will also be under pressure from his supporters for victory. On the other hand, the BJP can pressurise Scindia by insisting on how it sacrificed its own leaders and workers for his sake.
Confusion in ticket distribution in the Scindia camp
After looking at the list of tickets distributed by the BJP so far, it seems that the party is perplexed about letting Scindia supporters contest the elections.
When Scindia left Congress and joined the BJP in 2020, 19 of his supporter MLAs also rallied behind him. In the by-elections, the BJP gave tickets to all 19 Scindia supporters from their respective assembly seats. Of them, 13 won and 6 lost. Out of these 13, nine were also handed cabinet berths in the Shivraj government.
This time, the BJP has so far declared the names of its candidates in 136 out of 230 assembly seats, which includes 11 out of 19 assembly seats held by Scindia supporters. The BJP had won six out of these 11 seats in the by-elections. The party has handed tickets to Scindia supporters (including five ministers) in these six seats again but has cancelled the tickets of Scindia loyalists in three out of five seats on which it had earlier lost.
Meanwhile, out of eight seats where the party has not yet declared candidates for Scindia supporters, there are seven MLAs from the Scindia camp, including four ministers. The party had declared the names of only the present ministers and MLAs in its fourth list excluding the names of these seven pro-Scindia MLAs/ministers.
Similarly, in the initial three lists of candidates, the BJP had announced its candidates for the lost seats, but the name of Scindia supporter Munnalal Goyal from the Gwalior East seat was not included.
Overall, out of 19 MLAs who joined the BJP following Scindia, only eight have got tickets till now, three have had their tickets cancelled while tickets for eight of them are pending. The only relief for Scindia is that his supporters have got tickets in two additional seats (Bhitarwar and Raghogarh). But so far only 10 of his supporters have been given tickets by the BJP. The tickets of some of the eight MLAs which are in limbo are likely to be cut.
Describing the current election as a ‘litmus test’ for Scindia, journalist Shrimali said, “His base has weakened because a large number of leaders and voters having the Congress ideology have not drifted towards the BJP with him. He also lost the elections (Guna Lok Sabha), due to which his influence as a celebrity also suffered a blow. This election is like a test for him to prove that he has managed to save his fort.”
Notably, several Congress district presidents in the Gwalior-Chambal region did not switch parties with Scindia despite the fact that he had helped them climb the political ladder.
“Scindia is definitely a prominent leader, but the BJP is a cadre-based party,” added Shrimali. “In this respect, he will be counted only after Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Narendra Singh Tomar, Kailash Vijayvargiya, etc. He is also aware that he is sitting in someone else’s house. He had brought along his clan of supporters whose future revolves around him. As a result, a parallel unit is running in the BJP. At present, he is in the good books of the party high command which is why he still commands some influence. Had it been somebody else, it would be worse.”
Jayant Singh Tomar, who teaches journalism in Gwalior-Chambal, said that Scindia’s leadership is in the hands of the central leadership of the party.
“Scindia no longer has an aura in the BJP the way he did in the Congress,” he observed. “There are so many leaders and Scindia will have to adjust with them. The importance he gets depends on the will and grace of the BJP’s central leadership. And since there is a trend in the present BJP to use everyone as a pawn, Scindia is also a pawn who can be promoted at any time to bring down other leaders.”
Translated from Hindi by Naushin Rehman. Read the Hindi original here.
