Among the states that have savagely cut down the odious Modi-Shah-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) regime to size in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were the two with the largest number of MPs in the country — Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Both these states are currently ruled by the BJP.
Uttar Pradesh, with 80 Lok Sabha seats, gave 43 seats to the INDIA bloc, an increase of 37 compared to 2019; it gave 36 seats to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a drop of 28. One independent has won there. There is no doubt that there was an extraordinary performance by the INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Coming to Maharashtra, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 23 seats (27.84 % votes), Shiv Sena got 18 seats (23.5 % votes) — overall the National Democratic Alliance got 51.34 % votes. While the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) had won four seats (15.66 % votes), the Congress party for one seat (16.41 % votes) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was reduced to five seats (32.01 % votes) and AIMIM (Aurangabad) got one seat (0.73 % votes) and an Independent won the Amravati seat.
In a sharp contrast, 30 out of the 48 seats in Maharashtra are won by the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi-INDIA (MVA-INDIA) this time — an increase of 25 seats compared to 2019. The NDA has only 17 seats which is a a drop of 24 and an independent Congress rebel has won who he is likely to return to the MVA.
Three Union ministers of the BJP were resoundingly defeated – Raosaheb Danve from Jalna, Bharati Pawar from Dindori (ST), and Kapil Patil from Bhiwandi – and 20 sitting MPs, almost all from the NDA, were also defeated.
The Congress has emerged as the single largest party after winning 13 of the 17 seats(16.9 %) it has contested, followed by Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) which won nine out of the 21 seats (16.7 %) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) secured eight of ten (10.3 %). Whereas, the BJP has won nine out of the 28 seats (26.1 %) it has contested, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) got seven out of the 15 seats (13 %) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) only won one out of the four seats (3.6 %). Interestingly, the Mumbai North West seat was won by the Shinde Sena over the Thackeray Sena by only 48 votes, after recounts. The result will likely be challenged in the courts.
While this is certainly a welcome development, the voting percentage of the two fronts is too close for comfort. For MVA-INDIA it is 44 %, and for NDA it is 43.6 %.
Notably, the MVA fought this election with its back to the wall. As far as the SS and NCP were concerned, under pressure from the the BJP, the Election Commission of India (ECI) gave both the name of the party and its symbol to the rebel factions led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar, respectively. The original parties led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar were forced to take new election symbols. Moreover, money and media power were obviously controlled by the BJP but the MVA fought back unitedly with grit and determination and the electorates supported the alliance.
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The Maharashtra Lok Sabha results have become even more significant because the state will have assembly elections within the next four more months in October 2024. In a detailed write-up titled “The Maharashtra Lok Sabha Election Scene”, written and published on People’s Dispatch before the results were declared, we had concluded as follows, “To sum up, if it is a reasonably fair election, it surely seems to be advantage MVA-INDIA, which should be able to win more than half the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra this time, as against only five seats which the Opposition had won in the state in 2019. That in itself would be a big and significant advance in this crucial nationwide battle for the defence of the livelihood of the people, and for the defence of democracy, secularism and the Constitution itself.”
This assessment has been vindicated by the results.
What led to this result?
A preliminary analysis of the Maharashtra Lok Sabha election results reveal the following main reasons for the NDA’s setback and the MVA’s victory.
First, the voters were sick of the BJP and its corrupt and immoral acts in the state in the last two years, which resulted in the splits in the SS, and then in the NCP, and then again nibbling at some of the Congress leaders. Over 80 MLAs out of the 100-odd MLAs of the SS and the NCP together were induced to support the BJP by using a combination of threats and blandishments. It was through such dirty conspiracies that the discredited Shinde-Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar state government was brought into existence. The corrupt and unprincipled splintering of the SS and NCP led to a big sympathy wave for their original leaders and activists.
In such a situation, the veteran NCP leader of many battles Sharad Pawar, SS leader Uddhav Thackeray, and Congress leader Nana Patole, spearheaded the resistance of the people against this political chicanery, and strengthened the unity of the MVA, which was further buttressed by the formation of the INDIA bloc at the national level.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha and assembly elections also, Sharad Pawar had played a salutary role of fighting against the BJP. The most high-profile Lok Sabha election contest in Maharashtra this time was between Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule and Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar. Sule won by over 1.5 lakh votes. The MVA leaders addressed scores of huge public meetings as part of their election campaign.
Second factor was clearly the economic distress. The growing unemployment crisis, inflation, agrarian distress, education, health and food security-related issues pertaining the state over the last few years played a major part in ensuring the alienation of the people from the BJP-NDA. In the agrarian sector, the falling prices of onions, cotton, soyabean, sugarcane and milk became a major issue. So also were the issues like recurring drought, unseasonal rains and hailstorms for which no relief were forthcoming.
The anger of the scheme workers and other unorganised sections was palpable. Naturally, the issue of economic distress had repercussions in all the regions of the state. As against the election campaign by Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Adityanath, J.P. Nadda, Devendra Fadnavis, and other BJP leaders who only tried to create and intensify communal polarisation, the MVA-INDIA election campaign concentrated on these burning issues of the people and tried to put forth alternatives.
Also read: INDIA Dominates Maharashtra; BJP+ Edged Out By Junior Allies, Maratha Anger, Livelihood Woes
Third factor was that of caste and reservations. This was a direct result of the agrarian crisis and burgeoning unemployment as discussed earlier. But it should be noted that in the Marathwada region, where the Maratha quota stir was the most intense, the BJP could not win even a single of the eight MP seats in the region. In other regions also it hit the BJP. Another significant feature of this election was the massive support of Muslims and other minorities to the MVA-INDIA bloc. This support also extended to the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) group, because of it being a part of the MVA along with the Congress and the NCP, and also because Uddhav Thackeray as the chief minister had taken a secular stand, moving away from his father’s style of functioning.
The fourth factor was the electorates themselves isolating the traditional spoilers like the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar, the AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaissi, and others. Although the VBA put up its candidates in around 35 Lok Sabha seats, unlike in 2019, it could not achieve its desired aim of helping the BJP win, except perhaps in the Akola Lok Sabha seat in Vidarbha, which Prakash Ambedkar himself contested, and where he came third behind the BJP and the Congress. This trend was one of the welcome features of this election. In three other seats also, viz. Buldhana, Hatkanangale, and Mumbai North West, the votes polled by the VBA were more than the victory margins of the BJP-NDA candidates. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the VBA had helped the BJP-NDA to win in 11 seats.
The fifth factor was the attack on Maharashtrian identity and pride. In the past few years, a large number of industries and projects which had been earmarked for Maharashtra were arbitrarily shifted to Gujarat by the Modi regime. This was a source of great heartburn, because it adversely affected employment and development. On top of that, in his election speeches in Maharashtra, Modi insulted MVA leaders by calling Sharad Pawar a “bhatakti aatma” (wandering soul). He also called Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena a “nakli” (fake) Sena. All this was naturally used by the MVA campaign to attack the BJP-NDA for insulting Maharashtrian identity and pride. This issue had big repercussions throughout the state.
Sixth factor was independent media. This time several popular outlets and YouTube channels were seen by lakhs of people, giving a stiff competition to the corporate media, and exposing its increasing loss of credibility. Also, several social organisations came together and hit the streets by organising public meetings and other imaginative programmes under different banners, like the ‘Nirbhay Bano Andolan’, ‘Nirdhar Maharashtracha (Determination of Maharashtra)’, and so on. With the encouraging poll results in the country and the state, this trend is sure to intensify in future.
Seventh and last factor was, of course, the paramount issue in this whole election throughout the country — the defence of democracy, secularism, and the Constitution. The ‘400 paar’ slogan of the BJP was rightly interpreted by large sections of the people as showing its malignant intention to change and destroy the Constitution, and attack the rights given therein to the economically exploited and the socially oppressed. This became a major issue for Dalits because Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar is regarded as one of the prime architects of the Constitution of India. But it was not an issue only for Dalits. It influenced vast sections of the patriotic people in the state and the country. And the MVA-INDIA election campaign rightly focussed on this issue. This concerted campaign, therefore, had the desired impact.
After this victory in the Lok Sabha elections, the MVA-INDIA bloc will have to be even more vigilant, and redouble its efforts and its inclusivity to perform well against the NDA partners in the ensuing assembly elections in Maharashtra.
Ashok Dhawale is the president of the All India Kisan Sabha.
Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.
